Victorian election: Despite a swing, Newspoll puts Daniel Andrews on track to win
Despite the ALP’s primary vote falling almost five points since the 2018 election, Daniel Andrews remains on track to become Victoria’s longest-serving Labor Premier.
Daniel Andrews is poised to secure a historic third term despite a swing against Labor, with Newspoll showing him on track to retain a diminished majority.
A two-party-preferred result of 54.5-45.5 per cent ahead of Saturday’s Victorian election represents a 2.8 per cent swing against Labor since 2018, and compares with 54-46 three weeks ago.
It has the government on track to retain 45 to 50 of its 55 seats in the 88-seat parliament, allowing Mr Andrews to overtake John Cain Jr as Victoria’s longest-serving Labor premier.
While Labor’s primary vote has fallen almost five points since the 2018 election to 38 per cent, Matthew Guy’s Coalition remains steady at 35 per cent, with Greens and independents the beneficiaries on 12 and 15 per cent respectively. The result compares with the major parties’ primaries being level on 37 per cent three weeks ago, showing a slump in support for the Coalition and a slight improvement for Labor over the course of the campaign.
The polling comes as both leaders hit the hustings on the penultimate day of campaigning, with Mr Guy at Ballarat’s Sovereign Hill to announce plans to attract more flights and therefore tourists to Victoria.
Having voted early in the city with his family on Thursday night, Mr Andrews meanwhile met apprentices at an industrial park in Knox, in Melbourne’s east, before heading to a kindergarten for his third visit of the campaign to the Greens-targeted inner-city seat of Northcote.
Mr Guy urged Victorians not to “wake up on Sunday with a Daniel Andrews hangover”.
“Change the government. Give us that confidence on Saturday. We will not fail you. We will not let you down,” he said.
The Premier told voters they had a clear choice. “A vote for Labor is a vote to cut your bills. A vote for the Liberals is a vote to cut your jobs,” he said.
“We have a very positive plan, an optimistic plan, and the choice could not be clearer.”
As of Friday, almost half of Victorians had either voted early or lodged a postal vote.
The Newspoll of 1226 voters, conducted exclusively for The Weekend Australian between Monday and Thursday, shows a fall in Mr Andrews’ approval rating over the campaign, from 51 per cent satisfied and 44 per cent dissatisfied with his performance as Premier three weeks ago, to 46 per cent satisfied and 48 per cent dissatisfied.
But his net rating of -2 compares with Scott Morrison’s -13 ahead of the 2022 federal election, and is better than the numbers for Mr Morrison or Anthony Albanese during the entire May campaign.
Mr Andrews’ approval slump is dwarfed by that of Mr Guy, who has gone from a net approval rating of -20 three weeks ago to -25. Mr Andrews has slipped one point to 51 per cent on the “better premier” measure, while 35 per cent prefer Mr Guy, up two points.
While the Greens’ primary vote has fallen one point to 12 per cent since the beginning of the campaign, this represents an improvement on their 10.7 per cent at the 2018 election.
The big winners from waning major party popularity are independents, whose primary is 15 per cent, up from 13 per cent in early November and 11.2 per cent in 2018.
Seats Labor could lose to the Coalition include Bass, Hastings, Nepean, Ashwood, Pakenham, Box Hill, South Barwon and Yan Yean, although the poll indicates as few as 3-4 of these could fall.
Independents are running strong campaigns in previously safe Labor seats including the Premier’s seat of Mulgrave, Melton, Point Cook and Werribee, while the Greens are eyeing Richmond – viewed as an almost certain Labor loss – Northcote and Albert Park.
The Labor-held seat of Hawthorn is almost certain to fall, either to a teal independent or the Liberals, and Labor strategists believe the party has a chance of retaining Bayswater, despite a redistribution that has made it 0.7 per cent Liberal, and of gaining Liberal marginal seat Caulfield, or the Latrobe Valley seat of Morwell. On the other side of the ledger, the Coalition’s gains against Labor could be offset by possible loss of Kew, Mornington, Benambra or South West Coast to independents and Ripon to Labor, despite a chance of winning back independent-held Morwell, Mildura or Shepparton.
The poll’s “empty chair” question, designed to test the popularity of the government without reference to the opposition, shows a slight decline in the number of people who believe it deserves another term — from 47 per cent three weeks ago to 45 per cent now.
The older voters were, the less likely they were to believe the Andrews government deserves to be re-elected, with 62 per cent of those aged 65+ saying it’s time to give someone else ago, and 34 per cent favouring re-election.
This compared with 57 per cent of 18 to 34 year-olds who said Labor deserved another chance, and 36 per cent who said it was someone else’s turn.
The government was slightly less popular with women, 44 per cent of whom said it deserved to be re-elected, compared with 47 per cent of men.
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