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Federal election 2019: Campaign Day 37: Labor’s postal vote edge

New data from the AEC shows Labor has submitted more ballots than the Coalition in two ultra marginal seats.

Bill Shorten's last photograph with Bob Hawke. Picture: Supplied.
Bill Shorten's last photograph with Bob Hawke. Picture: Supplied.

Hello and welcome to PoliticsNow, The Australian’s live coverage of Day 37 of the federal election campaign.

As Scott Morrison and Bill Shorten make their last election pitches today, Labor is on track to win tomorrow’s election with a small majority, according to a national YouGov/Galaxy poll.

Top stories:

New postal vote data from the Australian Electoral Commission shows Labor has the postal vote edge in the ultra marginal seats of Chisholm and Corangamite in Victoria.

Bill Shorten has cast himself as Bob Hawke’s successor, linking his election agenda to the late PM’s policy successes.

Scott Morrison is in a last ditch blitz of Queensland as he tries to pick up Labor seats and defend vulnerable seats.

Rosie Lewis 4.50pm: Shorten raises a Hawke’s Lager

Bill Shorten has brought his campaign to one of Bob Hawke’s favourite watering holes — the John Curtin Hotel — to toast the former prime minister with a Hawke lager.

In the heart of Melbourne’s union precinct and next door to the Victorian Trades Hall, one of the oldest in Australia, Mr Hawke spent much of his time socialising at the pub when he was a union advocate in the 1960s and ‘70s.

The Opposition Leader himself has been frequenting the hotel for more than 30 years.

Joined by Victorian Labor premier Daniel Andrews and former premier Steve Bracks, Mr Shorten said: “Today’s about his life, his legacy, there was only one, there will only be one Bob Hawke. We gather on the eve of an election with two great Victorian Labor premiers. Who knows (what the result will be) tomorrow night?”

Former Victorian Premier Steve Bracks, Opposition Leader Bill Shorten and Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews having a Hawke's Patio Pale Beer at the John Curtin Hotel in Melbourne to honour Bob Hawke who passed away on Thursday. The pub was one of Hawke’s favourite watering holes. Picture Kym Smith
Former Victorian Premier Steve Bracks, Opposition Leader Bill Shorten and Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews having a Hawke's Patio Pale Beer at the John Curtin Hotel in Melbourne to honour Bob Hawke who passed away on Thursday. The pub was one of Hawke’s favourite watering holes. Picture Kym Smith

Rachel Baxendale 3.40pm: Labor has postal vote edge in key seats

New postal vote data from the Australian Electoral Commission shows Labor has submitted more ballots than the Coalition ahead in the ultra marginal seats of Chisholm and Corangamite in Victoria.

However, the Coalition appears to be running strong campaigns in a number of other key seats — most notably Treasurer Josh Frydenberg’s of Kooyong and Liberal backbencher Michael Sukkar’s of Deakin.

Data updated today gives a breakdown of how many postal votes the AEC has received via the major parties.

The Coalition generally outpolls Labor with postal voters, who often tend to be older.

While postal vote data varies wildly from seat to seat and cannot offer a conclusive indication of who will win, any seat where Labor is significantly ahead will be very difficult for the Coalition to win.

The Coalition also had the advantage of knowing that the election would be called on Thursday May 11, meaning that many voters received postal voting forms from the Coalition the next day, but had to wait until the following Monday or Tuesday to receive them from Labor.

In Chisholm (notionally Liberal 2.9 per cent) in Melbourne’s east, 3632 postal votes have been receive via Labor, compared with just 1950 via the Liberals.

Assistant Social Services, Housing and Disability Services Minister Sarah Henderson’s knife-edge seat of Corangamite (notionally Labor 0.03 per cent), southwest of Geelong, has returned 3435 postal votes via Labor and 3377 via the Liberals.

Conversely Treasurer Josh Frydenberg has evidently been running a formidable postal vote campaign in his eastern Melbourne seat of Kooyong (Liberal 12.8 per cent), with 6493 postal votes received via the Liberals, compared with 78 via Labor. It is unclear from the data available how many may have been returned via Green Julian Burnside or independent Oliver Yates.

Liberal backbencher Michael Sukkar is also doing exceptionally well with postal votes in his eastern Melbourne seat of Deakin (Liberal 6.4 per cent), with 6094 postal votes received via the Liberals, compared with 1990 via Labor.

