Federal election 2022: Josh Frydenberg concedes ‘difficult to win Kooyong’

Josh Frydenberg is set to lose to independent Monique Ryan as Zoe Daniel takes Goldstein.

Josh Frydenberg has effectively conceded Kooyong is lost to the Liberal Party but left open a return to politics.

The outgoing Treasurer said that while it was mathematically possible for the party to win the seat “it’s definitely difficult”, adding that he was poised to spend more time with his family.

In front of hundreds of people at Hawthorn’s Grace Park Tennis Club, Mr Frydenberg did not formally concede the seat and did not mention his opponent Monique Ryan, who is on track for an extraordinary victory.

While victory was extremely unlikely, he also said he was driven by integrity and had more to contribute.

“And there is a lot left in the tank,” he said.

On a two party-preferred basis, Dr Ryan is ahead 54.5 per cent to 46.5 per cent, with postal votes unlikely to be enough to secure victory for the deputy federal leader.

The Liberal Party, until counting was under way, was still hopeful of winning the seat, which is the financial stronghold of the party in Victoria.

Mr Frydenberg said he would have more time to be a better father now that a loss seemed inevitable.

He sent a message to his Liberal colleagues who also lost: “My heart bleeds for you. Because you, like me, have left nothing on the field.”

There were several hundred people who attended the election function, many of whom had manned booths and worked for the Treasurer.

Former Liberals in the crowd including former senators Richard Alston and Rod Kemp, former premier Ted Baillieu, shadow state treasurer David Davis and former Kennett minister Mark Birrell.

Yashpal Vasndera, a retiree from Doncaster, said he was a strong Frydenberg man.

“I would be so sad,” he said.

“I am a very strong supporter of the Liberal Party.”

Of the revellers, none was expecting the rout in Melbourne’s inner seats, the three electorates of Kooyong, Higgins and Goldstein being the party’s revered seats in Victoria.

Liberal powerbroker Michael Kroger said Victoria had lacked a federal leader from his home state for decades.

The loss of Frydenberg would be a disaster, he said.

“He’s a future Prime Minister,” Mr Kroger said.

The result will devastate the party’s three biggest fundraising branches, fundamentally the bedrock of the party in Victoria.

Josh Frydenberg speaks to his supporters at the Grace Park Hawthorn Club. Picture: David Caird

Dr Ryan has given “a thank you speech”, not a victory speech.

More than a thousand people packed the Auburn Hotel on election night to watch the Climate 200 backed independent make history.

Dr Ryan was met with cheers and chants of “we love you Monique”.

Dr Ryan, flanked by her husband and children, was emotional as she thanked everyone who voted and her campaign team, adding the last six months have been “exhausting, exhilarating and hectic”.

“Our climate has changed,” Dr Ryan said to an exuberant crowd.

“Mr Frydenberg thanked his family. Now I’d like to thank mine,” Dr Ryan said as she gestured to the thousand-strong crowd before her.

“We don’t have a concession, we don’t have an answer, but we know where we stand,” she said.

“Whatever happens, Kooyong is never going to be the same again.

“We’ve made history tonight.”

Dr Ryan added she had prepared a concession speech instead of a victory speech because she wasn’t expecting to win the Liberal heartland seat away from Mr Frydenberg.

⁦@Mon4Kooyong⁩ has addressed more than 1000 people at her election party as she is poised to win the seat of Kooyong. “This is not a victory speech, this is a thank you speech.” ⁦@australian⁩ pic.twitter.com/aBJy2xAwG0

— Alexandra Middleton (@alexandraamidd) May 21, 2022

Earlier, Dr Ryan paused to digest the news, telling the The Australian it was “extraordinary”.

“We’ve done an incredible job. I’m actually feeling a bit sad that this extraordinary adventure is drawing to a close,” Dr Ryan said.

“Now we just have to sit up, cross our fingers … and wait.”

Dr Ryan added even if she doesn’t win Kooyong this time, the independent movement “isn’t going anywhere”.

“We’re not going away regardless of what happens tomorrow,” Dr Ryan said.

“There’s never been a community campaign like this in this electorate before. We brought together 2000 people and we won’t go back.

“A lot of things come into it and one of (those things) is Covid. People are coming out of Covid – the most anxious and unhappy time of our lives with so much anxiety and uncertainty – and now they’ve found a common cause and a community.

“This isn’t going anywhere.”

Dr Ryan voters rejoiced as early polling showed there had been an eight per cent swing away from the Liberals in the marginal seat of Kooyong.

Earlier, Millionaire Climate 200 convener Simon Holmes a Court was among the crowd at Dr Ryan’s party, telling The Australian he thought Dr Ryan had “a fighting chance”.

“She’s gone out and raised a lot of money and 2000 donors. She’s knocked on 55,000 doors, which is the greatest number of doors knocked in any campaign this century, maybe ever in Australia,” Mr Holmes a Court said.

“She has courage, a strong moral compass and she is committed to voting for climate and integrity and a future facing economy … which is a great contrast to the incumbent, Josh Frydenberg, who has been weak on all of those three issues.”

Mr Holmes a Court, who has donated around two per cent of the $12 million raised for Climate 200, said he is confident from pre-polling Dr Ryan “has a good chance” at winning the seat from Mr Frydenberg.

