Anthony Albanese falls victim to Labor self-harm in latest Newspoll

Anthony Albanese and Labor have lost ground in the latest Newspoll. Picture: NewsWire / Martin Ollman

Anthony Albanese is creeping closer towards Labor’s second-worst political nightmare.

While the odds of Labor being tossed out of office after only one term are slim, the prospect of being reduced to minority government is growing.

The latest Newspoll has only hardened a trend that has been gradually shifting against Labor for the past 12 months.

The Prime Minister’s anxiety about the inability to arrest this is now evident.

The all-out assault against the Greens in parliament last week served a dual purpose: to distract from the government’s problems while trying to drive a moral wedge between Labor and the Greens.

Albanese might have succeeded on both counts but the government has self-harmed along the way.

Labor has lost ground, the Greens have lost ground and Albanese has lost ground.

After the government’s recent performance, it would have been a surprise to even Albanese had the latest Newspoll not turned against him, considering the testament to incompetence that was the Direction 99 saga.

The only beneficiaries of the past three weeks of chaos were always going to be Peter Dutton and the Coalition. And this is precisely what has occurred.

The latest Newspoll shows the primary vote for the Coalition lifting two points to 39 per cent.

This is the highest level of primary support for the Coalition since events began to turn against the Morrison government in the middle of 2021.

The difference between then and now is the two-party-­preferred vote. Labor was also on 39 per cent in August 2021, giving it a 53-47 per cent lead.

Labor now is back to where it started in government: about 33 per cent. With the Greens also down two points to 11 per cent, the combined vote for the major parties of the left has fallen to 44 per cent.

With lower preference power, the two-party-preferred vote is back to 50-50.

This has dragged the government back to where it was in Nov­ember last year in the wake of the failed voice referendum, when Labor fell to 31 per cent and the Coalition lifted to 38 per cent.

The lesson from this is that the government gets punished every time its focus is diverted away from what its central focus should be: the cost of living.

While Albanese can lay claim to having not lost a News­poll to the Coalition for the past three years, he has again dipped into negative approval territory.

The post-budget lift in support for the Prime Minister and Labor – presumably due to the cash handouts – has evaporated.

Apart from the previous poll, Albanese has hovered between minus 10 and minus seven since the end of last year.

Dutton’s own numbers have gradually improved. At minus 10, there is little difference in the negative judgment voters have of him and Albanese.

The gap between the two leaders on who voters believe would make the better prime minister has also gradually improved for Dutton. Three weeks ago, the margin was 19 points in favour of Albanese.

This is now only eight points.

This has tightened beyond the average of the past six months of between 10 and 14 points to ­Albanese.

Not only has the Coalition been incrementally building back its support base, but the ­Opposition Leader is also challenging the notion that he is un­electable.

If the trend does mark the beginning of a more dangerous shift against the government and a more favourable assessment of Dutton, at some stage the ­Coalition is bound to get its nose in front.

Yet as encouraging as these results will be for the Coalition troops, they are nowhere near the level yet required to achieve what hasn’t been done post-World War II – un­seating a first-term federal government.

They would need to be well in front for a sustained period for Labor to be in danger of losing majority government.