Federal election 2019: our verdict on week one of the campaign
Every Friday during the 2019 federal election campaign, Chris Kenny and Troy Bramston will pass their verdict on the week that was. Here’s how our commentators saw the first full week on the hustings.
Kenny: Coalition, voters early victors
Two clear winners have emerged after the first full week of campaigning: Scott Morrison and voters. It is obvious why the Prime Minister has done well — mind you, he needs to win most if not every week of this campaign to be a realistic chance — and I’ll go to those issues in a moment.
But all of the electorate has come out in front because it has become clear this week that the bold and expansive policy alternatives put forward by Labor will come under some level of scrutiny. This is only as it should be, yet it simply did not happen during the last election campaign.
This time, from Bill Shorten caught out glossing over his superannuation tax changes to facing ongoing questions about the cost of his climate and energy policies, there is some interrogation of Labor’s prescription. So whatever voters decide come polling day there is a good chance it will be an informed decision.
There are many more questions to ask and much more detail that should be forthcoming from both major parties but the first week has been encouraging. Perhaps the most important rider on this is that the Greens, One Nation and other minor parties need more scrutiny too.
For Morrison the political dividend has been clear; by focusing Coalition attention on Labor policy he has been able to expose both the risk of Labor’s high taxing agenda and Shorten’s uncertainty and evasiveness in defending and explaining his policies.
This was always the risk for Labor and the hope for the Coalition. Those of us who have long predicted a hard-fought contest in the face of widespread forecasts of an inevitable Labor landslide have done so because of the substance: the Coalition’s policy superiority over Labor’s high-tax, high-risk and big government plans (not to mention their 2007-2013 record).
Labor was always going to struggle when the spotlight fell on a suite of policies that Sir Humphrey would have called “courageous”. Apart from all the tax increases, climate and energy policy will be pivotal.
As part of that, on electric vehicles, Shorten has been flat out wrong on recharging times and on the availability of petrol engines into the future. Not only is his policy implausibly expensive and impractical but he is not across the basics of the argument. It begs the question: what else in his suite of climate measures is poorly considered?
Shorten is left with his battle against cancer, an endless run of announcements where he tries to make health the daily topic but which seems to be based on the assumption voters think the current government and its health system aren’t working or aren’t tackling cancer. Most of the announcements seem welcome but the political pitch rings a little hollow.
Over two terms the Coalition has excelled at burning public trust and therefore starts from a long way back. But if the government keeps a laser-like focus on the weaknesses in Labor’s agenda, without making any major mistakes of its own, anything could happen.
This campaign shapes as being the polar-opposite of the last. It will be aggressive, enlightening, relevant and telling. Whoever wins will have earned it, which is all the better for voters.
Bramston: Week one battle won, what about the war?
The Coalition won the first full week of the campaign.
The problem for the government, though, is that they could win every week but still lose the election. Voters cannot be expected to ignore three years of revolving-door-prime ministers, a government riven with division and a mixed policy record.
The polls continue to show Labor leading on a two-party basis by 52-48 per cent in Newspoll. There is no national poll that shows the Coalition winning the election. Nor do the bookmakers expect a Coalition victory. This may change. But Labor would win an election held now.
Nevertheless, Labor did not have the start to the campaign that they hoped for. While its big-spending cancer package has resonated with voters, and has the often elusive “water cooler conversation” quality, a series of stumbles put Bill Shorten on the back foot.
The Labor leader mistakenly said Labor had no plans to change superannuation. He really meant that he had no plans other than those already announced. The detail of Labor’s changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax was deleted from its website. And Labor still cannot say what precise cost to the economy there will be from its climate change policies.
Labor’s boldness in outlining major policy initiatives well in advance of the campaign was always going to be a risk. This week, after years of trying, Scott Morrison and Josh Frydenberg didn’t miss with their attacks. Shorten, the frontrunner, is under more scrutiny than he was in 2016. But he is an effective campaigner and is not too fazed by this past week.
The Coalition did not have a trouble-free week either. Labor seized on the release of the Pre-Election Fiscal and Economic Outlook (PEFO) to remind voters that the Coalition has delivered six budget deficits, presided over a massive increase in debt and claims it will need to cut $40 billion from the budget to meet its spending promises.
The ghosts of Coalition past were also ever present. Yet again, Malcolm Turnbull was dispatching advice via Twitter. His son, Alex Turnbull, is backing independents to defeat Liberal MPs and candidates. Tony Abbott, again, did not rule out returning to lead the Liberal Party. And George Christensen was dubbed the MP for Manilla for using taxpayer-funded domestic flights to connect him to overseas flights.
The government wants to keep the focus on the economy and budget management, spruiking its promise to return to surplus in 2019-20, and on Labor’s climate change and taxation policies. Labor has continued to talk about its ambitious health and education plans. Both major parties always try to shift the campaign focus to their strengths.
Labor insiders are looking forward to the four-day Easter break, the continuation of school holidays and another lull with Anzac Day next week. This will break the news cycle that has not gone in Labor’s favour and give them time to regroup, reset and recalibrate their campaign. Shorten should not be underestimated — he will learn from this and emerge sharper and more focused.
In the Coalition camp, they fear that the momentum they have built up will now be lost by the public holidays. But with 20-30 per cent of voters casting their ballots early — voting begins in ten days time — they might have turned a few Labor voters back their way. But they’ll need more weeks like this one if they are to keep their slim chances of an upset victory alive.
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