‘Long shot to marginal’: Labor’s seat fightback

Anthony Albanese will target conservative-held Queensland seats that went from “long shot to marginal” at the last election by spruiking cost of living relief and attacking Peter Dutton’s nuclear policy.

Anthony Albanese takes a selfie with Labor candidate Rebecca Hack, rear, and a supporter in Brisbane on Thursday. Picture: Dan Peled / NewsWire

Anthony Albanese will target conservative-held Queensland seats that went from “long shot to marginal” at the last election by spruiking cost-of-living relief and attacking Peter Dutton’s nuclear policy.

Kicking off a three-day visit to the must-win state, where Labor holds five of 30 federal electorates, the Prime Minister on Thursday announced Labor’s candidates in the LNP-held Forde and in the Greens-held Brisbane seat of Ryan.

Mr Albanese will target the Opposition Leader’s ultra-marginal outer suburban seat of Dickson on Friday, and announced Ali France as Labor’s returning candidate, after she reduced Mr Dutton’s margin to just 1.7 per cent with a 2.94 per cent two-party-preferred swing to Labor in 2022.

In Forde, based on the rapidly growing commuter corridor of Logan, south of Brisbane, second-time ALP candidate Rowan Holzberger will take on the LNP’s Bert Van Manen.

In 2022, Mr Holzberger managed a 4.37 per cent swing to Labor, after preferences, cutting Mr Van Manen’s margin from 6.86 per cent to a winnable 4.23 per cent.

Mr Albanese said Forde was one of the seats Labor managed to transform from “very long shot campaigns into marginal seats” at the last election.

“If he gets the same swing that he got last time in the 2022 election, then they’ll be whoop-whooping here in Forde on election night,” he said.

Mr Albanese said every taxpayer in Forde benefited from a tax cut in their latest pay packet, had been helped by the $1300 electricity rebate from the federal and Queensland governments.

Yet others had been helped by cheaper childcare and fee-free TAFE.

He also ramped up his attack on Mr Dutton’s uncosted plan to build seven nuclear reactors across Australia, including two in Queensland, calling it “a thought bubble” and accusing him of not being “up to the job of being the ­alternative prime minister”.

Of Queensland’s 30 federal seats, Labor has five, the Greens have three, Katter’s Australian Party’s Bob Katter holds Kennedy, and the LNP holds the remaining 21, of which eight are considered winnable by Labor on margins of less than 6 per cent.

Going into the 2022 election, just five of the LNP’s Queensland seats were marginal; two of those ended up being won by the Greens.

The latest Newspoll, published this week, showed the Coalition leading Labor in Queensland 54 per cent to 46 per cent after preferences.

Queensland Labor senator Murray Watt said the ALP’s result in Queensland at the 2019 federal election was “diabolical”.

“In Queensland in 2019, we were beaten so badly,” Senator Watt told The Australian of the 2019 election result in which Labor got just 26.7 per cent of the primary vote in the state.

“So as much as we wanted to win seats in Queensland (at the election in) 2022, it was also about making a whole bunch of seats more competitive for this time around, and we achieved that.

“So really, any of the seats that are up to about 5 or 6 per cent, we see as highly winnable.”

“We’re well positioned going into this federal election in Queensland because there are a number of seats that are very much within our grasp and they’re spread around the state.

“You’ve got Leichhardt in the far north; Dickson is the most marginal seat in Queensland; and seats like this one (Forde), in the outer southern part of Brisbane, Logan, Gold Coast.”