Why John Barilaro must run in Eden-Monaro

NSW Deputy Premier John Barilaro should run in Eden-Monaro, writes Peter van Onselen. Picture: AAP

The New South Wales deputy premier, John Barilaro, should run for the federal seat of Eden-Monaro at the up coming by-election. Not only is he the most likely conservative option to wrestle the seat from the Labor Party, but a move into federal politics would see him jump to the head of the queue to lead the Nationals after Michael McCormack’s time at the top comes to an end.

The junior Coalition partner needs to assert itself and grow its breadth of seats, as rural and regional seats continue to be replaced at electoral redistributions by newly forming urban seats.

The NSW Deputy Premier won his once ultra marginal state seat – which sits within the federal seat soon up for grabs – off Labor to enter state politics, increasing its margin thereafter on the way to becoming state Nationals leader. He has the local name recognition and popularity to give the federal seat a real go. While the traditional bellwether electorate has usually been a showdown between the Labor and Liberal parties, there is no reason the Nationals can’t win it in a three cornered contest. Especially with a candidate like Barilaro.

Compulsory preferences at the federal level (unlike in state elections in NSW) mean that even if Liberals also run, the flow of preferences won’t exhaust, thereby allowing both conservative parties to safely contest the seat without damaging each other’s chances. But it is also possible a deal is done between the coalition parties such that only the Nationals contest the seat, given the profile and chances of someone like Barilaro.

The carrot of becoming Deputy Prime Minister one day must surely be an enticing prospect for Barilaro, who has never been shy weighing into the federal political domain. During Malcolm Turnbull’s prime ministership he was a constant critic, which given the controversy surrounding the recent release of Turnbull’s memoir, would likely see Barilaro welcomed to Canberra by Liberals and Nationals with open arms.

Scott Morrison was clever yesterday pointing out that government’s don’t tend to win by-elections off oppositions, thereby lowering expectations in case that indeed happens again. However, with Barilaro running there is a good chance the tradition of government’s struggling to pick up opposition seats at by-elections can be broken. Were Barilaro to do so, it would only increase his standing on arrival in Canberra.

Liberals may choose current senator Jim Molan to contest the seat, meaning he would need to step down from the Senate to do so. The unavoidable risk for the Coalition if both Molan and Barilaro run – given that Barilaro also would need to step out of state politics – is that at least one (and perhaps both) conservative politicians would be left without a chair when the music stopped after the by-election.

It is a risky proposition to be sure, especially if Labor retained the seat. But for Barilaro it is a risk worth taking. He has outgrown state politics, and could have the sort of impact nationally for the junior Coalition partner in the years ahead, were he to run and win, that just might see him rise to become one of the dominate figures in the country party across its history.

We will find out soon enough if he is prepared to go for it, or content to just tread water in state politics instead.

Peter van Onselen is the Political Editor at Network 10 and a professor of politics and public policy at the University of Western Australia and Griffith University.