Polling puts John Barilaro in box seat to win Eden-Monaro by-election

The NSW Deputy Premier would win the Eden-Monaro by-election ahead of Labor’s Kristy McBain and potential Liberal candidate Jim Molan, according to new Nationals polling.

John Barilaro, NSW Deputy Premier, is considering contesting the federal seat of Eden-Monaro. Picture: Britta Campion

NSW Deputy Premier John Barilaro would win the Eden-Monaro by-election if he chooses to stand, according to new Nationals polling, which places him ahead of Anthony Albanese’s preferred candidate Kristy McBain on a 52-48 per cent two-party preferred vote.

The federal Nationals polling of 1296 voters, conducted by phone on Thursday night, reveals that Mr Barilaro would secure 30 percent of the primary vote against the 35 per cent secured by Ms McBain.

NSW senator Jim Molan, a potential Liberal candidate, and The Greens’ Patrick McGinlay would receive 21 per cent and eight per cent of the vote, respectively, according to the data.

Allowing for the same preference flow from the 2019 federal election, Mr Barilaro would edge out Ms McBain for the regional NSW seat, currently held by Labor on a slim 0.85 percent margin.

Jim Molan. Picture: Kym Smith

The Australian understands earlier polling conducted by the NSW Nationals was considered unreliable due to events sparked by the resignation of Labor MP Mike Kelly on Thursday. Mr Kelly cited his health as a key factor in his decision to stand down from politics.

Mr Barilaro, the member for Monaro, a state seat which falls within the overarching federal seat, told reporters on Friday that he would take the weekend off to consider his options ahead of making an announcement about his final decision sometime next week.

He said: “I’ve got a tough decision to make. I’m proud of what I’ve achieved in NSW. I still think there is more for me to do here. We will look at the research, we will look at the polling, but more importantly I’m going to talk to those [who] this impacts and that’s what I will do this weekend at the farm.”

An Opposition party has not lost a by-election to an incumbent government in more than a century, meaning Mr Barilaro, who would be vacating his position as NSW Deputy Premier to contest the seat, is taking on an enormous risk by throwing his hat into the ring.

But contesting the seat could pose questions for the Berejiklian government, which currently holds a two-seat majority in the NSW Legislative Assembly. Some Liberal MPs have raised concerns that if Mr Barilaro goes federal, a subsequent byelection in his seat of Monaro could result in the seat falling into the hands of the NSW opposition.

The Nationals polling suggests Mr Barilaro has a net favorability of +17 per cent and favorability across all age groups while Ms McBain has a net favorability of +13 per cent. Approximately 47 per cent of voters were listed as having “no view or don’t know”.

On Friday the NSW Liberal Party voted in favour of contesting the seat in a move that officially set up a three-cornered showdown between the Coalition partners and Labor for the electorate. It is understood to have its own separate polling testing its electoral chances ahead of preselecting its Eden-Monaro candidate later this month.

NSW Liberal Party state director Chris Stone confirmed on Friday that its 38-member State Executive had voted in favour to stand a candidate in the seat.

The result was considered a fait accompli, given that the prime minister had earlier this week confirmed that his party would contest the seat, complicating what until then had been united support for Mr Barilaro to run unchallenged.

Another potential Liberal Party candidate, Andrew Constance, the NSW Transport Minister, has signalled his intention to stand, but only if Mr Barilaro decides not to do so himself.

He told Sydney radio broadcaster Alan Jones on Friday that he and Mr Barilaro would not be “contesting each other”.

Other contenders include Senator Jim Molan and Fiona Kotvojs, who came close to unseating Dr Kelly at last year’s election.