The postal vote contest is tighter in the bayside Melbourne seat of Goldstein (Liberal 12.7 per cent) which Tim Wilson is expected to retain with a reduced margin, with 2119 postal votes received via Labor and 3490 via the Liberals.

Among seats the Coalition hopes to pick up, Lindsay (Labor 1.1 per cent) in Western Sydney has returned just 120 postal votes via Labor and 2211 via the Liberals, while former Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull’s old eastern Sydney seat of Wentworth (independent 1.0 per cent) has returned 2713 via the Liberals and 945 via “other candidates”, namely independent incumbent Kerryn Phelps.

Indi (independent 5.5 per cent), in northeast Victoria, has returned 1432 via the Liberals and 680 via the Nationals, with just 5 coming from “other candidates”, namely independent Helen Haines.

In the Townsville seat of Herbert (Labor 0.02 per cent), which is 50-50 two-party-preferred according to the most recent Newspoll, the AEC has received 953 votes via the ALP, compared with 2,129 via the Coalition.

Postal voting has not been strong in the Northern Territory seat of Solomon (Labor 6.1 per cent), in the Northern Territory, with 97 votes received via the ALP, three via the CLP, and 26 via the Liberals.

In the NSW seat of Cowper (Nationals 4.5 per cent), where former independent MP Rob Oakeshott is hoping to make a comeback, the Nationals have returned 947 postal votes, with none received from Oakeshott’s camp.

It is a similar story in Farrer (Liberal 20 per cent), where Sussan Ley is facing a tough battle against independent Kevin Mack.

In that seat 2188 votes have been received via the Liberals, and none via Mr Mack.

In Gilmore (Liberal 0.7 per cent) on the NSW South Coast, 2476 votes have been received via the Liberals but just 3 have come via the Nationals and 137 via the ALP.

In the Sydney seat of Reid (Liberal 4.7 per cent) being vacated by Craig Laundy, 1416 postal votes have been received via the Liberals compared with 212 via Labor.

In Robertson, on the NSW central coast it is a similar story, with 117 pre-polls via Labor and 2050 via the Liberals.

In Tony Abbott’s seat of Warringah (Liberal 11 per cent), 1396 postal votes have been sent in via the Liberals, compared with 284 via “others” — most likely his independent rival Zali Steggall.

In the knife-edge eastern Melbourne seat of La Trobe (Liberal 3.2 per cent), 2949 postal votes have come via Labor while 3353 have come via the Liberals.

Speaker Tony Smith’s seat of Yarra Valley seat of Casey (Liberal 4.5 per cent) has similarly strong postal vote numbers from both sides, with 3275 via the Labor and 3709 via the Liberals.

In the affluent inner southeastern Melbourne seat of Higgins (Liberal 7.8 per cent), where there is a three-way contest, 4176 postal votes have been submitted via the Liberals and 1654 via Labor. The figure for the Greens is not clear from the AEC information provided.

In Health Minister Greg Hunt’s Mornington Peninsula seat of Flinders (Liberal 7.0 per cent), 2451 postal votes have been received via Labor, compared with 4677 via the Liberals.

In Flynn (LNP 1.1 per cent) on the central Queensland coast, 530 postal votes have been received via Labor, compared with 3,925 via the Liberals.

In the northern Brisbane seat of Petrie (Liberal 1.7 per cent), 797 postal votes have been received via Labor, compared with 5,535 via the Coalition.

In Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton’s northern Brisbane seat of Dickson (Liberal 1.7 per cent), 752 postal votes have come via Labor, with 5,192 via the Coalition.

In Aged Care Minister Ken Wyatt’s seat of Hasluck in Perth’s northeast (Liberal 2.1 per cent) 191 postal votes have been received via Labor compared with 2902 via the Liberals.

In Attorney-General Christian Porter’s seat of Pearce, north of Perth, (Liberal 3.6 per cent), 71 postal votes have been received via Labor and 3487 via the Liberals.

In Stirling (Liberal 6.1 per cent) in Perth’s inner northwest, 260 postal votes have come via Labor compared with 3586 via the Liberals.

