Anthony Albanese declines to say if Australia will help the US to defend Taiwan

The PM is on a collision course with Donald Trump’s AUKUS review chief, refusing to bow to demands Australia pre-commit US-supplied submarines to a potential American war with China.

US Pentagon policy chief Elbridge Colby and Prime Minister Anthony Albanese.

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Anthony Albanese is on a collision course with the head of Donald Trump’s AUKUS review, refusing to bow to Pentagon policy chief ­Elbridge Colby’s demands for Australia to pre-commit US-supplied submarines to a potential American war with China.

Speaking in Shanghai ahead of a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping on Tuesday, the Prime Minister declined to say if Australia would help the US to defend Taiwan, as his cabinet colleague Pat Conroy insisted Australia alone would decide if and when it went to war.

Mr Albanese is walking a diplomatic tightrope during a record five-day trip to China, anxious to avoid offending Australia’s biggest trading partner or the nation’s closed ally, the United States.

He is determined to use the visit to talk up Australia-China economic ties, arguing Australian ­exporters and tourism businesses stand to make windfall gains under the countries’ newly stabilised relationship.

But the Trump administration is piling pressure on the government to take a stand on the growing threat posed by China’s massive military build-up and its rivalry with the US, with the ­Financial Times reporting Mr Colby has demanded Australia and Japan make clear what role they would play in US-China conflict over Taiwan.

The Pentagon deputy appeared to endorse the report just as Mr ­Albanese was starting his first day of meetings in Shanghai, posting on social media that Mr Trump was “urging allies to step up their defence spending and other efforts related to our collective defence”.

“Of course, some among our ­allies might not welcome frank conversations,” Mr Colby wrote. “But many, now led by NATO … are seeing the urgent need to step up and are doing so. President Trump has shown the approach and the formula – and we will not be deterred from advancing his agenda.”

As the Department has made abundantly and consistently clear, we at DOD are focused on implementing the President’s America First, common sense agenda of restoring deterrence and achieving peace through strength. That includes by urging allies to step up their defense spending… https://t.co/vU3jnNhqSA

— Under Secretary of Defense Elbridge Colby (@USDPColby) July 12, 2025

Mr Albanese, who has refused to lift Australia’s defence budget from 2 per cent of GDP to the 3.5 per cent demanded by the Trump administration, said Australia was committed to its alliance with the US and increasing military spending “considerably”.

But, asked what role the nation would play in a US-China war, the Prime Minister sidestepped. “Our aim of investing in our capability and … investing in our relationships is about advancing peace and security in our region. That’s our objective,” he said.

Mr Albanese signalled his frustration with Mr Colby when asked whether the US’s demands were reasonable given its own policy of “strategic ambiguity” on whether it would aid Taiwan in a crisis.

“Well, you’ve just answered the question yourself,” the Prime Minister said in reply.

He added: “We support the status quo when it comes to Taiwan. We don’t support any unilateral action there. We have a clear position, and we have been consistent about that. What’s important when it comes to international relationships is that you have a stable, orderly, coherent position going forward. We want peace and security in our region.”

Defence Industry Minister Pat Conroy was more blunt, saying Australia would not provide any advance guarantees of its support for the US in a future conflict.

“The sole power to commit Australia to war, or to allow our territory to be used for conflict, is the elected government of the day,” Mr Conroy told the ABC.

“That is our position. Sovereignty will always be prioritised.”

The pushback came as the ­government braced for the arrival of Chinese spy ships off the north Queensland coast as Australia’s biggest military exercise, Talisman Sabre, got under way on Sunday.

An Australian Army soldier during preparation for Exercise Talisman Sabre 2025. Picture: Australian Defence Force

The biennial war games will bring together 30,000 military personnel and equipment from 19 nations for land, air, sea, space and cyber exercises to prepare for a ­potential Indo-Pacific conflict with China. Mr Conroy said it would be extraordinary if Beijing passed up the intelligence-gathering opportunity, with its spy ships monitoring the last three iterations of the exercise.

