Is the PM getting ready to push the nuclear election button?

Anthony Albanese on Wednesday during a visit to the construction site of a new station in the Western Sydney Aerotropolis. Picture: NewsWire / John Appleyard

Anthony Albanese insists no early election is on the cards. Senior ­Coalition figures aren’t convinced.

And from the posturing this week by the Prime Minister, it is easy to see why.

Albanese clearly believes Peter Dutton had a brain snap at the weekend by triggering a debate about climate change, the 2030 targets and three-headed fish.

The Opposition Leader, on the other hand, thinks running a climate target election campaign in the middle of a cost-of-living crisis would be welcome madness.

Taking to the prime ministerial courtyard in Parliament House on a public holiday for the sole purpose of having a crack at the Liberal leader over climate change would ordinarily appear odd.

Unless, of course, it was part of a broader strategy to start framing early election parameters on Labor’s terms.

An early election is one theory the Coalition has been war-gaming. And two potential dates for this year being tossed around by some Liberal MPs include September 14 or December 7.

A September poll is a wildcard, and while unlikely is not beyond the possible. Albanese, in a Wednesday radio interview, once again ruled the early option out.

“We intend to serve out our term,” he said.

However, if Albanese thought the economic news was going to get worse before it gets better, the temptation will be there, based on the question of whether things now are as good as it gets for him this side of May next year?

The PM’s activity since the weekend has enlivened the minds of some Liberal MPs to the potential for him calling a snap poll sometime after parliament rises in July for the winter break.

The general principle is that a leader goes to an election only if they think they can win, or if they are convinced that things are only going to get worse.

Plenty of business leaders think the economic conditions are only going to deteriorate. There would be a lot of explaining to do from Labor if the next quarter goes into negative territory.

It might sound crazy but a September 14 poll would be before the grand finals and before the Queensland election and would be soon enough for Labor to be still basking in the glow of July wage rises and tax cuts putting more money in people’s pockets.

It would also get in before the redistribution in NSW, if Labor thought it was going to be bad for the party.

The Coalition would be caught off guard and Albanese could seek a mandate on renewables over nuclear – with the accompanying scare campaign of mushroom clouds and three-headed fish – and make it about anything other than the economy.

While the polls suggest going down this path would likely tip Labor into minority government, Albanese has enough fat in the numbers to comfortably govern with the support of at least four teal independents. Sure, it’s a minority government and it’s ugly but it’s not a minority Labor government with Adam Bandt.

The last option for an election before Christmas would likely be December 7. Given Albanese’s insistence an early poll is not on the cards – he cites his preference for four-year terms rather than three – his attacks on Dutton this week can then only be about seizing the political opportunity handed to him to mobilise the Labor base.

When leaders are under pressure, they tend to play to their natural bias. For Dutton, this is ­national security and borders. For Albanese, it is climate change.

Illustration: Emilia Tortorella

From the Liberal leader’s ­attack on 2030 targets destroying the economy, it might appear he has all but given up on winning back the teal seats. And if you can’t win at least some of them back, so goes the logic, it’s hard to see how the ­Coalition could hope to form ­government.

But Dutton is of the belief that when the Coalition picks a fight with Labor over renewable energy targets and energy prices, it wins.

When it goes “me too” on climate change, it loses.

Tony Abbott won in 2013 over the carbon tax. When Malcolm Turnbull took the softer option, the Coalition almost lost the 2016 election. Scott Morrison went hard in 2019 and won that election, but after going all in on 2050 net zero in 2022, they lost again. It’s a loose theory and ignores other factors that contributed to wins and losses of the past four contests.

Dutton is playing to the continuation of a basic political equation, that there is a tolerance level for how much families are prepared to spend on climate change.

Looking at the polls, he must realise that to lift the primary vote of the Coalition, he needs to draw back support from the right.

With Labor at a primary vote of only 33 per cent, some Liberal strategists may be of the view that there probably isn’t too much left in that well to draw from.

The Coalition has more than 100 policies lodged with the Parliamentary Budget Office for costing, indicating they are getting as prepared as they can. But they may soon want to start letting everybody else in on the secret if their predictions of an early election have some credence.