Newspoll: Labor, Greens go backwards as Coalition hits three-year primary vote high

Primary support for the Coalition has lifted to the highest point in almost three years as Peter Dutton closes in on Anthony Albanese.

Peter Dutton, right, has closed in on Anthony Albanese as preferred prime minister in the latest Newspoll. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Martin Ollman

Primary support for the Coalition has lifted to the highest point in almost three years following a damaging two weeks for Labor, as Peter Dutton closes in on ­Anthony Albanese as the preferred prime minister and the two major parties draw level on a two-party-preferred basis.

A backlash against the Greens has also delivered an electoral blow to the left-wing minor party after it was forced to defend claims by both Mr Albanese and Mr Dutton that the minor party was stoking anti-Semitic protests over the Gaza war.

An exclusive Newspoll conducted for The Australian shows that, with less than a year before the next election is due, the ­Coalition’s primary vote has lifted two points to 39 per cent.

Conducted between June 3 and June 7, the survey shows the strongest primary vote for the Coalition since August 2021 under the then Morrison government.

Labor’s primary vote fell a point to 33 per cent, wiping off any nominal post-budget gains, and leaving it at levels of support consistent with the last election result of 32.6 per cent.

The two-party preferred vote has tightened four points with the major parties now tied at 50-50.

The Newspoll represents the equal best result for the Coalition during this term of parliament.

The last time the two-party-preferred contest was this close was last November, following the failure of the voice referendum in October. Prior to that, Labor has led the Coalition on a two-party-preferred basis since June 2021.

Voters have also lowered their assessment of Mr Albanese, whose approval ratings fell into negative territory in the wake of a bruising parliamentary fortnight in which the government was forced into retreat over its failed criminal deportation policy.

Mr Albanese’s lead over the Opposition Leader as preferred prime minister has narrowed to its closest margin since the last election. Mr Albanese’s lead over Mr Dutton was slashed from 19 points three weeks ago to eight in the latest survey.

The recent post-budget political cycle has been dominated by poor economic and inflation numbers, the Direction 99 controversy ensnaring Immigration Minister Andrew Giles and, last week, an escalation in parliament of the political row over anti-Semitism. The government has also sought to elevate scrutiny of Peter Dutton’s nuclear energy policy.

The Newspoll results point to a theoretical loss of at least five seats for Labor if the results were to be repeated at an election and the swing was uniformly distributed across all seats. The latest Newspoll suggests the odds of a hung parliament at the next election have increased with Labor facing the prospect of being forced into minority government in coalition with the Greens or independents.

The Greens vote fell two points to 11 per cent, its lowest since September 2022, and more than a point down on its election result of 12.2 per cent. Support for the minor parties and independents, including teal independents, lifted a point to 10 per cent but remains 4.5 percentage points down on the election result for “others”.

Pauline Hanson’s One Nation remained unchanged at 7 per cent – up two points on the election result.

Approval of Mr Albanese’s performance fell four points to 43 per cent while his dissatisfaction level rose three to 50 per cent, returning the Prime Minister to net negative approval of minus seven.

The assessment of Mr Dutton’s performance lifted marginally to 39 per cent approval – a one-point gain – while disapproval fell a point to 49 per cent. This is the closest the two leaders have been in terms of their overall approval ratings, with only three points separating them.

The most significant movement was a six-point fall to 46 per cent in those who believed Mr Albanese would make the better prime minster over Mr Dutton, who rose five points to 38 per cent. This marks the closest contest between the two since the election and the highest rating on this measure for Mr Dutton since he took on the Liberal leadership.

The Coalition won the 2019 election with a primary vote of 41.4 per cent compared to Labor’s 33 per cent. But it would need to exceed this level of primary vote support to win the next election due to the significant loss of seats it suffered in the 2022 election.

The Newspoll surveyed 1232 voters across Australia including regional and metropolitan areas.