“It would be unusual for them not to observe it,” he told the ABC.

“We will obviously observe their activities and monitor their presence around Australia, but we’ll also adjust how we conduct those exercises.”

The presence of Chinese warships off Australia’s coast will revive memories of the heavily armed flotilla of Chinese warships that conducted a surprise live-fire drill in the Tasman Sea in February, before circumnavigating the country in an unprecedented show of force.

The PLA-Navy’s Jiangkai-class frigate, Hengyang, was one of three Chinese warships that conducted a surprise live-fire drill in the Tasman Sea before circumnavigating Australia. Picture: Australian Defence Force

When Mr Albanese sits down with Mr Xi this week it will be their fourth meeting, underscoring his failure so far to secure face-to-face talks with Mr Trump.

In a prelude to the meeting on Tuesday, Mr Albanese told the Chinese Communist Party’s Shanghai Secretary, Chen Jining, that Australia would deal with China in a “calm and consistent manner”.

He said the Australia-China relationship was vital for prosperity in both countries and he looked forward to “frank and constructive dialogue” during his trip.

“My government very much values our relationship with China,” the Prime Minister said. “We deal with each other in a calm and consistent manner, and we want to continue to pursue our national interests. And it is in our interests to have good relations with China.”

Mr Chen said Mr Albanese’s visit and talks with Xi Jinping “will definitely further drive forward and enrich the bilateral relationships between the two countries”.

“Under the strategic guidance of the two heads of states, the relationship between China and Australia has witnessed continuous improvement and strong momentum of development, a trend that is welcomed by both countries as well as the international community,” he said.

The head of the Chinese Communist Party in Shanghai – China’s financial capital – is a powerful position, with former ­occupant of the post Jiang Zemin rising to become the country’s paramount leader from 1989 to 2002.

However, Mr Albanese has previously asserted that he only meets with leader-level counterparts. Defending his decision to pass up an opportunity to meet with US Vice-President JD Vance in May at the Pope’s inauguration in Rome, Mr Albanese said at the time: “I’m the Prime Minister. I meet the President of the United States and that will occur at an ­appropriate time.”

The Australian revealed on Saturday that the Trump administration’s review of the $368bn AUKUS partnership was not initiated to kill off the agreement, but was aimed at identifying and getting ahead of future challenges.

Pentagon sources revealed that Mr Colby did not initiate the reassessment of AUKUS, but was requested to lead the comprehensive review with the full weight and backing of the Department of Defence.

The US has pledged to supply at least three of its Virginia-class submarines to Australia from the early 2030s, and to support Australia and the UK to build new AUKUS-class nuclear subs, with the first Australian-constructed boat due for delivery in the early 2040s. But the US submarine industry is far behind where it needs to be to supply the boats without eating into its own capabilities.

Mr Colby has argued it would be “crazy” to hand the promised submarines to Australia if the deal would take them out of a US fight with China over Taiwan.

United States Marines with 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit fire the M777A2 Howitzer during a live fire activity at Shoalwater Bay Training Area. Picture: Australian Defence Force.

United States Studies Centre defence program head Peter Dean said the government was “absolutely right” to reject US demands for an advance commitment on its participation in any future conflict.

“The US won’t pre-commit over Taiwan and despite what the Under Secretary of Defence may say, he does not speak for President Trump and we have no clear indications where the US President stands,” Professor Dean said.

“Colby needs to get his own house in order before he starts making demands of alliance partners. Alliances are also not transactional in this manner and no country should be giving away its sovereignty. Any Taiwan scenario is purely hypothetical.”

However, Defence Minister Richard Marles has already indicated Australia would be drawn into a US-China war over Taiwan – which Mr Xi has ordered his forces to be ready to fight by 2027 – due to the importance of the Australia’s geography to America’s war plans. “Our continent is more relevant to great power contest now than it’s ever been before,” he told The Australian’s Defending Australia summit last month.