This appears to be the conviction that Scott Morrison has arrived at on a 2050 net zero emissions commitment. It is a reflection of a political reality that he believes his conservative colleagues can’t ignore. The argument that it is confined to an inner-city indulgence can no longer be sustained. The debate has moved on. It is now mainstream.
This is Morrison’s argument against those in the Coalition, including the Nationals, who fear that one of the government’s great political advantages is being gambled away.
Yet the struggle remains fixed against two conflicting standards. People want governments to resolve this issue and want climate change addressed, but many remain hesitant if that change comes at a personal cost. It is a question of “how”, not “if”.
Morrison’s policy position has remained consistent on this. There has been no Damascene conversion. It has been more than a year since the release of the technology road map that had Glasgow very firmly in mind.
It remains the guiding document and is a clear articulation of a position that technology rather than taxes will be the principal driver of lower emissions, while protecting the agriculture and resources sector and preventing a forced de-industrialisation of the economy.
Policy decisions since then, such as the recent expansion of the Emissions Reduction Fund to include carbon capture and storage, have aligned to be consistent with this strategy.
The political challenge for Morrison, as he tries to resolve a legacy issue at a time of intense political grievance, will be to ensure that adopting a 2050 target is not mistaken for a fundamental shift or change in direction in policy by the Coalition. This would be a breach of the covenant he took to the election.
Morrison’s problem is that to those who helped him win the last election, it will look this way.
Language will be critical to appeasing not only his competing internal constituencies but how they are reflected electorally.
He will need to maintain a credible argument that his government is still a conservative proposition by presenting a convincing case that reducing emissions doesn’t impose costs.
Morrison has made a virtue of leading a government that valued outcomes over symbolism, yet on the issue, he appears conflicted.
Josh Frydenberg has made clear the economic cost of not adopting a 2050 net zero commitment is real. Capital markets, access to finance, trade and international relations have become the baseline cost.
Assuming Morrison reaches a deal with the Nationals, it then becomes an issue of optics.
There are some who strongly believe he should not attend the Glasgow summit for fear of alienating sections of the Liberal and Nationals base. The image of the Prime Minister hobnobbing with European bureaucrats while Australians at home try to put food on the table sends a bad message.
Morrison has a compelling argument, in response. Fronting up to Glasgow would be a demonstration he is serious about what is a serious issue. Australia must have a seat at the table or risk being alienated. It also has a good story to tell globally as a future exporter of low emissions technology to our region.
The failure of the Coalition to resolve this issue internally over the past decade has been as much about internal management as about policy. While Morrison has been patient with the Nationals, and respectful of the process, agreement from the junior Coalition party is no fait accompli.
Failure to reach an accord by next week may force Morrison to impose his will and make a net zero declaration as a majority decision of cabinet.
This may intensify the internal dispute. It would also force the Nationals to consider whether its ambition is to remain a party of government seeking to carve out protections for its constituencies or risk having measures imposed on them by a Labor government.
More Coverage
Marles settles with ex-chief of staff over bullying allegations
Jo Tarnawsky says she has reached a confidential settlement with her ex-boss Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles – just days before a budget that will kick-off the election.
‘Business as usual’: Nats blame toothless supermarket report on ‘weak’ PM
David Littleproud says supermarket giants are 'controlling' Anthony Albanese in the wake of an ACCC report devoid of 'deterrent or consequence'. He said a Coalition government would come down harder on soaring prices.
As Tony Blair was once taken to describe the Northern Ireland peace process, the train is leaving the station and it is leaving whether everyone is on board or not.