Teal targets Nationals seat as Climate 200 candidates head for regions

Caz Heise narrowly missed winning the seat of Cowper in May, her unexpected success defying the narrative teals are just an inner-city phenomenon.

Carolyn Heise narrowly missed an election victory in the northern NSW electorate of Cowper.

The country’s most marginal Nat­ionals seat will be a key target for teal independents seeking to expand outside capital cities, with Climate 200-backed candidate Carolyn Heise planning a run in Cowper three years out from the next election.

Ms Heise narrowly missed an election victory in the northern NSW electorate in May, her unexpected success running counter to the narrative that teals were just an inner-city phenomenon appealing to the rich.

The average income in Cowper is roughly $62,000.

Nationals MP Pat Conaghan holds the seat now on a margin of 2.3 per cent, about half what it was in 2019.

The electorate – which takes in the fast-growing towns of Port Macquarie and Coffs Harbour – has undergone changes in recent years, with more young professionals and families migrating to the coast. It has started attracting a more progressive voter.

Primary industry, once the bedrock of the local economy, has been superseded by healthcare, retail and construction as key job generators.

Port Macquarie volunteers celebrate the strong performance of independent Carolyn Heise.

Political insiders say the state seat of Coffs Harbour is seen as vulnerable to a challenge from Labor, an independent or a teal at the NSW election next year.

Ms Heise, who received financial backing from Simon Holmes a Court’s Climate 200 group, said her campaign was “community-led, from the kitchen table”, pointing to almost 1000 volunteers and hundreds of donors.

Her platform of “integrity, climate, women and health” resonated, she said, with the issue of climate particularly salient after a spate of natural disasters.

“People felt abandoned,” Ms Heise said. “They just didn’t feel represented by the Nationals.”

Mr Conaghan said the Cowper result reflected the Coalition “walking away from conservative voters on woke issues” rather than the rise of the teals. “The No 1 thing was mandates, excluding people from jobs because they chose not to get vaccinated, which we said was free and voluntary,” he said.

He pointed out Ms Heise’s primary vote was only slightly higher than 2019 Cowper independent candidate Rob Oakeshott’s.

Cowper MP Patrick Conaghan now holds the most marginal National Party seat.

Unlike in 2019 when Scott Morrison featured heavily in Mr Conaghan’s campaign, including a presidential-style visit to Port Macquarie, the prime minister was conspicuously absent.

Then party leader Barnaby Joyce campaigned only briefly. Neither appeared in advertising.

Mr Conaghan declined to comment on Mr Morrison or Mr Joyce but said he was “very happy with David and Perin” and did not believe the party should drift to the left.

Former Labor Cowper candidate Andrew Woodward said the rise of the teals on the coast “largely reflected the money” behind the campaign. “Heise was so ridiculously visible, you saw her on buses, in the shopping mall, and people thought, ‘I don’t know how much about politics but she must be popular’,” he said.

Mr Woodward said Labor should be competitive in seats like Cowper because of demographic changes but struggled because of a perception it couldn’t win.

“A lot of politics is about who you believe has a real chance of winning,” he said. “They have seen independents like Oakeshott getting close. And some Nationals could bring themselves to vote for a teal but they could not vote for Labor.”

He said while the teals walked around like “Mother Teresa” and needed scrutiny, some tactics employed by the Nationals were “despicable”, including reference to Ms Heise’s female partner of 20 years. “It was dirty and also bad politics,” he said, given Cowper voted yes to same-sex marriage.

The text message sent to Cowper voters two days before the election.

“They were planting it in ­people’s minds who they thought might be susceptible.”

At one point Mr Woodward was so incensed he rang up a Nationals figure to tell them to stop.

“Nothing we can do,” he was told. “We can’t control our ­supporters.”

Mr Woodward said he also believed Ms Heise’s appearance on an Australian Story episode for Cathy McGowan a week before the election, where it was revealed she had been a member of the Greens, had been costly: “A lot of older, country voters watch Australian Story and the revelation came as a surprise,” he said.

Two days later, a text message was sent to voters asking for “market research on former Green Caz Heise”.

NSW state director Joe Lundy categorically denied that Nationals HQ had directed politicians or supporters to target Ms Heise’s family but acknowledged that the text message did come from the party.

Insiders from National Party circles confirmed there had been “head scratching” about the Cowper result.

Some pointed to the massive advertising campaign for Ms Heise, suggesting the Nationals were simply outgunned.

Others suggested Mr Conaghan was a problem and was a first-term MP who simply did not work hard enough or have enough “cut through”.

This afternoon I have conceded Pat Conaghan will retain the seat of Cowper. My statement is below.
Thank you Cowper, what an extraordinary effort 💕 pic.twitter.com/jBHZQC6ak0

— Caz4Cowper (@CazHeise) May 24, 2022

A senior Nationals source said it was clear the party had a problem with women leaving for teals which needed addressing.

Ms Heise said she planned to run again in three years’ time and believed this time she could win, given Mr Conaghan was now “a backbencher, in opposition”.