Gender quota battle: Does Neumann challenger Howard have the numbers?
Jen Howard opted to harness gender quota rules and challenge veteran federal Labor MP Shayne Neumann at preselection for the Queensland seat of Blair. But can she count?
G’day readers and welcome to the latest edition of Feeding the Chooks, your weekly insight into what’s really going on in Queensland politics.
Blair Switch Project
Is the ballsy move by Queensland assistant treasurer Jen Howard to harness gender quota rules, and challenge veteran federal Labor MP Shayne Neumann at preselection for the seat of Blair, over almost as soon as it began?
If you are to believe Labor insiders, despite her day job as the right hand to Right faction colleague and Treasurer Cameron Dick, the ambitious MP can’t count when it comes to doing the numbers.
A storm erupted when it emerged Howard had this week filed an expression of interest to contest the preselection for Neumann’s Ipswich-based seat of Blair, which he has held since 2007.
Normally it would take a while before it became public but our spies in Canberra were eager to report Neumann going “apoplectic” that his Ipswich neighbour, and former staffer, dared to test the waters for a challenge.
On Thursday, Anthony Albanese was quick to issue a statement backing Neumann, the same bloke he thought so highly of that he dumped him from the frontbench as soon as he secured the keys to The Lodge in 2022.
The prime minister, we are told, doesn’t want to increase the risk of losing the seat (held on a margin of 5.2 percent) with a new candidate, given speculated losses in Western Australia, and the possibility of holding on with a minority government.
Howard, who has held the state seat of Ipswich since 2015, is understood to have the support of her local branch but is facing an uphill battle among the grassroots members across the rest of the sprawling electorate.
The preselection vote is split between the branchies and electoral college, with the Australian Workers’ Union swinging in behind Neumann.
Howard apparently has the support of several other unions, including the Shoppies.
But most insiders agree that the state MP has no chance, especially with the PM sending a clear message that affirmative action is only okay when it doesn’t hurt Labor’s chances at holding onto government.
Howard went on ABC radio on Friday with Steve Austin to present her case, saying she was concerned over the lack of female representation from Queensland in federal parliament.
“We’ve got eight federal elected representatives from Queensland in the federal parliament … but only two of those eight are women,” she said.
Only problem was that under long-standing state ALP rules, the MP was not allowed to talk about preselections.
She had to cancel prescheduled interviews after a call from ALP HQ.
But later, after both Howard and Neumann shared the stage for the opening of the Ipswich show, the federal MP responded to a reporter’s question about the preselection, saying his state rival “had abandoned Ipswich”.
Meanwhile, in Moreton
And while all eyes are on the battle for Blair, there seems to be a growing acceptance that Graham Perrett, the other remaining Ruddslider – who, along with Neumann, won his seat off the Libs back in 2007 – is readying for retirement.
The locally popular Perrett has steadily turned his once dicey hold on the seat of Moreton, on Brisbane’s southside, into safe Labor territory, winning in 2022 (with the help of Greens preferences) with a 9.1 per cent margin.
Former ALP state secretary Julie-Ann Campbell looks like she is going to steal the seat away from Perrett under the affirmative action rules.
Campbell quit the party HQ after the 2020 election to work for consultancy firm EY, a well-rewarded favourite of the Palaszczuk government, as an associate partner.
It was hardly a glorious departure.
Remember, 2020 was when Labor thought so highly of her political skills that they outsourced the running of that campaign to two former state ALP secretaries – lobbyists Evan Moorhead and Cameron Milner.
It was a move, revealed by The Australian, that was later condemned in an inquiry headed by Peter Coaldrake and led to a ban on the pair personally lobbying (although Moorhead’s firm is very active) in the state.
Chooks wonders why Labor powerbrokers, who have been pushing Kate Jones for the senate on the back of her high profile and skills on the stump, aren’t also looking at someone like Jackie Trad to replace Perrett.
The former deputy premier and Treasurer, who is understood to have been Gary Bullock’s initial choice for the senate, lives just outside the seat of Moreton (and, given her form, may even own an investment property in the area).
She is experienced with media, has held a multitude of serious portfolios, and was the champion of some of the Labor government’s biggest policy wins: legalising abortion, overhauling tree-clearing legislation, and voluntary assisted dying.
No-one is suggesting she is even considering it, but Chooks can’t help but think Trad was always a better fit for the big league in Canberra rather than playing second fiddle to former premier Annastacia Palaszczuk.
