Federal election 2019: our verdict on week four of the campaign
Every Friday during the 2019 federal election campaign, Chris Kenny and Troy Bramston will pass their verdict on the week that was. Here’s how our commentators saw the fourth week on the hustings, as we head towards the final stretch.
Election 2019 verdict: Week one | Week two | Week three
Kenny: Labor not acting like winners
Bill Shorten, Penny Wong and Tanya Plibersek showed us what they thought of the campaign this week, and they weren’t behaving like winners. Shorten got snarky and negative when attacking the Coalition’s negativity, Plibersek fulminated over Labor’s time-honoured Murdoch conspiracy whinge, and Wong snarled and refused to shake her opponent’s hand after a polite debate.
To be sure, they are in the final days of a six-year campaign to return to power so, even if their internal polling tells them they are still on track to win the election, they are entitled to be a little tired and toey. But clearly the pressure is starting to show.
Scott Morrison has been remarkably energetic and relaxed throughout this campaign and has kept an even tone. As a long-time frontrunner probably under even more pressure, Shorten too has usually appeared relaxed and sounded controlled in front of the cameras.
The Labor Leader has often called upon his frontbenchers to provide policy detail and has ushered in Kristina Keneally to deliver attack lines so that he is not seen as the aggressor. But a few times this week he couldn’t resist lashing out himself — which might not have been such a bad idea because his snark usually hits the mark.
The question here is whether the crankiness and emotion we have seen on the campaign trail this week is just the normal pressures playing out in an arduous contest, or the tightening race creating frustration and worries in the ALP camp. Even the possibility of losing when they have been so confident over the past six months would be enough to knock them off kilter.
Wong was wrapping up a debate in Adelaide with the Greens’ Sarah Hanson-Young, Australian Conservative’s Cory Bernardi and Liberals’ Simon Birmingham when she scowled and refused to shake Birmingham’s hand. There had been nothing personal or nasty in the debate; apparently Wong was miffed that her Senate counterpart highlighted strong pro-China sentiment in Labor ranks.
Plibersek overreacted to story in The Daily Telegraph that filled in the career details of Shorten’s late mother, Dr Ann Shorten. The story was aimed at exposing the Labor Leader for relaying what might be seen as a story of success and inspiration in a way that focused more on disadvantage and lack of fulfilment.
It was a delicate and controversial story given front page tabloid treatment in The Tele. Other News Corp papers ran it inside as a minor story and the Herald Sun ignored it altogether.
Yet Labor’s Deputy Leader said this was a “new low” in “one of the dirtiest campaigns” she had seen and that the story proved Rupert Murdoch “still wants to have a say” in the election from New York. This predilection for conspiracy theories is not limited to Labor, of course, with ABC 7.30’s Laura Tingle describing the story as an “attack on Bill Shorten’s mother” when it contained nothing but praise of her.
Shorten’s reaction was understandably emotional but the almost universal reaction from the gallery that this was a cut-through moment in the campaign is unlikely to be reflected by voters. It confirmed the prejudices of both those who admire Shorten or dislike him but the reaction from swinging voters is likely to be mixed.
The question is whether they saw his teary response as endearing and authentic or as a demonstration of fragility under pressure. People have strong views about this episode, and it shows that campaigns invariably throw up unpredictable moments.
Labor goes into the final week not having clearly won a week in the campaign. Yet the Coalition needed at least to win every week to hang on to power.
If Morrison doesn’t emphatically win the final week he can’t hold on to power. But Shorten could weather another week of swings and roundabouts and still emerge as prime minister.
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Bramston: Shorten recovers from early stumbles
Bill Shorten easily won the fourth week of the campaign and Labor remains on track for an election victory next Saturday.
But you never say never in politics and both sides acknowledge the race has tightened in key marginal seats across the country. The chance of an upset victory for the Coalition, while unlikely, is always a chance.
Shorten did not start the campaign well. In the first week, several stumbles on policy put the Labor campaign on the back foot. I scored the week as a win for the Coalition. Labor insiders recall that Shorten did not start the 2016 campaign well either but ended up winning a net 14 seats.
