Barilaro sets up showdown with Libs to become Nationals federal leader
NSW Deputy Premier John Barilaro has declared his ambition to become Nationals federal leader.
John Barilaro is preparing to put his political career on the line and overcome 100 years of by-election history, declaring his ambition to become Nationals federal leader and setting up a showdown with the Liberal Party in Eden-Monaro.
Ignoring calls from the NSW Deputy Premier to hand the Nationals a clear run in the traditional bellwether seat, the Liberal Party state executive will on Friday morning endorse a three-cornered contest with Labor.
This sets up a political battle between the Coalition partners at a time when they are fighting the COVID-19 crisis, which may further complicate the coming by-election.
Mr Barilaro — who clashed with Malcolm Turnbull over his leadership and almost came to blows with rogue Coalition MP Llew O’Brien — on Thursday said he was “prepared to lose” and conceded “it could be the end” if he contested the marginal seat, held on a slim 0.85 per cent margin.
Ahead of the retirement of Labor MP Mike Kelly on Thursday, the NSW Nationals conducted polling in Eden-Monaro that showed Mr Barilaro in a winning position.
The federal Nationals division will conduct wider polling in the coming days to test Mr Barilaro’s popularity in the seat, which stretches from Yass to Eden. The Liberals have also commissioned polling, with senior party figures telling The Australian they were confident they could win the seat.
Mr Barilaro, who won 52 per cent of the primary vote in his state seat of Monaro last year, warned against a clash between the Nationals and Liberals, suggesting “people shouldn’t get too excited about party brands”.
“It’s about the individual and their brand,” he said. “I’m going to take the weekend off, hide at the farm, turn off the phone. I find it easier when I’m surrounded by family. I’m going to be asking them to surrender part of their life. This isn’t just a by-election — this is a big shift in my life.”
Following Dr Kelly’s resignation, Anthony Albanese claimed underdog status as he faces a fight to avoid becoming the first Opposition Leader to lose a by-election to an incumbent government in more than 100 years.
The ALP national executive met on Thursday afternoon ahead of opening nominations, with Bega Valley Shire Mayor Kristy McBain one of the favourites to win endorsement.
“Mike Kelly is one of the few people in this place who can say that he won a seat off the Coalition not once but twice,” the Opposition Leader said. “Eden-Monaro is a tough seat to win.”
Mr Albanese said Dr Kelly, who retired from parliament following two stints across 13 years, was worth “3 to 4 per cent of the vote in Eden-Monaro”.
Labor is expected to launch an attack on Mr Barilaro on Friday, criticising him for being on an overseas holiday during the NSW bushfires.
The Liberal Party, which has held the seat multiple times since Federation, has been split over whether it should run a candidate, despite Scott Morrison declaring it would.
The Australian understands NSW Liberal Party factional players Alex Hawke and Matt Kean have been at odds over whether to allow Mr Barilaro a clean run.
Senator Jim Molan, aligned to Mr Hawke, and Fiona Kotvojs, who came close to unseating Dr Kelly at last year’s election, are considered two options to run in a three-cornered contest.
NSW Liberal minister Andrew Constance, who is based on the South Coast and was a prominent figure during the summer bushfires, is not expected to nominate if Mr Barilaro decides to run.
When asked on Friday morning by radio broadcaster Alan Jones if he would contest preselection for Eden-Monaro, Mr Constance downplayed the possibility of his candidacy.
“I think the thing is, Bar (John Barilaro) and I are not going to be contesting each other,” Mr Constance said. “Could you imagine that? I mean...”
The NSW Liberals state executive will endorse an online plebiscite of 200 members to select its candidate. Candidates are expected to deliver speeches at a tele-town hall on May 22 ahead of a 24-hour digital ballot.
Liberal sources talked down the Nationals’ polling and said they had commissioned their own field research. They said while Mr Barilaro would poll well in his Queanbeyan home base and surrounds, they were in “with a good chance to win the seat”.
Mr McCormack is also facing renewed divisions inside his partyroom, with several federal Nationals MPs briefing against Mr Barilaro. Only a handful of federal Nationals MPs are understood to back a Barilaro run.
“If he decides to put his hand up, he’s got to go through the preselection process; that’s always the case. The locals get to decide who’s going to be their candidate,” Mr McCormack said.
“If John wants to put his hand up and run, of course I’ll support him.”
Mr Barilaro said he did not want a three-cornered contest in the seat, arguing that the Prime Minister and Mr McCormack should get together and determine who would be the best candidate for the Coalition to win the seat. “I believe that the Prime Minister and the Deputy Prime Minister, our executives, need to look to the research, the polling and the data and look for the best candidate that can actually win the seat for the Coalition,” he told Sky News.
Mr Barilaro also made clear he had leadership aspirations if he were elected to federal parliament. “I think every MP has aspirations,” he said. “I’m a realist. We’ve had the leadership battle federally.
“What I’ve got to do is win the seat if I put my hand forward.”
Tony Smith, the Speaker of the House, will discuss possible by-election dates with the Australian Electoral Commission, factoring in strict COVID-19 health guidelines.
Ms McBain, who met with Mr Albanese and Dr Kelly during the bushfire crisis and recovery, has previously declared she was “independent” and “not a member of a political party”.
The lawyer, elected to council in 2012, earlier this year told the Canberra Times she had been a member of a political party but refused to clarify with whom she was aligned.
Dr Kelly said he’d had to step down because of “renal health issues” that had “required 10 medical procedures”. His wife also needed support for health issues.
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