The Santo Santoro Situation
More than a week after the LNP blew itself up trying to avoid having former Howard government minister and erstwhile lobbyist Santo Santoro on its state executive, all seems quiet. Or is it?
LNP state director Ben Riley officially declared Tony Gleeson the chair of the metro north branch of the party on Saturday, after a fiery branch meeting at the Eagle Farm Racecourse in which the LNP’s justice spokesman Tim Nicholls was so incensed by the behaviour of his own party headquarters that he moved a motion of dissent against Riley.
Riley’s position is that Santoro was not an eligible candidate to be chair, because he was a registered lobbyist at the time he nominated, in violation of Queensland’s new dual-hatting laws, prohibiting lobbyists from playing a “substantial” role in an election campaign.
“Knowingly breaching a statue (sic) of Queensland is not a discretion I can exercise as a responsible officer of the Party,” Riley told members in a written update on Saturday.
At the meeting, branch members pushed for the vote to happen, but the ballots weren’t counted, and were taken back to headquarters, where - presumably - they still remain, uncounted. So is that the end of it?
Chooks understands Santoro is reserving all of his options, including legal recourse.
Time is ticking
The ink had bareley dried on the federal budget papers before talk of an early election spread like wildfire through political circles.
And the surge in speculation has seen Queensland’s federal Liberal National Party MPs break out in a cold sweat. Why? The party has only preselected two of its 30 lower house candidates (Maggie Forrest in Ryan and Leon Rebello in McPherson).
As Chooks reported a few weeks ago, Liberal leader Peter Dutton was one of one of ten Queensland MPs who signed a letter to LNP state director Ben Riley last August calling for their preselections to be held immediately.
But preselections are yet to be opened and party HQ is still yet to formally endorse sitting state MPs to run for the October 26 election (a fact that is driving those pollies slightly bonkers).
As one federal LNP MP tells Chooks, Tuesday’s budget and threat of an early election has made federal preselections “pressingly urgent”.
“We have called on (party HQ) before to act and they haven’t. Now we are in a difficult position because we could be just months out from an election,” they say.
Labor opened expressions of interest for its federal preselections last month, and has already endorsed its sitting state MPs. Chop chop, Mr Riley.
Integrity test
Steven Miles will face his first big integrity test as premier next week - will he release a corruption watchdog report into his Left faction ally Jackie Trad or keep it secret?
The report - which was finished more than three years ago - probed Trad’s appointment of her former under-treasurer and delved into the politicisation of the Labor administration’s recruitment of other senior bureaucrats since it came to power in 2015.
The CCC investigation also looked into the actions of the state’s former top public servant Dave Stewart (who is now living in London as Queensland’s Agent General).
Trad launched secret legal action in the Supreme Court - funded by the taxpayer - to stop the release of the Crime and Corruption Commission report. A separate High Court decision last year effectively muzzled the CCC from publicly reporting on most of its investigations into politicians and public servants.
The CCC has demanded urgent law changes to allow it to release its investigative reports and instead of granting them, Miles appointed former chief justice Catherine Holmes to lead an independent review into the watchdog’s reporting powers.
The Holmes report will be handed to the government on Monday. What will be crucial is whether Holmes recommends reporting powers are granted retrospectively or not (if they are it would force the release of Trad report).
Spotted #1
State pollies will move into their new digs at parliament next week after major renovations of the ageing annexe.
After two years of office sharing in the bowels of the building, the opposition, crossbench and government backbenchers will relocate into new offices and regional MPs (who have been living out of a hotel during sitting weeks) will have their own suites above parliament once again.
Chooks took a tour of the renovation this week and we would like to spare a moment to farewell the jacuzzi which did not survive the makeover. Installed during the Bjelke-Petersen-era, the tub was surrounded by 1970s striped carpet on the floor and walls (hygenic!).
Parliament clerk Neil Laurie says he doesn’t think anyone had dipped a toe in the spa 30 years and the last person who had a soak was probably Russ Hinze.
Spotted #2
The 33rd American president, Harry S. Truman, is credited with coining a perennial political reminder: “If you want a friend in Washington DC, get a dog”. Perhaps it also applies on the mean streets of Brisbane.
A Chooks spy this week spotted a late night Facebook comment from one-time Labor lord mayoral candidate for Brisbane, Rod Harding, under a six-year-old social media post from current Labor Opposition leader in the Brisbane City Council, Jared Cassidy.
“I’m old school proper Labor, I am embarrassed that I agreed to share a corflute with this pretend Labor total lightweight,” Harding wrote, late in the evening.
In the cold light of day, the comment had vanished.
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