PM must stand up to Barnaby Joyce on carbon emissions target to avoid embarrassment

Barnaby Joyce and Prime Minister Scott Morrison during Question Time in the House of Representatives in Parliament House Canberra. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Gary Ramage

The states and big business are preparing to ignore the Commonwealth if Scott Morrison allows National Party leader Barnaby Joyce to make the office of Prime Minister of Australia not only a local laughing stock but, more dangerous, a global joke.

The Commonwealth must duplicate each of the elected state and territory governments and commit to a firm zero emissions target in 2050 and match Victoria, NSW and South Australia in its 2030 targets. There must be no ambiguity in the presentation to the Glasgow summit.

A Coalition that did not follow the states would create a national tragedy and endanger our defence, given the new nuclear alliance with the US and UK.

Scott Morrison has skilfully played the global stage and greatly enhanced Australia’s world position in regional foreign affairs and defence matters in a way that no other recent Prime Minister has been able to do.

Business is suddenly waking up to the dangers of the national government not following the states. Accordingly if bad decisions are made in Canberra this week then large corporates will become the Government’s greatest enemy in the lead up for the next election. A “Barnaby victory” is likely to mean trade sanctions against Australian industry, ironically led by the rural sector.

Yes, there can be regional help in any policy but the so called carbon farming will deliver new prosperity to many regions kick started by Australia’s massive deep water and low cost on shore “carbon neutral” gas reserves in Gippsland, Victoria which replace Yallourn coal.

As I pointed out earlier this week, every state and territory government in Australia has detailed plans to reduce emissions to zero by 2050. The states, not the Commonwealth, control levers to execute that policy. They would like the Commonwealth to help financially, but the Commonwealth does not have the power to impose a different policy on the states.

The NSW situation is the best illustration of how the office of Prime Minister will be turned into a national and global joke if the coalition does not follow the states in emissions.

The NSW government, which incudes Barnaby’s National Party supported emission reduction strategies without the caveats Barnaby is now demanding.

Indeed only last month NSW extended its emission reductions commitment to a 50 per cent reduction by 2030. The National’s Adam Marshall is the Minister for Agriculture.

Moreover, again without the “Barnaby” demands, the Commonwealth has joined with NSW to implement it‘s state strategy. But now, Barnaby wants the Commonwealth to adopt a different strategy to the one it’s helping to implement in NSW and one that contradicts the will of the Australian people as expressed by voting in six state governments (half Liberal) and two territories.

For a moment forget your views on carbon — that’s simply silly contradictory policy.

What the Commonwealth can do is begin to work with the states on each of their proposals for the zero emissions target in 2050 plus their commitments in the next nine years.

It can help them not only cost these proposals but look at how they can be integrated so we get a national framework. There is clearly going to be competition between the states to attract capital for climate reduction.

Josh Frydenberg should be on the alert that all states are going to want a similar deal to NSW but, just as NSW wasn’t bombarded with all sorts of Commonwealth restrictions and demands, the other states will want to be treated the same way.

If a proper firm Canberra communication to Glasgow cant be agreed on then Morrison must make a national commitment on the basis of what the states have undertaken to do.

And the potential action in the states is stunning:

* Victoria requires only about $40m in expenditure to prove up Exxon’s massive low cost deep gas reserve estimates. The gas is dissolved in water and will insulate the nation from the impact of global gas price hikes, remunerate farmers, boost the regional Latrobe Valley and the water will kick start the nation’s carbon farming so making the gas carbon neutral.

Once Daniel Andrews is removed as Premier the development that can almost certainly proceed enabling Yallourn brown coal to shut with huge national emission reductions.

* Queensland is looking to build hydrogen plants and become a leader in carbon reduction

* WA has Andrew Forrest and his massive plans for solar generation of power to produce hydrogen and so called “green steel”.

* To illustrate what the NSW/Commonwealth partnership is set to deliver I use the words of the former NSW Premier (backed by Barnaby’s National Party).

Gladys Berejiklian said the state’s new objective of halving emissions by 2030 – up from 35 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030 — shows that NSW is serious on carbon reduction.

“Our Net Zero Plan is expected to attract more than $37 billion in private sector investment into NSW, support more than 9,000 jobs, save households about $130 on their electricity bills and help NSW become Australia’s first trillion-dollar state by 2030.”

The coalition government has lost touch with the nation on carbon. Australia’s defence and trade requires the Prime Minister to take a tough line with Barnaby Joyce and to re connect with the nation as expressed by all elected states and territories.

And he then needs to go to Glasgow to lock in AUKUS.