Goldman Sachs appeal: Libs’ treasure Josh Frydenberg lost to bank

It was a late winter afternoon about six weeks ago in a Woolworths car park when a middle-aged man walked up to Josh Frydenberg with a plea.

Former member for Kooyong Josh Frydenberg with his wife Amie at the Australian Open in January.

It was a late winter afternoon about six weeks ago in the Woolworths car park in Camberwell when a middle-aged man walked up, unscripted, to Josh Frydenberg.

“Josh, you must run,’’ he said.

Two hundred metres away on Prospect Hill Rd in the heart of Melbourne’s inner east and a young mother walking a pram made the same point.

“We want you back,’’ she said.

The same sentiment at the barber’s nearby, where Frydenberg always gets a warm welcome, and a unique read on voter sentiment.

The Kooyong electorate is notoriously well-mannered but there is no doubt that, after losing the seat in the anti-Scott Morrison teal wave, Frydenberg remains outwardly popular.

Internal phone polling of the seat a month ago with a sample of about 600 people suggested Frydenberg’s net favourability had climbed to plus 20 from the election era’s plus 4 per cent.

Monique Ryan, the teal whose office is about a 500m stroll from Woolworths, now has a net favourability of plus eight compared with plus 30 when she won it off the federal treasurer, the polling suggests.

There was never much doubt about Frydenberg’s broad personal status in the seat, submerged as it was at the last election under the weight of climate change, anti-Scott Morrison sentiment and buckets of teal cash.

But his decision not to run has just made it highly unlikely the party will be able to oust Ryan next time, even if the looming redistribution pushes her deeper into conservative voting territory.

The teals spent big last year but so did Frydenberg.

Part of the story is revealed in the internal polling of the seat, conducted by KJC Research on August 19 and August 20.

It put action on climate change and the environment (26 per cent) at the top of the most-cited voter concern in Kooyong, with reducing the cost of living down to third at 18 per cent. It’s rich people’s territory, with an influx of young voters.

Then treasurer Josh Frydenberg with Peter Dutton in the House of Representatives.

As Goldman Sachs Australia’s new chairman, Frydenberg will be materially rich as well.

Kooyong is one of the few seats in Australia where a majority of voters (51 per cent) say they will vote yes for the Voice, with 46 per cent no and 3 per cent unsure.

All over Kooyong, the corflutes are out in support of constitutional change, at the same time the federal and state political leadership is heading in the other direction.

This is not to say they are politically and strategically wrong, but it is to say that Kooyong is complicated territory for the Liberal Party.

It’s an open secret among senior Liberals that Scott Morrison was a huge negative for the party in Victoria last year. While Peter Dutton is deemed to be slightly better talent to work with, Melbourne’s inner east isn’t the same demographic real estate that worked well for Robert Menzies and others.

Privately, Liberal elders have been desperate for Frydenberg to run again, given he has poured millions into the broad party coffers by tapping his business and political contacts.

There has been a view that it is basically Frydenberg or bust for the old Liberal heartland seat.

“It is a difficult decision and one I have been weighing up for some time,” Frydenberg said in his letter to Kooyong Liberals.

“It was an enormous privilege to serve our local community for nearly 12 years and be the Liberal Party’s candidate at the last five federal elections.

“Kooyong will always have a special place in the Liberal Party’s heart.”

Kooyong Liberal chairman Rod Kemp, a former senator, made clear his respect for Frydenberg.

“As John Howard has said, Josh was ‘an excellent Treasurer, a diligent local member, and the former government’s stand-out performer’.’’

It seems like forever since Frydenberg’s initial backer, then prominent Balwyn Liberal George Swinburne, threw his numbers behind Frydenberg to help get him preselected.

Swinburne told The Australian in 2008: “You should have a look at Josh. He will go a long, long way.’’

Frydenberg, a conservative turned centrist but no moderate, lost his first tilt at the seat in 2006 and then won preselection in 2010.

Then in his 30s, he was arguably the most talented and driven Victorian Liberal to fight his way into parliament since another former treasurer and deputy leader, Peter Costello.

Both lived under the shadows of others but both could easily have run the country.

So is this the end of Frydenberg?

This answer is in two parts.

First, it’s not necessarily the end of his political ambitions and if the economy continues to be stressed and cost of living remains such a hot issue, then there will be currency for another run several years later.

But Kooyong is not necessarily the vehicle for him, despite his high recognition and past history as local member.

Frydenberg, in his own frenetic way, was arguably higher profile at local football clubs, schools and Bunnings sausage sizzles than Ryan, despite the demands of high office.

But the demographic shift away from the Liberal Party in inner city Melbourne will raise inevitable questions about where the organisation looks to prosper.

A seat like Aston, so spectacularly lost to Labor, will remain a possibility but only if the Liberal brand improves in Australia’s most left wing state.

The second – and biggest factor – is whether Frydenberg would ever want to again subject his family to the terrors of Canberra life.

The relentless commuting and scrutiny has been traded for a prestigious position in a global bank, still affording time to raise young children and rebuild his Melbourne base.

It’s quite one thing for people to walk up to him in a car park and demand a return.

Quite another for him to trade the richness of his new life for the emotional poverty that Canberra often represents.