In the outer southeastern Melbourne seat of Dunkley (notionally Labor 1.0 per cent), which the Liberals have all but given up on retaining, 2602 votes postal have been received via Labor compared with 4280 via the Liberals.

In Swan (Liberal 3.6 per cent) in Perth’s south, 148 postal votes have been received via Labor, and 3114 via the Liberals.

In the Tasmanian seat of Braddon (Labor 1.7 per cent) which the Liberals are hopeful of picking up, 850 votes have been received via Labor and 955 via the Liberals.

In neighbouring Bass (Labor 5.4 per cent), 580 postal votes have been received via Labor compared with 1196 via the Liberals.

Joe Kelly 1.30pm: PM takes franking to Flynn

Scott Morrison will visit the key Queensland marginal seat of Flynn — held by LNP MP Ken O’Dowd on a margin of 1 per cent — to speak at a retiree forum where he is certain to sound the alarm on Bill Shorten’s plan to scrap cash refunds on excess franking credits.

The Prime Minister’s decision to take his campaign to Flynn completes a Queensland trifecta with Mr Morrison blitzing the state this morning after beginning his day in the marginal Labor held seat of Herbert before travelling to campaign in the Liberal held seat of Leichhardt.

Richard Ferguson 12.50pm: Mullet tradie endorses PM

A tradie with a simply glorious mullet whom Scott Morrison met on the campaign trail has recorded an online ad for the Liberal Party.

The Prime Minister was taken aback by Bridgenorth Football Club player Jarrad Cirkel’s long, luscious locks when he was campaigning in Launceston, Tasmania, a week ago, and struck a rapport.

Now Mr Cirkel has appeared an online ad being shared on social media, where the blackout does not apply.

To read the article in full, click here.

Sid Maher 12.35pm: Celeb MPs face moment of truth

Josh Frydenberg and Tony Abbott both face challenges in their seats.
Josh Frydenberg and Tony Abbott both face challenges in their seats.

Tony Abbott and Treasurer Josh Frydenberg top a list of celebrity politicians who are facing their moment of truth tomorrow in close battles in what should normally be safe seats.

In Warringah, (NSW) a normally safe Liberal seat that spans areas of Sydney’s lower north shore and northern beaches, Abbott is under siege from independent Zali Steggall whose cause is being championed by GetUp in Warringah.

And while Kooyong, (Vic) in Melbourne’s leafy eastern suburbs, is usually the most blue-ribbon of safe Liberal seats Josh Frydenberg is under assault from the Greens who have preselected human rights lawyer Julian Burnside.

To read the article in full, click here.

Joe Kelly 12.15pm: PM speaks to Blanche

Scott Morrison has spoken to Blanche d’Alpuget to pass on his condolences on the death of her husband.

Richard Ferguson 12.10pm: ‘Bob would want ALP win’

Bill Shorten says Bob Hawke’s widow, Blanche, said her late husband would have wanted an ALP victory tomorrow.

“Blanche said that nothing would make Bob happier than Labor forming a government tomorrow night,” he said in Sydney.

“I think the time for talk about the election is nearly at an end, if it’s not at an end.

“The voters will make their judgment now. I would say to voters — vote for real change. End the chaos. Vote for re-election on the climate. Vote to extend our Medicare to cover dental care of pensioners and cancer patients. And vote for cost-of-living measures for families.

“There’s only one Gough Whitlam. There’s only one Bob Hawke … but I can promise, if you vote for Labor you vote for real change.”

Ben Packham 12.00pm: Morrison still in the fight

Fresh marginal seat polling suggests the Coalition is still in the fight in at least eight crucial swing seats in the eastern states, amid a swing of up to 6 per cent towards Labor in Victoria and the potential loss of the NSW central coast seat of Gilmore to the ALP.

To read the story in full click here.

Richard Ferguson 11.40am: ’Tony’s way of expressing reality’

John Howard has backed Tony Abbott’s controversial tribute to Bob Hawke where he declared the late prime minister had a “Labor heart and a Liberal head.”

“That’s Tony’s way of expressing the reality,” Mr Howard said in Sydney.

“The reality is, he did implement policies that attracted support from the Liberal Party, and it’s one of those reasons why the policies were adopted.

“In sharp contrast — if I may say so — from the experience my government had.

