We’re stoical but optimistic about future, Newspoll finds

A majority of voters are resigned to another year of Covid-19 disruption but remain optimistic about Australia’s future.

A majority of voters are resigned to another year of Covid-19 disruption to their lives but generally remain optimistic about Australia’s overall future, believing the pandemic is being better managed here than in most other countries.

An exclusive Newspoll conducted for The Australian shows 52 per cent of voters are pessimistic about their lives getting back to normal by the end of 2022, following a warning from health officials that the Omicron outbreak could peak again in winter.

The gloomy outlook for a quick end to the pandemic is most profound in Victoria, with 56 per cent of voters saying they are pessimistic and 51 per cent in NSW.

Queenslanders are slightly more optimistic that things will improve.

This is despite a strong endorsement of Australia’s management of the pandemic when compared internationally, with 48 per cent saying Australia has outshone other developed nations compared to 25 per cent believing it has been worse and 25 per cent saying it has been about the same.

Despite the sober view of the year ahead, there was a more general positive outlook for the country, with 55 per cent of voters saying they are optimistic about Australia’s future compared with 40 per cent feeling pessimistic.

The pulse of the nation poll gauging voter outlook ahead of a May election follows the first Newspoll of the year, published in Monday’s The Australian, which showed a sharp downturn in the Coalition’s election prospects over summer and a fall in approval for Scott Morrison as Prime Minister.

Popular support for the federal Coalition slumped to the lowest levels since the 2018 Liberal leadership spill, with the primary vote falling two points to 34 per cent against a three-point rise for Labor to 41 per cent.

This resulted in a lift in the two-party-preferred lead for Labor of 53-47 in December to 56-44 in the first pre-election poll of 2022.

A historical analysis of News­poll results suggest the government still has time to turn things around.

 

The analysis showed that no government that had hit 44 per cent or lower has failed to lift its two-party-preferred vote. The analysis covers the ­period since the 2001 election when Newspoll began regularly calculating preference distributions.

The Howard government hit 42 per cent five weeks before the 2017 election and lifted to 47.6 per cent at the election.

The Gillard government hit 42 per cent three months before the 2013 election and lifted to 50 per cent five weeks later after the leadership change to Kevin Rudd but dropped to 46.5 per cent at the election

The Morrison government hit 44 per cent eight months before the 2019 election and lifted to 49 per cent in April 2019 before winning with 51.5 per cent.

Josh Frydenberg on Monday defended the Morrison government’s pandemic record in light of the most recent Newspoll results, which showed Labor was now considered by slightly more voters at being better placed to lead a pandemic recovery than the Coalition.

The Treasurer said the only poll that counted was the one held on election day. “Many obituaries were written by those in the media and our political opponents (in 2019) who got ahead of themselves,” Mr Frydenberg told Sky News.

 

“At the same time, there is a message in that Newspoll and that is that many Australians continue to do it very tough.”

Despite pandemic disruptions, Mr Frydenberg said Australia continues to perform well by any international comparison, particularly on mortality and vaccination rates.

“We have one of the lowest mortality rates in the world,” the Treasurer said.

“The vaccination rate for first doses is above 95 per cent (and) second dose is now about 93 per cent. The boosters are rolling out, with more than seven million have been distributed. The kids are back at school this week.”