Newspoll: Labor favourite with voters to defeat Scott Morrison’s government in federal election

Voters believe Labor will win the next election after Newspoll confirmed the Coalition is once again the underdog.

Anthony Albanese’s Labor Party leads the two-party preferred race over the Coalition – 53-47 per cent. Picture: Flavio Brancaleone

Labor is the favourite among voters to win the next federal election, confirming the Coalition as the underdog in the 2022 race, ­despite a similar prediction before the 2019 contest in which Scott Morrison stole a surprise victory.

An exclusive Newspoll conducted for The Australian shows 47 per cent of voters believe Labor will form the next government following an election expected in March or May.

While just 37 per cent expect the Coalition to be returned for a fourth term, the scales are far more evenly balanced than three years ago when only 24 per cent believed the Coalition would win and 55 per cent tipped Bill Shorten to be the next prime minister.

 

The direct electoral contest ­remains largely unchanged, with Labor leading the two-party preferred race over the Coalition – 53-47 per cent – on a primary vote of 38 per cent.

The only substantial shift is a lift in approval for Labor leader Anthony Albanese who now leads Scott Morrison on this measure for the first time since March last year.

The Coalition primary vote fell a point to 36 per cent while the Greens also lost a point to finish the year on 10 per cent.

Scott Morrison, right, with Mark Skaife before a lap around Mount Panorama outside Bathurst in the NSW central west on Sunday. Picture: Tim Hunter.

Pauline Hanson’s One Nation improved a point to 3 per cent with other minor parties also gaining a point to 13 per cent.

This is the equal highest vote for independents and minor parties this term after recording 11.8 per cent at the last election. This group includes Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party and the Katter party.

The status quo result follows a tumultuous final sitting fortnight of parliament this year, during which Coalition MPs crossed the floor to protest against state-­imposed vaccine mandates, a federal integrity commission and the government’s own religious discrimination bill.

Mr Morrison was also forced to bench Education Minister Alan Tudge, who stepped aside from cabinet pending an investigation into a relationship he had with a former staffer.

The poll was conducted ­between Wednesday and Saturday but with most surveys completed before the release of Labor’s climate change policy last Friday afternoon.

In the contest between the two leaders Mr Morrison dropped a point as the preferred prime ­minister to 45 per cent and Mr ­Albanese lost two points to 34 per cent while 19 per cent were uncommitted. Mr Morrison’s approval ratings remained unchanged on the previous poll three weeks ago with 44 per cent satisfied with his performance and 52 per cent saying they were dissatisfied – a net negative ­approval rating of minus eight.

Mr Albanese’s approval rating lifted two points to 39 per cent while those dissatisfied fell three points to 45 per cent – a net negative approval rating of minus six.

This is the first time the Opposition Leader has enjoyed a lead in net approval since March last year.

The gap in expectations of who will win the 2022 election is the closest since the 2013 election, reflecting expectations that the contest will be closely fought and the possibility of a hung parliament.

Voters were split along state lines in their views on which party they think will win.

A majority of voters in Queensland – 45 per cent compared to 42 per cent – said they expected the Coalition to win the election. Opinion was split the other way most strongly in Victoria with 49 per cent believing Labor would win compared to 33 per cent tipping the Coalition. Female voters were also less likely to believe Labor would win than male voters, while expectations of an Albanese-led victory were strongest among younger voters.

In the lead up to the 2016 election, 55 per cent of voters believed the Turnbull government would be returned compared with just 25 per cent believing Labor would win. This was reversed six months out from the 2019 election, with 55 per cent expecting Mr Shorten to win the election and just 24 per cent believing Mr Morrison would win.