“Whenever we tried to make any reforms to the Australian economy, they were opposed by the Labor Party — I’m not suggesting he would have supported them either, but I’m acknowledging the fact that he was no longer in politics when we implemented those reforms.

“I read Tony’s statement. I thought it was completely unexceptionable. He said Bob

had been a great prime minister.

“And he acknowledged the reforms that he made. I mean, it seems as if there’s a cohort of people in the Australian community at the moment — probably not friends of the Liberal Party — who just want to seize on anything Tony Abbott says and criticise it, irrespective of the merit and the substance involved.”

Richard Ferguson 11.40am: ‘Greatest Labor PM’

John Howard has lauded the late Bob Hawke as the best Labor prime minister Australia has had.

“Bob Hawke was an outstanding Australian prime minister. In my opinion, he’s the greatest prime minister of Australia produced by the Labor Party,” Mr Howard said in Sydney.

“I’ve often acknowledged that, among Labor occupants of that office, Hawke was the best. He was responsible for a significant number of economic and other reforms during the time that he was prime minister.

“He was a staunch union man. He rose to the top of the ACTU. Yet he did not seek to divide the Australian community on phony class lines, as some other Labor figures — certainly in recent times — have endeavoured to do.

“I extend to his widow, Blanche, to his children and grandchildren, the sympathy not only of myself, but of my wife Jeannette.

“And I think I can speak for the broader Australian community in thanking him for his contribution to public life and the impact he made on Australian politics, and the extraordinary contribution he made to the success of the Labor Party that he led for such a very long time — a feature of the leadership of the Labor Party was that he exercised great authority.”

Richard Ferguson 11.35am: Shorten visits Blanche

Bill Shorten has paid a visit to Bob Hawke’s widow, Blanche d’Alpuget, at her Sydney home to pay his respects.

“I’ve had such a lovely catch-up with Blanche. She’s a very strong person. You can see why her and Bob had such great love,” he said outside the Hawke family home.

“Bob Hawke was a great man. He’s a legend. You know, I feel for his family, his children, his extended family … Bob had a great life. And I think he knew that a lot of people really loved him.

“When I saw him last Monday, or Monday a week ago, he was in sparkling form. So I feel sad that he’s gone. I feel lucky that I knew him. And I’m gonna say some more words, I think, a bit later.”

Richard Ferguson 11.15am: PM in last ditch QLD blitz

Scott Morrison has made a last-ditch sweep through North Queensland as he tries to pick up Labor seats like Herbert and defend vulnerable seats such as Leichhardt.

The Prime Minister started the morning in Townsville, in Herbert, where Labor holds the seat by only 37 votes and a recent YouGov/Galaxy poll shows the major parties are deadlocked at 50/50.

While the contest is tight, both sides have felt for weeks that it will ultimately fall to LNP candidate and army veteran Phillip Thompson

He is now in Cairns, in Leichhardt, where LNP MP Warren Entsch is facing a stronger than expected Labor campaign.

“To manage money well, to ensure we stay in surplus, and that we pay down the debt to ensure that we invest at record levels and continue to do that in hospitals and schools and roads, that we create 1.25 million new jobs — one in five of those being for young people. 250,000 new businesses, and to keep Australians safe and secure,” Mr Morrison said in Cairns.

“All of that hinges on Warren Entsch being returned as my candidate here, LNP candidate, in Leichhardt, as the people of North Queensland have been doing now for many elections.

“And I tell you what, Warren never disappoints. When I have come up here over the years, Warren, even before I went into politics, we’ve known each other.

“And everyone on North Queensland knows that Warren is someone who fights for them. Warren is someone whose aspiration is to support the aspirations of Australians and his local community.”

Labor strategists have told The Australian they are increasingly confident of taking Leichhardt tomorrow, despite other seats in Queensland on lower margins slipping from their grip.

Liberal strategists feel North Queensland seats such as Dawson and Capricornia are more likely to stay with the Coalition because of the popularity of Adani.

Richard Ferguson 11.05am: Abbott dodges tribute questions

Tony Abbott has refused to answer questions over his tribute to Bob Hawke, in which he said the late Labor leader had a “Liberal head” and took a dig at the ALP’s current policy agenda.

“He was a wonderful prime minister. And he is rightly mourned by everyone today,” he told ABC News.

