Newspoll: Labor takes early lead but voters mark down budget

Labor has begun the election campaign with a rise in support, despite voters ranking Jim Chalmers’ budget as the worst for the economy in a decade.

You can now listen to The Australian's articles. Give us your feedback.

You can now listen to The Australian's articles.

Labor has secured an early lead in the election race following a slump in the Coalition’s primary vote and a fall in support for Peter Dutton, despite voters ranking Jim Chalmers’ budget last week as the worst for the economy in a decade.

An exclusive Newspoll conducted for The Australian shows Labor leading the Coalition 51-49 per cent on a two-party-preferred basis at the start of the campaign amid a political contest over energy prices, income tax cuts and fuel tax relief.

This marks a two-point gain for the Albanese government over the past three weeks and while still pointing towards a likely hung parliament, would put Labor within striking distance of retaining majority government if replicated at the May 3 election on a uniform basis.

The boost for Labor comes despite only 16 per cent of voters believing the budget and its $5-a-week tax cuts from July 2026 will improve their personal financial situation but with only 38 per cent of voters believing the Coalition would have produced a better budget.

Labor’s primary vote has risen a point to 33 per cent, continuing a trend towards the government over the past two months from a low of 31 per cent in January and February.

It is Labor’s best result this year and consistent with the 2022 election result.

The Coalition’s primary vote has fallen two points to 37 per cent, which is its lowest this year, and now sits only 1.3 per cent above its last election result.

It is three points down on its highest level of support – 40 per cent – recorded in November.

Anthony Albanese’s personal approval rating is also continuing to improve, having hit a record low at the start of the year, but now returning to the highest level since September at 43 per cent.

However, he still remains in negative territory with a disapproval rating of 52 per cent, leading to a net approval rating of minus nine.

The Liberal Party leader has posted the worst approval rating since October 2023, at minus 18, having surrendered his advantage over the Prime Minister on this measure since February when Mr Albanese suffered his worst result as leader at minus 21 compared to Mr Dutton on minus 10.

Mr Dutton’s approval rating is now lower than any score Mr Albanese posted as opposition leader and level with Bill Shorten in May 2019.

Mr Albanese has also extended his lead over Mr Dutton as the better prime minister with an 11-point margin.

This is the best result for Mr Albanese since May 2024 and eight points up on the three-point margin that separated the two leaders in January.

The Newspoll was conducted between March 27 and March 29, with 1249 voters throughout Australia interviewed online. It covered both Labor’s budget and Mr Dutton’s promised halving of the fuel levy for motorists announced last Thursday ahead of the budget-in-reply speech on Thursday night.

It also captured the period prior to the budget in which Mr Dutton focused on crime concerns, with a pledge to review the citizenship test while floating expulsion of dual-citizen criminals.

The reversal of fortunes for Labor ahead of the election stands in contrast to last week’s budget, which was poorly received by voters.

The assessment of whether the budget would be good for the economy was the lowest on record, with only 22 per cent saying they believed it would be good.

This is the worst result on this measure for a budget since the question was first asked of voters in May 1999.

A total of 32 per cent said it would be bad for the economy, which is the highest since the Coalition’s 2014-15 budget that was considered a political disaster for the then Abbott government.

Few people believed the budget would leave them financially better off despite Labor’s cost-of-living relief measures, which included an extension of energy bill subsidies.

Only 16 per cent of voters believed they would be financially better off over the next 12 months as a result – the lowest number since Dr Chalmers’ first budget in October 2022, and the second lowest since the Coalition’s 2014-15 austerity budget.

Younger voters were more inclined to consider the budget would leave them better off than people over 65.

However, voters were not convinced that the Dutton-led Coalition would have delivered a better budget, with only 38 per cent saying they would have produced a better set of numbers compared with 47 per cent who said they would have delivered a worse budget.

This is a slight improvement overall in the assessment of the Coalition based on the previous three Labor budgets, with the numbers heavily aligned with party political support.

Support for the Greens remains unchanged since the last poll conducted at the end of March, with the minor left-wing party on 12 per cent, which is in line with its result at the last election.

Pauline Hanson’s One Nation fell a point to 6 per cent, likely due to the re-emergence of Queensland billionaire Clive Palmer and his newly formed Trumpet of Patriots party.

Other minor parties and independents, including the teal independents, gained two points to 12 per cent.

However, this is 2.5 per cent down on the May 2022 election result.