Liberals eye Monique Ryan’s scalp in redraw of boundaries in Kooyong seat

The Liberal Party is eyeing an overhaul of the Kooyong boundaries that would threaten teal Monique Ryan’s hold on the inner eastern Melbourne seat.

Liberal strategists say independent MP Monique Ryan’s agenda and ­decision-making is not resonating in the more conservative parts of Kooyong. Picture: Ian Currie

The Liberal Party is eyeing an overhaul of the Kooyong boundaries that would threaten teal Monique Ryan’s hold on the inner eastern Melbourne seat.

A looming redistribution is set to abolish one Victorian seat after voters updated their addresses with Medicare after getting vaccinated and net overseas migration fell to the lowest level in a century.

Senior Liberals are preparing for the potential for the seat of Chisholm, now Labor-held, to be abolished, creating a domino effect in eastern Melbourne, which was once reliable Liberal territory.

Under a scenario being war-gamed by senior Liberals, they would encourage the redrawing of the Kooyong boundaries to stretch deeper into Melbourne’s east, where there are more conservative booths.

The inner east of Kooyong, a few kilometres east of the MCG, is trending towards left-wing parties, particularly in Hawthorn West and booths near the Glenferrie Rd shopping precinct.

The nearby marginal Labor seat of Higgins, once a Liberal heartland seat, also is facing potential abolition or a significant redrawing of its boundaries with one of the largest enrolment deficits in Australia.

A senior Liberal source said the Australian Electoral Commission would be looking hard at Chisholm, as well as a series of Labor seats in Melbourne’s north, which have too few voters each for a quota.

The various parties and independents will be able to make submissions to the AEC, which will decide which of the Victorian seats is to be scrapped.

Dr Ryan said she was yet to focus on the redistribution, with the AEC likely to make its decision in 2024, ahead of the next election, but a senior Liberal source said early planning was under way to try to sell the case for an overhaul of eastern suburbs boundaries.

“The maths are quite straightforward. If or when Chisholm goes, the impact will ripple across the east,” the source said.

“That means there are opportunities for us to advocate for the best possible outcome in key seats. Kooyong is an obvious seat that could be won back.”

The Liberal Party did not comment and is heavily focused on trying to retain the outer suburban seat of Aston after the resignation from federal parliament of former Morrison minister Alan Tudge, but there is growing optimism that the Liberal Party will be able to win Kooyong amid an embarrassing court case facing Dr Ryan.

Liberal strategists also believe Dr Ryan’s policy agenda and ­decision-making is not resonating in the more conservative parts of Kooyong.

Amid deep voter concern about the cost of living, the Liberal Party is planning to use Dr Ryan’s social media and policy positions to try to regain the trust of traditional conservative voters who rebelled against Scott Morrison’s prime ministership.

It comes as former treasurer Josh Frydenberg is increasingly likely to run against Dr Ryan, multiple sources said.

He is unlikely to make a decision until next year but supporters said he was “gearing up” for the critical fundraising stage; money will go a long way towards deciding the outcome of Kooyong after Dr Ryan and Mr Frydenberg pumped millions into the seat.

Dr Ryan spent about $2.1m to win the seat but Mr Frydenberg is estimated to have spent about $2.5m to lose, an eye-watering combined spend.

A Labor source said the party’s biggest concern was that the AEC could opt for a simple redistribution change in Melbourne’s north, cutting one seat, possibly the new electorate of Hawke, which is held by rising Labor star Sam Rae.

Mr Rae last year suffered a primary vote swing of more than 7 per cent, amid apparent voter dissatisfaction over the pandemic.