“Look, as I said, he was a really good prime minister. I think he was the best Labor prime minister ever … He was the best Labor prime minister ever. And the challenge for all of us is to be worthy of the greats of the past. And that’s what I certainly hope to do.”

Rosie Lewis 10.43am: Shorten to pay tribute at Opera House

Bill Shorten is headed to the Sydney Opera House, where he will pay tribute to Bob Hawke. We’re told people have laid flowers there. Hawke launched a number of his campaigns at Sydney’s most famous building

Sascha O’Sullivan 10.41am: PM secures endorsements

Less than 24 hours before the polls open, the nation’s media have published their election editorials canvassing the Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s steady hand and Opposition leader Bill Shorten’s “progressive” agenda. The resounding advice to voters from across the editorials is to do the research.

The Australian has endorsed Mr Morrison, but not without first giving the Coalition a critical review of the last four years.

“Mr Morrison is pragmatic and a good communicator … but the serial chaos within the Coalition, including with the Nationals, has been a deadweight on it’s support,” The Australian wrote.

To read the article in full, click here.

Richard Ferguson 10.40am: Pre-polling over 4m

Pre-polling has now reached 4.05m, after 533,000 were cast yesterday. this compares with a total of 2.55m at the same stage of the 2016 election.

Richard Ferguson 10.30am: Poll ‘not about my future’

Scott Morrison has refused to say if he will stay on as an MP or seek the leadership of the Opposition if he loses tomorrow.

“This election is not about my future. It’s about yours,” he said in Cairns today.

“It’s about everybody who’s watching. This election is about your aspirations, the aspiration of the families and couples and the individuals we’ve met here, who are trying everything they can to get ahead in life. And so that’s what my focus is on.

“The personalities of the politics and the politicians, that’s not what this election is about. It’s not about Canberra, it’s about Cairns. It’s not about Canberra, where politicians meet, unless you live in Canberra. Then, sure.”

Richard Ferguson 10.25am: PM hits out at Labor minority government

Scott Morrison has hit out at the possibility of a Labor minority government, and says it would show Bill Shorten would still not have the trust of Australians even if he ends up prime minister.

“I see Labor is talking about minority governments now. That’s certainly not what they were talking about before Bill Shorten thought he was embarking on a coronation tour during this campaign,” he told ABC News.

“What that does mean is Bill Shorten would not have been able to have convinced Australians about what he has been saying, which is that his view is that Australians should be taxed more so he can spend more. And I don’t believe Australians see that as the right choice, particularly as we’re facing real, significant challenges in front of us, with the global economy, the tensions between China and the United States, for trade in our region.”

Meanwhile, the AEC has tweeted the most interesting ballot boxes of the world Istanbul wins for the best view but Antarctica is also pretty impressive.

10.15am: Ardern tweets tribute

Jacinda Ardern has tweeted a tribute to Bob Hawke as she travels from Europe back to New Zealand. “On my way home to NZ and heard the news that former Aussie PM, Bob Hawke, has passed away. I never had a chance to meet Bob, but it was easy to feel like you knew him. He was such a charismatic figure and one clearly driven by his love of people. Rest In Peace, Bob” she wrote.

Joe Kelly 9.40am: PM spruiks home buyers plan

Scott Morrison has taken his campaign to the Liberal held seat of Leichhardt in North Queensland after campaigning earlier this morning in the electorate of Herbert in Townsville where he had a coffee with local candidate Phillip Thompson.

The Prime Minister also used his time in Herbert to conduct a blitz of media interviews to fine tune his pitch to voters one day before they cast their ballots.

The Prime Minister will continue to promote his new $500 million first home buyers deposit scheme in Leichhardt and meet with people who are saving for their first home. He will be accompanied by well local member Warren Entsch on what is shaping as a busy final day on the campaign trail.

Richard Ferguson 9.25am: Tanya’s tears for Bob

Labor deputy leader Tanya Plibersek has broken into tears as she pays tribute to Bob Hawke and says the late prime minister had urged her to go out and win tomorrow’s election.

“I feel really sad and I think a lot of Australians feel really sad because they have a great deal of affection for Bob Hawke,” she told ABC News this morning.

“I knew Bob pretty well, he was incredibly generous with his time. We used to have lunch occasionally and he would talk about his time in government. It was great to be able to ask him how he dealt with some of the challenges that they faced.

