Sunshine State gloom risks doom, says ALP MP Shayne Neumann

Federal Labor MP Shayne Neumann has warned it was an ‘aberration’ for Anthony Albanese to win the 2022 election while performing poorly in Queensland.

Labor MP Shane Neumann and Anthony Albanese. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Tertius Pickard

Federal Labor MP Shayne Neumann has warned it was an “aberration” for Anthony Albanese to win the 2022 election while performing poorly in Queensland, and declared the government is at risk of falling into minority at the next election unless it picks up seats in the coal-rich state.

Labor holds just five of Queensland’s 30 seats, the smallest proportion of federal seats held in the state by any incoming government since 1906, and its support has slumped over the past two months.

With Labor registering 27 per cent primary vote in Queensland in the latest quarterly Newspoll analysis, Mr Neumann said the problems the party faced in the state were bigger than one poll and addressing the issue had been put off for too long.

“We have got to win seats in Queensland to maintain majority government,” Mr Neumann said.

“We have not done well since 2007. The last time we did well before that was when Bob Hawke was prime minister. I am the only surviving regional and rural member since 2007.”

Mr Neumann, who holds the Ipswich-based seat of Blair, said the government needed to stick to talking about traditional Labor issues of health, education and cost of living. He also said the party needed to improve the public perception of its backing for the key Queensland industries of mining and agriculture.

“You can’t win seats in Queensland unless you support the mining, agricultural and tourism sectors, Mr Neumann said. “We are not doing well enough.”

Labor’s primary vote in Queensland collapsed to 26.68 per cent after the party’s disastrous 2019 campaign and edged up slightly to 27.42 per cent at the 2022 election, but resulted in a net loss of one seat, to the Greens.

Former Queensland speaker and Beattie-government minister John Mickel said Labor’s problem in Queensland federally was its inability to win seats north of ­Brisbane.

“It simply is unacceptable to be getting five out of 30 (seats) and three senators out of 12,” said Mr Mickel, now an adjunct associate professor at Queensland University of Technology.

“You’ve got to improve on that; that’s just a no-brainer.”

Labor’s poor performance ­federally in Queensland for the past decade is in sharp contrast to its success at a state level, where the ALP has been in power for 28 of the past 35 years. Mr Mickel said a handful of federal seats that were “wall-to-wall Labor” at a state level – ­including Bonner, Forde, Longman, Petrie and Opposition Leader Peter Dutton’s Dickson – were all winnable.

“It’s just self evident: what you’ve got to do is replicate that state success federally,” Mr Mickel said.

“(Federal Labor) needs to work out how to talk to people in Queensland. “Why, in a resource state like Western Australia, was Labor able to do well and yet in Queensland, it fell short?”

Mr Mickel said Queensland was different from other states because it was more regionalised, less diverse and generally older.

“Polls are not predictive but nevertheless, it is a challenge for Labor in Queensland and that challenge is to talk the language of the people … understanding cost of living issues, health, education and fair wages,” he said.

ALP Queensland state secretary Kate Flanders said the party was “obviously looking to win more seats in Queensland”.

“But I wouldn’t write off the government in any variation,” Ms Flanders said.

“We’ve seen various versions of majority government in Australia over the years but, obviously, I think it’s important to have more federal Labor representatives here.”

Brisbane-based Kevin Rudd in 2007 became the first Labor leader to win a majority of seats in Queensland since Paul Keating’s 1993 victory. Since the 2007 “Ruddslide”, Labor has lost 10 of the 15 Queensland electorates it held including regional seats Dawson, Flynn, Leichhardt and Capricornia. Another regional seat, Herbert, was won in 2016 but lost three years later.

At a July by-election for the blue-ribbon Gold Coast-based seat of Fadden, the Liberal National Party won back many of the voters it lost at the 2022 election with a 2.5 per cent two-party preferred swing against Labor.