Time looks to have run out for Dominic Perrottet and his NSW government.
Inside the Coalition it was hoped voters would recognise Perrottet as a premier with the right stuff to lead the state, and that his team deserved another go.
The final Newspoll before this weekend’s NSW election suggests the mood for change is too strong.
Whatever vision and managerial acumen Perrottet might profess to offer, it is an inescapable fact that he leads a government that’s really 12 years old and has churned through four premiers.
It is a tired government, dragged down by scandals and internal disunity. It has struggled to combat community dissatisfaction over the cost of living, hospital services and education standards. Ministers are bailing out, as though the game is up.
In that tough political environment, it was always hard for Perrottet to argue a vote for his government was a refresh.
Meanwhile, the Labor opposition led by Chris Minns has run a disciplined campaign with a deliberately vague agenda to keep the focus on the Coalition. Minns, while vanilla, has made few mistakes.
The latest Newspoll indicates that, whatever misgivings voters might have about an opposition not spelling out what it would do if elected, the Minns small-target strategy has worked.
The shock of this poll for Perrottet is that the Coalition’s primary vote has not only slipped but he’s lost his standing as preferred premier as well.
NSW Labor needs nine seats to form an outright majority of 47 and could achieve this outcome. But Minns Labor has a calculated fallback position to assure victory unless there is a late surge to the Coalition.
In a battle of attrition largely fought out in western Sydney seats, Labor is confident it can nab at least six additional seats to give the party more in the next parliament than the Coalition. If it falls short of the target nine, Labor is banking on forming a majority with the support of three Greens and some independents who would never go the Coalition’s way.
The last weeks of the election campaign have been symptomatic of Perrottet’s overall difficulties, with anything that could go wrong, going wrong.
A complete shutdown of Sydney’s rail network in peak hour, while caused by a technical glitch, was an untimely reminder for commuters of chronic transport problems. So was the breakdown of Perrottet’s electric campaign bus – even if Minn’s bus suffered a similar mishap.
The revelation that Perrottet called Health Minister Brad Hazzard for help when his wife was in serious pain, while not unreasonable if the pair were friends, was nonetheless poor optics. Most voters don’t have access to power, and could face long waits for hospital attention.
After throwing out big-spending promises like confetti early on, but getting little cut-through, Perrottet shifted to small-picture politics as the campaign wound up.
He promised to help travel times in Sydney’s west by lifting the speed limit on the WestConnex motorway to 90km/h – a no-cost promise, but late and hardly visionary.
Minns responded by promising to release information on private toll company contracts. The hint was that Labor could ease the financial burden for motorists, even if such contracts are locked in.
Perrottet’s promise of a “future fund” to help parents pay for their children’s education, with the government matching voters’ contributions with $400 a year, was superficially appealing but offered nothing for people in Sydney’s west struggling to make ends meet. Minns, perhaps sensibly, played a dead ball on this one.
The clearest policy divide in this unremarkable election campaign has been Perrottet’s firm commitment to cashless poker machines across the state. Minns has committed only to a small trial, leaving himself open to claims he is beholden to Clubs NSW.
Perrottet’s courage on tackling problem gambling, compared with Minns’s timidity, could be a metaphor for which one is best equipped to lead. But not enough to save Perrottet’s government.
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