When asked what effect Hawke’s death will have on the election, Ms Plibersek’s voice broke and she said she wanted to go out and win for him.

“I just don’t even want to think in those terms. We are mourning a great Australian,” she said.

“I know and he said that he wants us to go out and win. So it’s what I’m going to try to do for the rest of the day.”

Richard Ferguson 9.15am: Daughter Sue pays tribute

Sue Pieters-Hawke. Picture: Supplied
Sue Pieters-Hawke. Picture: Supplied

Sue Pieters-Hawke, the daughter of the late Bob Hawke, has paid tribute to her late father and says her greatest inheritance from her was his commitment to fairness.

Ms Pieters-Hawke is one of four children the late prime minister had with his first wife, the late Hazel Hawke. His daughter said while “parenting was not his strong suit”, Hawke was “fabulous and inspiring.”

“Parenting was not his strong suit — put it like that, he was enormously pleased and relieved that our mother was such an extraordinary parent, because he had deficits on that front,” she told ABC News this morning.

“But in some of the parenting, I think he was a fabulous and inspiring dad, because … Well, you know, you absorb so many of your values from your parents.

“And Dad was never too busy to explain the meaning of a complicated word he used. ‘What’s that mean, Dad?’ Would lead to a long discussion. And also to explain concepts.

“I remember having the whole of the arbitration system and the justice of, you know, capital and labour and decent wages and everything explained to me when I was about eight, using a box of Corn Flakes as an example.

“I suppose why I’m bothering to speak about him today, is because, for me, this does really throw into such sharp relief the choices we have to make about who do we want to be. And reignite my pride in the principles that drove my dad around that question.”

Ms Pieters-Hawke also paid tribute to her stepmother, Blanche d’Alpuget, who cared for her father in his later years.

“I want to point out and acknowledge the devotion and the love and the care that Blanche has shown my dad, especially in this last period of him being unwell,” she said.

Ms Pieters-Hawke and Ms d’Alpuget have had a tumultuous relationship over the years. Hawke’s widow famously slapped his daughter at Brisbane Airport in 2011 during a dispute, and the police were called.

Richard Ferguson 8.05am: PM: Abbott’s ‘tribute’ not words I’d use

Scott Morrison has distanced himself from Tony Abbott’s controversial tribute to Bob Hawke, as Bill Shorten and social media ridicule the former prime minister’s declaration that the late Hawke had a “Labor heart and a Liberal head.”

Mr Abbott’s tribute late last night to Hawke tried to tie the late Labor leader’s legacy to the Liberal Party and even hit out at the current policy direction of his old party.

“His key achievements — financial deregulation, tariffs cuts, and the beginnings of privatisation — went against the Labor grain, as Labor’s more recent policy direction shows,” Mr Abbott said in a statement.

“You might almost say he had a Labor heart, but a Liberal head.

“Certainly, the Coalition supported nearly all of his big reforms, helping to make his tenure a time of economic revitalisation.”

Mr Abbott was condemned and disparaged by Labor figures, journalists and others on social media over his comments …

The Prime Minister said he hoped Mr Abbott was not seeking to be partisan and said he interpreted his comments as an attempt to express Hawke’s breadth of mind policy-wise.

“Well, they’re not words I obviously used. I think everyone was seeking to be generous about that,” he told ABC News.

“I mean, a Liberal saying that, I would hope, would not seek to be partisan. I think it was more about the broad spectrum of views he was able to embrace, and how all Australians from either the Liberal or Labor side were able to appreciate what he was about.

“And that’s certainly how I choose to look at that.”

Meanwhile, Bill Shorten laughed off Mr Abbott’s comments and said Mr Hawke had a “Labor heart and a Labor mind.”

“Today I’m not going to try and bag the other crew too much. I suspect Tony Abbott’s a man under pressure,” Mr Shorten told ABC News.

“Bob Hawke had a Labor head and a Labor heart. And I don’t think, I know Bob, so I don’t think he would have paid too much attention to what Tony Abbott said, to be honest.”

In an apparent attempt to make amends for his statement, Mr Abbott later tweeted a picture of himself with Mr Hawke, saying: “He had the capacity to reach out to everyone across party lines. He was a great Australian. Margie and I extend our deepest sympathies to Blanche and his family.”

