Newspoll: Chris Minns in premier position to secure NSW Labor return to power

NSW Labor leader Chris Minns is poised to lead the ALP back into government after 12 years in the wilderness, with Newspoll showing the party is on the cusp of claiming a majority.

NSW Labor leader Chris Minns at Sydney Markets in Homebush on Friday. Picture: John Grainger

NSW Labor leader Chris Minns is poised to lead the ALP into government after 12 years in the wilderness, according to Newspoll data that shows the party is on the cusp of claiming a majority.

Newspoll’s two-party-preferred result of 54.5-45.5 represents a 6.5 per cent swing against the Coalition since 2019, with Mr Minns set to claim up to 10 seats, enough to reach the 47 seats necessary to govern without the support of the crossbench.

The polling comes as both leaders headed across Sydney on the penultimate day of the campaign, with Premier Dominic Perrottet launching a last-ditch effort to sandbag seven threatened Liberal seats: Willoughby, North Shore, Penrith, Holsworthy, East Hills, Oatley and Ryde.

If Mr Minns is elected, it will be the first time since Kevin Rudd’s election 16 years ago that Labor governments will control the Australian mainland, leaving Tasmania as the only Liberal power base until the Northern Territory election in August 2024. The Newspoll of 1205 voters, conducted exclusively for The Weekend Aust-ralian between Saturday and Thursday, showed a two-point lift in popular support for Labor since late February, leaving the party with an election-winning 38-35 primary vote lead.

Flanked by former trade minister Stuart Ayres, wife Helen and daughter Celeste at the Penrith Valley Regional Sports Centre, Mr Perrottet said Saturday’s election represented a “clear choice”, calling on voters to back the Liberals’ long-term economic plan.

“This is a very clear choice at this election,” he said. “It is my team with a plan that has grown the economy and will ensure hundreds of thousands of jobs continue to flourish. The problem with governments is that so many are shortsighted.”

Targeting seats across middle Sydney – Labor-held Strathfield, Ryde and Parramatta, vacated by retiring Liberal ministers – necessary to reach majority, Mr Minns said the government had had “12 long years” to fix the issues confronting the state, but downplayed expectations of a comprehensive victory. “I do believe it’s going to be tight,” he said. “This election will come down to the wire.

“Most NSW elections, except for a few here and there, are tight contests, and I think that we’ve always known that.”

The two point fall in popular support for the Coalition in Newspoll was accompanied by a slump in support for the Premier, with Mr Minns taking a slim two-point lead as preferred premier – the first time he has polled better than Mr Perrottet.

Mr Minns’s satisfaction rating jumped six points to plus-14 with previously uncommitted voters coming in behind the Opposition Leader.

In an indication of strengthening support for independents and One Nation, more than a quarter of voters said they would vote for a minor party or independent – heightening the prospect of an expanded crossbench in both houses.

Popular support for the Greens was 11 per cent, up 1.4 per cent since the last election. More than half of those polled believed it was “time to give someone else a go”, an increase of four points since February, with less than one in three saying the government deserved another chance.

The Coalition was less popular with women, with only 30 per cent saying that the party deserved to be re-elected, compared to 35 per cent of men.

Labor sources said that they were confident of taking the seats of Heathcote and Leppington – notionally already in the party’s column – in addition to the marginal seat of East Hills, held by Liberal MP Wendy Lindsay on a 0.1 per cent margin.

Confidence was also growing among party sources that Camden – the seat of Liberal MP Peter Sidgreaves on the city’s western fringe – was within reach, pointing to the confluence of a high One Nation vote and an influx of 20,000 new residents angry at the lack of essential services.

NSW Electoral Commission data showed more than 1.2 million voters – representing more than one in five of those eligible – had already cast their ballots by Friday.

With his career as Premier on the line, Mr Perrottet campaigned late into Friday, heading out to the hustings in the seat of Holsworthy, visiting a local business before handing out how-to-vote cards alongside candidate Tina Ayyad at a pre-poll.

Mr Perrottet played down the absence of Peter Dutton on the campaign trail, saying he did not need a “wingman”.