Federal election 2022: Who won week three of the campaign?

Who won week three of the campaign? Our experts have their say. Picture: Jason Edwards/Jeremy Piper

Every Friday during the 2022 federal election campaign, Chris Kenny and Troy Bramston will hand down their verdict on the week that was. Here’s how our commentators saw the third week on the hustings, as Labor pushed ahead while Anthony Albanese remained in isolation with Covid.

Election 2022 verdict: Week one | Week two

Bramston: Labor wins week, but Albanese must be match fit

Labor won the third week of the election campaign, helped by Anthony Albanese being in Covid isolation which meant there were no gaffes but more importantly because the key issues — economy and national security — put the Coalition on the back foot.

Troy Bramston.

The 5.1 per cent annual inflation rate confirmed soaring food, fuel, health, education and housing costs with an increase in mortgage interest rates certain to follow. With Australians seeing little change in their wages, they want the government to explain how it will easing cost-of-living pressures.

The security pact between the Solomon Islands and China has also put national security in the spotlight. It is a clear failure of the government’s foreign policy. Peter Dutton’s “prepare for war” talk on Anzac Day was over-the-top and made the government look desperate. That said, Richard Marles’ wishy-washy stance on China has made him a liability for Labor.

The absence of Albanese, confined to just a few TV and radio interviews from his home, has allowed Labor’s frontbench to strut their stuff. Shadow Treasurer Jim Chalmers and campaign spokesman Jason Clare have emerged as Labor’s best performers in this election. They have scored hits on the government day after day, enabling the opposition to win the week.

As Albanese heads to Perth for Labor’s campaign launch on Sunday, he must present a clear, coherent and compelling pitch for returning his party to power. This is what Labor has lacked so far: a cut-through message. It is not enough to bank on voters just wanting to vote out the Coalition.

Scott Morrison is the superior campaigner and polls show he maintains a leadership edge as preferred prime minister but also as better able to manage the pandemic response, the economy and national security. He needs to maintain this edge to win the election.

The independents continue to gain a lot of media attention. A senior Liberal told me that if the election was held this week, three or four Liberal seats in Sydney and Melbourne would be lost to the so-called teal independents bankrolled by Climate 200. They could potentially take more seats from the Coalition than Labor.

Scott Morrison at the Lark Distillery with candidate for Lyons Susie Bower on Friday. Picture: Jason Edwards

At the midpoint of the campaign, this election is still too close to call and much could happen to swing it either way. While a hung parliament cannot be ruled out, it is still Labor’s election to lose. Albanese better be match fit for what will be the most testing three weeks of his life.

Kenny: Covid isolation allows Labor to arrest polling decline

It says something about the lack of substance in this campaign and Labor’s desultory case for change that the closest Anthony Albanese has come to winning a week is the seven days he spent in Covid isolation. By essentially removing Albanese from the campaign, the ALP arrested its polling decline and avoided any major gaffes.

Chris Kenny.

There were still problems, to be sure, with Albanese confirming Labor’s reckless plan to axe temporary protection visas, in the one challenging interview he did from home with 2GB’s Ray Hadley. Anyone with memory capacity beyond a goldfish will recall that Kevin Rudd’s repealing of TPVs created the pull factor that restarted our people-smuggling horror in 2008.

Labor climate policy began to unravel too, with climate minister-in-waiting Chris Bowen declaring coal mines would be forced to reach net-zero emissions by purchasing carbon credits, while his junior, Pat Conroy, insisted they would be exempt. This proactive use of the heavy industry cap, or safeguards mechanism, has been described by outgoing Labor frontbencher Joel Fitzgibbon as a “carbon constraint or a carbon tax”.

Still, because Albanese was out of action – not crook by all accounts – but doing little media, no virtual media conferences or debates, none of these difficulties were amplified as they are when they envelop the leader. You get the sense Labor will be disappointed isolation rules were cut recently from a fortnight to just a week, yet still they stress Albanese is under doctor’s orders to take it easy for a few days and is dodging full media accountability.

We can’t be too dismissive of Covid, of course, but Labor clearly treated the past week as a chanced to implement Joe Biden’s basement strategy; which is kinda brave given one of their key lines against Morrison is that he goes “missing”. Given Labor’s campaign aim is to avoid substantial policy debate and protect its polling lead for six weeks, this week of Covid interruptus has soaked up time and given them a chance to relaunch for the second half of the campaign.

Anthony Albanese left isolation on Friday. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Jeremy Piper

The higher-than-expected inflation figure highlighted cost of living pressures driven largely by global factors and the unprecedented amounts of stimulus slushing around the economy. Labor’s efforts to blame the government’s economic management are undermined by their own policy alternatives over the past year, pushing tens of billions of dollars of unnecessary extra spending on JobKeeper extensions, cash incentives for vaccinations and partial nationalisation of Virgin airlines.

Still, the gradual return from emergency low interest rates to something closer to normality should not generate financial ructions. And the Coalition ought be pleased debate is now firmly focused on the economy and national security.

While the polls are stubborn for the Coalition, except for Morrison’s growing personal favourability, the trend of the campaign fundamentals continues to favour them. We will soon know whether voting preferences are crystallising or voters have already decided to shun both major parties.

The real losers of the week were the fake independents. Mayo Independent MP Rebekha Sharkie levelled with voters about negotiating firstly with the Coalition in the even of a hung parliament.

Although part-funded by Simon Holmes a Court’s Climate 200, Sharkie reasoned it was not up to independents to turf out a sitting government and she explained that the expectations of voters in her traditionally Liberal seat should be respected.

This was wise and honest and it showed up the deliberate deceptions of the “Voices of” candidates in Kooyong, Goldstein, Wentworth, North Sydney and elsewhere. Unlike Sharkie, they refuse to speak frankly about their obvious desire to install a Labor/Greens minority government.