Newspoll on Victorian election ‘mathematically close’

A Newspoll published in The Australian accurately tipped Daniel Andrews comfortably securing a historic third term.

Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews has secured a third term. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Ian Currie

A Newspoll published in The Australian accurately tipped Daniel Andrews comfortably securing a historic third term in government on Saturday night, as well as correctly reporting a fall in the Coalition’s primary vote and a two-party-preferred swing against Labor.

The results of the Newspoll conducted by YouGov, published in The Weekend Australian on Saturday, suggested Labor would return a two-party-preferred result of 54.5 per cent. On Sunday, the two-party-preferred count held at 54.3 per cent to Labor.

YouGov public affairs and polling Asia-Pacific head Campbell White said the predictions made were “mathematically” as close as could get to the current two-party-preferred of 54.3 per cent.

“The purpose of polling is to accurately inform readers about what is happening,” Dr White said.

“As with the federal election, and the recent state elections in South Australia, Western Australia and Queensland, The Australian’s journalists have done exactly that,” he said.

The Newspoll was also close to predicting a swing of 2 per cent against the Coalition’s primary vote compared with a survey conducted two weeks prior. Official results on Sunday morning revealed a 2.8 per cent swing against the Coalition.

Newspoll results, as published in The Australian.

Newspoll was also close to the overall two-party-preferred drop of 2.8 per cent against the Labor Party compared with 2018. Results on Sunday revealed a 3 per cent dip.

Results of a Resolve poll published in The Age on Tuesday said the electoral race was tightening between Labor and the Coalition based on primary votes.

It reported in 2PP terms “the gap between the major parties has also narrowed”, and said Labor was ahead 53 to 47 per cent with the party at risk of losing between eight and 12 seats if the result was replicated. At Sunday morning, Labor had only lost six lower house seats out of the 55 it held.

The Herald Sun also reported on Thursday that Victoria was on track for a minority government and tipped Labor would lose about a dozen seats according to a Redbridge poll.

Counting was continuing on Sunday morning, with 32.2 per cent of ballots cast yet to be counted.