Rosie Lewis 7.55am: Shorten switches states

The Shorten camp has had a change of campaigning plans after Bob Hawke’s death. Bill Shorten was meant to start the last full day of campaigning in Brisbane but instead the media pack is heading back to Sydney to meet up with the Opposition Leader. Stay tuned.

Richard Ferguson 7.45am: Leaders blitz Queensland

Scott Morrison and Bill Shorten will make their last, frenzied election pitches in Queensland today as the death of Bob Hawke overshadows the end of the campaign.

The Prime Minister and the Opposition Leader blitzed the airwaves today to hammer their key lines on morning television, as two new polls show Labor just ahead nationally.

Both the YouGov/Galaxy poll in News Corp papers and the Ipsos poll in Nine Entertainment’s newspapers show Labor at 51 per cent to the Coalition 49 per cent in two-party-preferred stakes — which would leave Labor with a wafer-thin majority if replicated on election night.

Mr Morrison said this morning in Townsville that no-one would have predicted he would be in such a competitive position five weeks ago.

“I think no-one can call this election, and certainly no-one was saying that five weeks ago, let alone five months ago. And this election will be close, and every Australian’s vote will matter,” he told ABC News.

“Every Australian’s choice will matter. And that is exactly as it should be. Because this election is about their future. What I’ve been saying to Australians, as Prime Minister, as their Prime Minister, is to say I want to back your aspirations in, your vision, your goals.

“Whether it’s to save to buy for your first home and pay less tax on that, which my Government has delivered. Or whether it’s to save for your retirement to be independent, and we won’t be hitting them with higher taxes, as Labor will also. I want to back in Australians’ aspirations right across their life.”

Mr Morrison will spend the last day on the offensive in the Labor-held seat of Herbert, the most marginal seat in the country.

Mr Shorten had planned to head to the hotly contested suburbs of Brisbane, where he hopes to pick up seats like Petrie, Forde, and Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton’s electorate of Dickson. But he will now start the morning in Sydney after Mr Hawke’s death.

“It’s time for a change. We don’t want three more years of the last six years,” he told the Seven Network.

“Vote for change to stop the chaos, vote for change to stop the chaos, vote for change to take real climate and action. Vote for change to get the childcare bills down and get wages moving.

“Vote for change for money to be put back into hospitals and schools. Vote for change because we are united, stable team seeking your vote. We won’t let you down.”

Richard Ferguson 7.40am: Shorten casts himself as Hawke’s successor

Bob Hawke and Bill Shorten met shortly before Mr Hawke died. Picture; AAP.
Bob Hawke and Bill Shorten met shortly before Mr Hawke died. Picture; AAP.

Bill Shorten has cast himself as the successor to his mentor Bob Hawke this morning, linking his election agenda as a continuation of the late prime minister’s policy successes.

One of Hawke’s last acts was to publish an open letter advocating for the Opposition Leader’s campaign and a week before, he appeared with his old rival Paul Keating to endorse Mr Shorten’s policy agenda.

Mr Shorten today said his policies on Medicare, the environment, and tax reforms had Hawke’s backing and were a natural progression in his 1980s reform agenda.

“I really think since Hawke and Keating, my team is outlining the biggest vision,” Mr Shorten told the Seven Network.

“We want to make transformational changes on climate change. Bob Hawke wouldn’t have time to deal with our nitpicking, he would have said just bloody do it.

“What we want to do is to take the intergenerational scam out of taxation, Hawke and Keating were big backers of what I and Chris Bowen are proposing.

“Hawke always believed in education, he introduced four-year-old primary education we can introduce three-year-old education.

“They introduced Medicare, my team is the first since then to make the big step transformation of Medicare to include dental care for pensioners, which has been neglected for three million Australian pensioners, and were going to use cancer care so that getting sick doesn’t mean you get poor.

“We are the inheritors of this tradition, I think it is a great loss for Australia that Bob Hawke, the great Australian leader, is gone.

“But what I can do for him in a tradition is do everything I can to win tomorrow, from Medicare to environment to transforming the economy. We have the party with the big picture.”

Richard Ferguson 7.30am: ‘Heaven forbid Palmer has balance of power’

Bill Shorten has refused to say whether he would negotiate with crossbenchers to get into minority government if tomorrow’s election results in a hung parliament.