Dr Ryan’s campaign has raised around $1m from community donations alone.

“She is definitely the underdog here,” he said.

“She’s in with a good chance. But I think it’ll be – to use that political cliche – it’ll be neck and neck.”

Wilson loses Goldstein to Daniel

Independent Zoe Daniel says her victory over Liberal Tim Wilson in the once safe liberal seat of Goldstein is a win for democracy.

“What we have achieved here is extraordinary,” Ms Daniel told a cheering crowd at the Brighton bowling club in Melbourne. “This moment is a testament to the strength of our democracy.”

“There’s a lot of stuff to fix but what this says is that the community can make a difference,” she said.

“What it says is that we do have control of our democracy and we are retaking control of our democracy,’ she said standing on a stage with her family and campaign team.

She said she took the “rightful place” of the woman who the seat was named after, Vida Goldstein, who was an early feminist parliamentary candidate who contested five separate elections.

Independent Zoe Daniel claims victory in the seat of Goldstein. Picture: Jake Nowakowski

Ms Daniel had to achieve a 7.8 per cent swing to take the seat from Wilson who has held it since 2016. With counting still in progress last night and more than 45 per cent of the overall vote counted, Ms Daniel was leading comfortably with a 13 per cent swing away from Liberal giving her a lead of 55.5 per cent to 44.5 per cent on a two party preferred basis.

“This is really a very special moment for our community. With some sensible decision making, some reasoned decision making and some collaboration and some genuine interaction and some empathy and honesty and sincerity then we can change things,” she said.

Ms Daniel becomes the first non-liberal to win the affluent Melbourne bayside seat since it was created in 1984.

“This has brought hope I think. People say that independents will bring about chaos, I say the reverse. I say that I am here to bring about progress. I am here to bring genuine collaboration between partisan parties that cannot interact.’ the 49 year old former ABC journalist told the crowd.

Ms Daniel dedicated her victory to the ABC’s long time reporter and presenter Carolyn Jones who died this week.

“I offer to be an honest broker on the cross bench,” she said. “We now have a chance to actually make a difference,” she said.

Tim Wilson speaks to media during his election night party. Picture: Jake Nowakowski

Mr Wilson has addressed his crowd in the seat of Goldstein – his supporters resorting to hugs, wine and even a few tears following a suspected loss.

The mood has officially shifted in the seat as it is deemed “unwinnable”.

The MP sought to comfort his supporters as he gave his first speech of the night, thanking volunteers, family, friends and his husband, Ryan.

Speaking to the sombre room, he said early and postal voting has a “long history” of favouring the Liberal Party, suggesting that the votes yet to be counted may shift the result.

“While we will not seek false hope, we also have to be realists. And we’re not going to know that result clearly tonight,” he said.

“The one thing I want to stress more than anything else, is how much of a privilege he has been for the last six years to represent our wonderful community.”

While @TimWilsonMP hasn’t conceded just yet, he has addressed the crowd at the Black Rock Yacht Club, thanking his husband Ryan for his support.

The mood has officially shifted here with a lot of hugs going around and even a few tears.

Lots of 🍷’s

#AusVotes22pic.twitter.com/9rMWNdXjxi

— Carly Douglas (@Carly__Douglas) May 21, 2022

With a significant proportion of the Bayside electorate counted, a Liberal Party victory seems unlikely.

Ms Daniel is way ahead at 56.7 per cent, while Mr Wilson is trailing behind at 43.3 per cent.

The win will make the 49 year old former ABC journalist the first non-Liberal to win Goldstein since the seat was created in 1984. Mr Wilson has held the affluent bayside seat since 2016, but has struggled to sell his message to an electorate which ranked climate change as its major concern in polls leading up to the election.

Allen not conceding in Higgins

The count is going against her, but Liberal Katie Allen isn’t conceding the loss of her blue ribbon inner Melbourne seat of Higgins yet.

The AEC is currently projecting a 53.46 per cent to 46.54 per cent win for Labor candidate Michelle Ananda-Rajah in the seat previously held by Harold Holt, John Gorton and Peter Costello and never before held by Labor.

Thanking her campaign volunteers, staff and family, Dr Allen said she still hadn’t given up hope of holding her seat, but recognised she may lose it.

“I have to say, I don’t know if the Liberal Party wants me to keep going, but I ain’t going to stop,” Dr Allen said.

Subdued mood at ⁦@KatieAllenMP⁩’s event in Higgins but she’s not conceding yet. Says the count is still going and she’ll “keep fighting for liberal values” and put herself forward to run again next time even if she loses. #auspolpic.twitter.com/NickE1VLL0

— Rachel Baxendale (@rachelbaxendale) May 21, 2022

“We’ve got a couple of weeks of counting, but if we do lose the seat, Heaven forbid we do, I’m back in three years’ time.

“The counting will keep going. It’s not been a great day overall across the nation, but at the end of the day, we will keep fighting each and every day because we believe in Liberal values.

“I’m so proud to be the current member for Higgins at this point in time. I’m so proud that you put your faith in me at preselection on the 24th of February, which happens to be my birthday, in 2019.

“Thank you for putting your trust in me. I hope I haven’t let you down. I believe I’ve left nothing on the field and I’m very proud to be Liberal.”

With Cameron Stewart, Alexandra Middleton, Rachel Baxendale