Federal election 2022: Who won week four of the campaign?

Who won week four on the campaign trail? Picture: Liam Kidston/Jason Edwards

Every Friday during the 2022 federal election campaign, Chris Kenny and Troy Bramston will hand down their verdict on the week that was. Here’s how our commentators saw the fourth week, as Anthony Albanese – back on the hustings – was put under the microscope and events hit the Coalition.

Election 2022 verdict:Week one | Week two | Week three

Bramston: Small win for Labor, but Albanese must sharpen up

Labor eked out a narrow win this week, despite Anthony Albanese’s blunder on his NDIS policy, because the Coalition was again mugged by events: fallout over the Solomons-China pact, soaring inflation and now mortgage payments going up. And Labor united for its campaign launch while Malcolm Turnbull encouraged Liberal supporters to vote independent.

Troy Bramston.

Albanese’s latest stumble is nevertheless a cause for deep concern within Labor. Voters are not yet sold on switching their vote to Labor. Albanese insists he is across his briefs but was caught out not knowing the six points of his NDIS plan. He deferred to colleagues Jim Chalmers, Chris Bowen and Jason Clare to answer tricky questions. Again, he needs to sharpen up.

I was in Perth on Sunday for Labor’s campaign launch. Albanese gave an effective speech which showcased his key policies and political values with a workmanlike delivery. Albanese managed to get Paul Keating and Kevin Rudd to attend, showcasing a united Labor. Keating is tribal Labor; Rudd would go to the opening of an envelope.

The same cannot be said for the Coalition, with Turnbull making another campaign intervention, saying disgruntled Liberal supporters should vote independent. He won’t confirm if he is voting Liberal. John Howard, campaigning around the country for his party, would never be so treacherous.

The big issue of the week was the Reserve Bank increasing the official cash rate. Most governments in the past 30-plus years have faced rising interest rates but only once during a campaign (2007). It is a blow for the government because the budget was aimed at relieving cost-of-living pressures but they are getting worse by the day.

Scott Morrison is a superior campaigner to Albanese. He is fighting for his government’s survival on two fronts: against Labor and against the Climate 200-backed teal independents. The Coalition still has a path to victory despite being behind in the polls if they can sandbag seats and snatch a few from Labor.

All eyes will be on the final election debates – Sunday on Nine and Wednesday on Seven. Suggestions that they don’t matter much are false. If a leader makes a mistake, it could be fatal. It is a chance to persuade undecided voters. Bob Hawke’s solid debate performance against Andrew Peacock in 1990 helped Labor secure a fourth election victory. Morrison will be hoping for the same.

Anthony Albanese on Thursday. Picture: Liam Kidston

Early voting begins Monday. We could see 40-50 per cent of the electorate cast their ballots before May 21. That is why there will not be any significant policy announcements from here on. The campaigns will turn even more negative, using advertising – billboards, TV, radio, social media, letterbox drops – to propagate their messages. It will be a wild and thrilling final fortnight.

Kenny: Next fortnight to make or break Albanese

Anthony Albanese has failed to win any momentum for the fourth straight week in this campaign. The Labor Leader has not won a day in this contest, let alone a week, and his electioneering failure can be attributed to six central reasons.

Chris Kenny.

The first is his repeated demonstration that he is clueless about the nation’s key economic indicators, unfamiliar with the basics of core policy areas such as border protection and ignorant about his own policy detail. The other five reasons have slipped my mind so you will have to get them from someone else.

All jokes aside, we are seeing how the rigours of an election campaign are an important part of our democratic process, even when there is little to debate by way of grand policy differences. This is where leaders and their teams are stress-tested to see whether they are up to the task of running a significant country.

It appears that Albanese is not up to the task. The demands on a prime minister are extraordinary – the extent of knowledge, mastery of policy detail, adroitness at making arguments, and avoiding pitfalls while under constant attack.

Think of the figures, concepts, arguments, and factors that keep a federal Treasurer on their toes, then add the mastery of history, initiatives, interests and threats that demand dexterity and diplomacy in a foreign minister, throw in defence issues, welfare complexities, a full range of local controversies and the overlying demands of partisan political posturing, and you have all this resting on the fulcrum of a prime minister, or a party leader in a campaign. The pressure Albanese is feeling now – and it will be immense – is what a prime minister must be prepared to carry on their shoulders every day.

The Labor Leader has faced plenty of heat during week four of the campaign. Picture: Liam Kidston

If the Labor Leader is prepared to announce and advocate a six-point plan on something as significant as the NDIS, he ought to be able to recount it. But if not, he ought to be able to authoritatively brush off the question, refer media to where they can source that detail and make his preferred points.

That Albanese could do neither of these things points to both his lack of capacity or effort in being across policy detail, and his wilting under the pressure of the campaign. Yet last night on the ABC he claimed he had not made a mistake and that he was not given an opportunity to answer the NDIS question.

That is clearly not true; he had ample opportunity, was asked a number of times, and tried to fudge his answer. It is unbecoming, and dishonest, to then deny your error and invent excuses for yourself.

Scott Morrison on Thursday. Picture: Jason Edwards

This morning Albanese seemed to offer yet another excuse, suggesting he might be suffering from a Covid hangover. When reporters pursued the issue, he reacted angrily and then segued to an emotive story about his late mother’s struggles.

For all the lack of policy debate, the delusion from both major parties about the real challenges that lie ahead, and the illogical and dishonest campaigning of the fake independents, we are actually seeing a fascinating election contest. Because we are watching a Labor Party that has been ascendant in the polls for a long period deliberately running a small target strategy, but now gritting its teeth and crossing its fingers in the hope its leader can hold it together, or pull it together, long enough to be ahead on election day.

The next 14 days are crucial for the future of the nation. They will also make or break Anthony Albanese.