But Shorten is finishing the campaign strongly. His campaigning has sharpened significantly. Labor’s big and bold policy agenda stands in contrast to the Coalition which seems to be running out of new ideas.
The Labor leader gave a strong performance on the ABC’s Q&A program at the start of the week, fielding questions on a range of issues from the audience. This is a tricky format and some politicians do not do that well. Just ask Kevin Rudd. Shorten deserves credit for fronting up while Scott Morrison refuses to do so.
Shorten won the debate midweek as much of it was spent discussing Labor policies. In my debate verdict for The Australian, I argued that both leaders performed well. But Shorten outlined and defended a bolder, broader and more positive policy agenda for the future than Morrison.
The Daily Telegraph front page article on Wednesday suggesting Shorten had omitted details about his mother’s career prompted a teary and heartfelt response and will be seen as a seminal moment in the campaign.
I agree with Andrew Bolt, who argued: “Shorten spoke truly when he said his mother sacrificed her dream to be a lawyer, taking up teaching to help her siblings. There is no invention here.”
Labor’s nightly tracking polling shows that story in The Daily Telegraph, and Shorten’s response, only helped to boost his standing in marginal seats.
Interestingly, the Liberal Party’s tracking polling showed that Scott Morrison’s personal ratings lifted after the attempt to egg him at a Country Women’s Association event earlier in the week.
The point is that both Morrison and Shorten handled themselves very well, and voters liked what they saw.
Labor’s costings released this morning show its policies are fully funded and they will not only deliver a budget surplus in 2019-20, like the government, but will deliver larger budget surpluses into the future.
Full credit is due here to Chris Bowen and Jim Chalmers, Labor’s key economic team, who have had to come up with revenue measures to fund a big-spending policy program while keeping the budget in surplus and also paying down debt.
The earlier than usual release of the opposition’s costings is another reason why Labor won the week. These are prepared by the independent Parliamentary Budget Office and they have also been “signed off” by an independent panel of experts.
Labor’s worst moment this week was when Penny Wong refused to shake Simon Birmingham’s hand at an election debate in Adelaide. While debate can be robust, we need more not less civility in politics. It was an extremely petty moment for Wong who should know better. It was widely replayed on the evening TV news.
While Labor won the week, Morrison and Josh Frydenberg continue to campaign well. The one-two punch attack team has raised voter doubts about many of Labor’s policies, especially on taxation and climate change. The Liberal duo is energetic, disciplined and on-message.
Is it enough to persuade voters to ignore the past six years of dysfunction, division and chaos, and revolving-door prime ministers? Party insiders suggest the critique of Labor policies is having an impact, especially in Queensland. But the Coalition does seem to focusing more on Labor’s policy agenda than their own.
The Liberal Party campaign launch on Sunday morning is the last big opportunity they have to convince voters that they should be rewarded with a third term. The challenge for Morrison is to outline a compelling vision for the future and a detailed policy program for government.
No former Liberal PMs — John Howard, Tony Abbott and Malcolm Turnbull — will be at Morrison’s campaign launch. Shorten corralled Rudd, Julia Gillard and Paul Keating, and Bill Hayden, to be at his campaign launch to demonstrate that Labor is united (even though Rudd and Gillard despise each other). The Liberal focus is on brand Morrison.
All eyes, though, will be on next week’s Newspoll. Keep in mind that the Coalition has not led Labor in any of the major national polls since the last election. If they can draw even, or ahead, that will make for a riveting final week.
One punter is not fazed, though, having wagered $1 million this week that Labor will win the election. Shorten suggested it might be Turnbull.
Free market path to lift Indigenous
Labor has handed its new tsar for Aboriginal business extraordinary powers that could make remote-community residents the owners of defence infrastructure and the funders of energy projects.
Call for origin labels on imported timber
About a quarter of timber tested in Australia last year had incorrect species or origin labels. The industry wants new laws to prevent it happening and to support Australian producers.