As Victorians cast their votes in the state election, the most predictable outcome is that the crossbench numbers in Victoria’s Lower House will have swollen, fit to burst.
In the 59th parliament there were just four seats taken up in the middle of the chamber, three of them Greens.
The 60th Victorian parliament could feature a crossbench almost as large as the major parties, somewhere between 10 and 25 seats, with possible gains of four to the Greens and the remaining pick-ups coming from Independents and Teal-hued others.
Polling indicates the two major parties will attract primary votes from less than 70 per cent of Victorian voters.
If the polling is even vaguely in the ballpark, it will be further evidence of the fracturing of the two-party system.
Dan has become a prefix of some utility for the media in Victoria. It reflects the nature of the Premier’s standing in the state. Love him or hate him, Andrews looms larger over state politics than any one of his predecessors in recent times. He is for Labor what Sir Henry Bolte was for the Liberals 50 years ago.
In another time and circumstance, Andrews might have been content as a factional toecutter, herding the cats of the Victorian Socialist Left. In the here and now, he is the longest serving political leader in the country, having come to power eight years ago and rising to the leadership of the Victorian Labor party in 2010.
Four years ago, headlines raged about a “Danslide”. This time it is more likely to feature a narrow victory, a Dan-scrape, perhaps, or a loss that may be called a Dan-splosion. Minority government or a Dan-carious result remains a live possibility.
The election itself is a referen-Dan on the Premier.
The phrase “Andrews is a polarising figure” has lurched into cliche. One is either for him or agin him. His approval ratings in recent polling show a split almost neatly down the centre.
There are active corruption investigations into the Premier and his government. The hangover from pandemic management and with it a prevailing sense of government overreach, continues to dog Andrews.
Incumbency has proven to be a hindrance both here and overseas for governments at the tail end of the Covid-19 pandemic. It might yet catch up with Andrews and Labor.
With a flock of cabinet ministers retiring, this election may well lead to a crushing defeat but Andrews has one thing going for him, the amateur-hour performance of the Victorian Liberal party and its leader, Matthew Guy. Belted in 2018, Guy’s political career looked over, only for him to return for a shot at another drubbing.
Guy’s campaign has been more measured and focused this time around. The Liberals have had some policy wins with the public, notably in transport infrastructure but the word from within the party is that Guy is the wrong man for the job.
The crushing loss in the 2018 election, where the Coalition lost 11 seats and Labor won eight, casts a long shadow over the result of tomorrow’s election.
The Coalition must gain 18 seats to form a majority government and that appears highly unlikely. On my count, they could make as many as four, and perhaps as few as two, net gains.
As Labor fights its war on two fronts – Greens in town and the Liberals in the suburbs – the Victorian Liberals now fight one, against inner-city Teals and climate indies. Losses are on the cards in blue-ribbon seats south of the Yarra.
What polling has been available reveals a narrowing of the vote, hardly an unanticipated event in any election with the Andrews government showing a 53-47 win, two-party preferred.
If it narrows further, the prospect of minority government looms.
Federal implications are genuinely off the table. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese spent just one day on the hustings with Andrews while federal Opposition Leader Peter Dutton remained steadfastly north of the Murray.
Perhaps the best thing about this state election campaign is that it is soon to be over.
It has been ugly, unedifying and unrelenting, full of vicious personal attacks mixed with misinformation hurled from all sides, with the worst of it coming from the minor parties.
Keith Wolahan is the fresh-faced Liberal member for the federal seat of Menzies in Melbourne’s east.
Wolahan is a barrister and a retired soldier who served in Timor-Leste and undertook three tours of Afghanistan as a commando. He is a rising star in the Liberal party. His first speech to the parliament was truly impressive and I recommend it to you.
Earlier this week, Wolahan got to his feet in the House of Representatives and commented on the state of democracy in his home state.
“Last Saturday in Melbourne, two rallies took place. One saw a candidate stand on the steps of Flinders Street Station and make a clear reference to political violence. It was made worse by associating the offensive term with army veterans. This rhetoric is totally unacceptable, has no place in our democracy, and is not who we are.
“The second was a gathering of thousands of Iranian Australians in Carlton who keep turning up for women, life, and freedom. There were no threats of violence. Instead, we saw peaceful and passionate condemnation of real violence in their home country where young women not only stand up to bullies, but they stand up to bullets.
“We can learn from them and do better. This includes toning down hyperbole. This includes resisting the urge to portray our political opponents as cartoon villains or worse.
“This includes putting our case with passion and respect and knowing that in a free and fair election, Victorians will make the right decision.
“Mr Speaker, the way we practise democracy matters and we can all do better.”
Well said, sir.
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