Victorian election: Daniel Andrews is the man as Matthew Guy’s on the outer

Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews. Picture: NCA NewsWire / David Crosling

Dan Andrews will take these numbers but Matthew Guy won’t like them at all. Newspoll points to a third Labor victory for Andrews, this one fought in the toughest political conditions in the state for generations.

They suggest a workable Labor majority and – at the absolute worst – a short trip into minority with the ability to stitch together a government.

If Andrews can secure a decent workable majority, it will be remembered as one of the greatest victories by a Victorian Labor leader.

There are caveats, however.

Saturday’s results are expected to be patchy, many going down to preferences and the Liberals are still holding out that the roughly 7 per cent of undecideds can break their way.

A definitive result may not be known on Saturday night due to the large number of early voters.

Newspoll suggests that Andrews weathered the relentless, highly personal Coalition campaign, although the primary vote, if replicated, is down nearly five points since 2018.

If the Victorian Premier were offered these Newspoll results at the start of the campaign, he absolutely would have taken them.

Conversely, Guy very much wouldn’t. They suggest that the more Victorians have seen of him, the less they have liked him.

A minus 25 satisfaction rating is woeful and if the election results are as bad as they look, then 48-year-old Guy’s political career is cooked.

While the numbers are cruel, Guy outwardly seemed to have a good campaign but he may well pay the price for having been preaching to the converted.

There is a real sense the News­poll is reflecting the intentions of silent Andrews supporters, people quietly locked in their family homes who are happy with the Labor formula and have forgiven the worst pandemic excesses.

They are also prepared to overlook the fiscal kamikaze mission the government has been on.

Big-spending Andrews has crafted a political strategy that ­appeals to a majority of voters, and it was in evidence on the night of the campaign leaders’ debate.

Whenever he was cornered or under pressure, Andrews simply reverted to Labor’s record of fuelling the Victorian economy by building lots of things, hiring more public servants, reforming social affairs and generally backing in the underdog.

To put Andrews’ popularity into perspective, 46 per cent approve of the job he’s doing as Premier while 48 per cent were dissatisfied, giving him a net ­rating of minus two.

Former prime minister Scott Morrison’s numbers at the 2022 election were 41/54, or minus 13. In fact, Daniel Andrews’ current numbers are better than either Morrison or incumbent Prime Minister Anthony Albanese got during the federal campaign.

Now for some further caveats and observations. The statewide Newspolls cannot drill into the granular, seat-by-eat detail, where the major parties are expecting some weird results on Saturday night.

Labor believes it has 40 seats it can count on, with another 12 doubtful. It needs 45 seats for a majority. On a bad night, Labor could still end up in minority. It is possible the Greens will have a night out, winning the inner eastern seat of Richmond, but they will struggle to win neighbouring Northcote.

They can win the yuppified seat of Albert Park and maybe one other. The teals are unknowns but are a strong chance to pick up Hawthorn, with alternative Liberal leader John Pesutto said to be up against it, having lost it in 2018.

If Pesutto loses the Hawthorn fight, the Liberal Party will mourn him as the one who got away for the second time.

The Liberal Party will need to win 10 seats to put itself within distance of winning in 2026 but there is nothing in these numbers to suggest a wave of affection for His Majesty’s opposition.

Amid all the purported hate for Andrews, there seems to be a cruel lack of love for the Liberals.

This may well become the big take-out of the 2022 campaign.