“Heaven forbid that Clive Palmer or some of that gang have the balance of power. Let’s cross

that bridge when we get to it after Saturday,” he told the Nine Network.

“I would recommend a vote for Labor in the House and the Senate. I don’t think Australians want a minority parliament. I know that Labor is planning on getting — we’re going for gold.

“20 of the last 60 years the government hasn’t controlled the House of Reps, hasn’t controlled the Senate. So absolutely. We will negotiate with people.

“But I have to say, that let’s just what Australians want after six years is an end to the chaos.

“Let’s stop talking about us losing. I’m focused on winning.”

Richard Ferguson 7.22am: ‘Lucky to have last talk’

Bill Shorten says he felt “very lucky” to have a final conversation with Bob Hawke and that he does not want to let his late mentor down in tomorrow’s election.

“Death happens. But sometimes in life people pass and you don’t get a chance to say what you think or have that last conversation,” he told the Nine Network.

“I feel, on Monday, I was lucky enough to have a conversation that I really would wanted to have had. I got his blessing. We had the warmth. We had the talk. And I feel I’m very lucky and had an experience very few Australians, or no Australian, will be able to have in the future now.

“So I feel very lucky to have been in his orbit and in his world.

“Bob was generous in his last remarks to me and he said we were doing really well an he was very proud of me.

“I already feel a responsibility to millions of people to win. But sure, I want to do it for Bob as well tomorrow. But, you know, yeah, I don’t want to let his memory down. I think a lot of Labor people will feel the same way.”

Richard Ferguson 7.20am: Labor on track to win

Labor is on track to win tomorrow’s election with a small majority, according to a national YouGov/Galaxy poll.

Bill Shorten’s Opposition is ahead 51 per cent to Scott Morrison’s Coalition on 49 per cent — a similar result seen in the latest Newspoll, Ipsos and Essential polls this week.

The Coalition’s primary vote has jumped two points to 39 per cent since the last national Galaxy poll, while Labor’s sits at 37 per cent.

The last time the Coalition won with such a low primary was John Howard’s 1998 victory on 39.5 per cent.

A uniform swing based on this poll would see Bill Shorten just fall over the line with a one to five seat majority.

Rosie Lewis 7.15am: ‘I couldn't find the right words’

Bill Shorten’s office has released a new photo capturing the final goodbye between the Opposition Leader and Bob Hawke on May 6.

Mr Shorten visited his “hero” Mr Hawke at his home in the midst of the federal election, the day after the former prime minister was unable to attend Labor’s campaign launch due to his health.

Labor MPs, including Mr Shorten, had hoped Mr Hawke would be able to hold on until tomorrow’s election.

Mr Shorten last night led tributes for “a favourite son”.

“When I visited Bob last week, I tried to tell him what he meant to all of us. I couldn’t quite find the right words,” Mr Shorten tweeted this morning.

“But Bob knew. He knew what he meant to Australia, he knew what he had achieved for the country. He knew he was loved, right to the end.”

What’s making news:

Bob Hawke’s death:

Paul Kelly obituary: Australia’s longest-serving Labor PM was the stuff of folklore, but his legacy was real and enormous.

Hawke biographer Troy Bramston’s tribute: There has never been a politician like Bob Hawke. His rise was powered by a sense of destiny.

Election news:

Bill Shorten has intensified his attack on retirees, property investors, and big business on the eve of the election, as both sides warned of a tightening contest.

Labor’s campaign over investors buying their ‘30th property’ has been vastly overstated with 90 per cent of Australians who negatively gear owning no more than two properties.

The Coalition has delivered on its pledge to run a low-spending campaign, with just $1.4bn in new spending over four years.

Home loan king and self-made millionaire Mark Bouris has ­entered the election housing battle.

Catholic school authorities are ratcheting up a campaign against the Greens in key electorates.

Dennis Shanahan writes: The PM moved to head off Bill Shorten’s call of ‘It’s Time’ by declaring now ‘is not the time for change’.

Graham Richardson writes: the end of election campaigning can’t come soon enough for some of us.

Read related topics:Bill ShortenScott Morrison

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Original URL: https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/federal-election-2019-campaign-day-37-labor-on-track-to-win/news-story/93f9810838956d60bdca44fb20bb1d15