Omicron has destroyed any hopes Scott Morrison may have harboured of using the summer to rebuild electoral support heading into an election campaign.
The Coalition appears to be drifting towards defeat unless the Prime Minister can reset the agenda and take back command of the political contest.
The first Newspoll of 2022 shows just how great the challenge is for the government. The ground the Coalition has to make up between now and May is considerable. And while it has done this before, the difference between now and September 2018 – the last time the polls for the Coalition were this bad – was that Bill Shorten was unpopular and Morrison was not. That dynamic has been reversed.
Tuesday’s National Press Club address becomes even more critical to Morrison’s task. Colleagues will be looking to his first headland speech of the year for a clear signal there is a political strategy.
The shift in voter sentiment has been significant. Labor’s seven-point primary vote lead is the greatest the opposition has enjoyed this term, unsurprising perhaps considering the perception that the response to Omicron – in particular the supply of RATS and empty supermarket shelves – has been one of mismanagement.
It matters not that the state and territory governments share equal if not greater blame for any or all of it. The culpability has been sheeted home to the commonwealth, largely from the premiers’ blame-shifting mastery of the politics.
Morrison’s initial decision to shelve politics when it came to the premiers was based on the assumption he would get credit for Covid-19 management. That appears to be eluding him.
What will concern Liberal Party strategists is what is lurking beneath the headline numbers.
The Coalition has lost a clear advantage on the two key issues it believes still swing in its favour. It is now behind Labor on which is considered the better party to lead the Covid-19 recovery and is only two points ahead on jobs and managing the economy. It should be a mile in front.
This is now an issue for Josh Frydenberg and the early March budget. It suggests a disconnect between the government’s high-level narrative around positive economic indicators and people’s real-world experience – namely inflation.
Morrison hasn’t been helped in that for the past month Anthony Albanese has traversed the east coast with a small-target strategy using boutique announcements as backdrops for daily attacks on Morrison.
Meanwhile, the PM has been largely confined to his office having to deal with day-to-day Covid-19 management.
Albanese has had a relatively free ride when it comes to the scrutiny that was applied to Shorten.
This will soon change and a clearer picture will emerge as to whether this poll is an expression of voter anger following a third ruined summer in a row, or a demonstration of real voter intention.
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