Teals target Labor and Liberal seats in Victoria

Two of the people behind Monique Ryan’s win in Kooyong are overseeing the teals’ bid to win seats in the Victorian election.

Kooyong independent MP Monique Ryan. Picture: Arsineh Houspian

Two of the masterminds behind independent MP Monique Ryan’s Kooyong campaign are quietly overseeing the teals’ push to seize crucial seats at the Victorian ­election amid a softening of ­support for Labor Premier Daniel Andrews.

Dr Ryan’s former marketing and data strategist Brent Hodgson has based his campaign for the crucial inner-city Labor seat of Hawthorn on the ground floor of an office block opposite a hotel in the middle of the electorate.

The office carries no signage, and a secretary said on Friday that no one appeared to be attending the address, which is being used as an official site to attract a ­candidate.

The teals are using the term Kew Independents, and the drive to win the neighbouring seat of Kew from the Liberals is being run by Dr Ryan’s former social media manager, Hayden O’Connor. A spokeswoman said Dr Ryan had no role in either campaign, stating: “Nothing at all.”

Labor holds Hawthorn with a margin of just 0.4 per cent but it had long been a Liberal seat until it fell in 2018.

Once held by former Liberal premier Ted Baillieu, his son Robert Baillieu has remained a key behind-the-scenes figure in the attempt to strip power from the Liberals (and now Labor) and hand it to the teals.

Mr O’Connor wrote on LinkedIn that the time was right for a new way of politics in Kew.

“Kew Independents is a community group that is looking for a candidate to support at the upcoming state election in Victoria,” it said.

“The local community has already successfully supported a ‘teal’ independent into federal parliament in Kooyong (Dr Monique Ryan) – so there’s already proven interest, support, and results.

“Now the community-backed independent model is being applied at the state level.”

Climate 200, responding to interest from its donor community, undertook polling to understand the potential of a number of state seats.

The polling informed some of its discussions but the detail has not been shared with any campaign.

Sources said no Climate 200 money had been invested into any of the “embryonic community campaigns”.

The teals are also considering running some candidates in Melbourne’s bayside or sand belt region, but the independent member for Goldstein, Zoe Daniel, has distanced herself from the state poll.

The teal shift into state politics comes as support for Labor is coming under heavy pressure as the parties prepare for the November 26 poll.

The Liberal Party is quietly confident of picking up a considerable number of seats at the election, although its primary vote is still believed to be under attack.

Latest private polling in target seats, however, has the party well placed to undermine Labor’s hold on the 88-seat Legislative ­Assembly.

Labor currently has 55 seats (57 after the redistribution) and there is a growing expectation that the Andrews government could be forced into minority, with a potentially sizeable crossbench.

“The thinking is that the ALP is going to get absolutely whacked in some outer suburban areas. Absolutely caned,’’ a party figure said.

“The question is by how much and where those votes go.”

A senior Liberal source said support for Premier Daniel Andrews had collapsed in regional Victoria, with him heading into heavily negative territory on his satisfaction rating. The third wave of the pandemic is further harming Labor in Melbourne’s outer suburbs. “Things have turned against him but we are not sure where it ends up,” the source said.

Both major parties believe minority Labor government is a distinct possibility, with the Greens likely to win some key seats, the teals possibly two or more seats and some conservative independents adding to the existing pile.

In the current parliament Labor has 55 of the 88 seats, the Coalition 27, Greens 3 and independents 3.