Federal election 2019: Campaign Day 36: Final pitches from PM, Shorten
Panned by the PM for seeking a “coronation”, Bill Shorten warned “chaos is not the way forward” in his final campaign speech in Sydney.
- Shorten echoes Whitlam
- Must-win Forde 50/50
- Shorten ‘seeks coronation’
- LNP ahead in key marginal
- Alex Turnbull in GetUp robocall
- AFR comes out for LNP
Hello and welcome to PoliticsNow, The Australian’s live commentary on Day 36 of the federal election campaign.
Top stories:
In Blacktown’s Bowman Hall — the same place Gough Whitlam made his famed “It’s Time” speech in 1972 — Labor leader Bill Shorten is made his final campaign speech.
At the start of his address to Canberra’s National Press Club Scott Morrison hit out at Bill Shorten for avoiding the forum.
Seat polls released this morning are showing good news for both Scott Morrison and Bill Shorten. We will be seeing new seat polls every hour.
Adrian McMurray 7.40pm: Dutton poised to retain Dickson — just
Peter Dutton is on track to reclaim his Queensland seat, despite a drop in the Liberals’ primary vote in Dickson, according to the latest YouGov/Galaxy poll.
The poll points to the Home Affairs Minister retaining his seat 51-49 on a two-party preferred basis, helped by preferences from One Nation and Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party.
It could go right down to the wire however, with Labor’s Ali France set to push the incumbent all the way, with a 3.7 per cent swing against Mr Dutton, his primary vote dropping to 41 per cent compared to the final figure of 44.7 per cent at the last election.
UAP look set to take 9 per cent of the vote, One Nation 3 per cent.
Joe Kelly 7.29pm: PM hits Longman
Scott Morrison has taken his campaign to Queensland where he has unveiled $500,000 in funding for an indoor cricket training centre in the marginal seat of Longman, held on a margin of 0.8 per cent by Labor’s Susan Lamb.
The visit shows the Coalition is confident of picking up the seat with Mr Morrison meeting with the LNP candidate Terry Young at the Caboolture Sports Centre where he talked with young players at the end of their training session.
The event was gatecrashed by union members who were advocating for a change of government to secure an overhaul of industrial relations rules.
The protestors bearing placards lined both sides of the road as the Prime Minister left the venue. “Change the government. Change the rules,” they protesters shouted.
Adrian McMurray 6.10pm: Libs set to hold on in Deakin
Michael Sukkar looks set to hold onto his seat in Melbourne’s east, despite a swing against the Coalition, according to the latest YouGov/Galaxy poll.
The incumbent still holds a narrow lead 51-49 on a two-party-preferred basis, with the Coalition’s primary vote falling by six per cent according to the poll, Labor’s Shireen Morris making ground.
The seat, which includes the suburbs of Mitcham, Vermont, Vermont South, Ringwood, Heathmont, Croydon and Bayswater North, is held by Mr Sukkar by a margin of 6.5 per cent.
Heidi Han 5.05pm: WeChat chat backfire
Dozens of Chinese Australians have complained that they were barred from participating in a WeChat live chat sessions with Labor deputy leader Tanya Plibersek and Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews.
They were allegedly removed from the group in the hours before the event even as the organiser was still trying to populate the group by inviting more people.
According to multiple screenshots presented to the Australian, at least 13 Chinese Australians were removed from the group, which was set up to encourage potential voters chatting with the Shadow Education Minister, scheduled to start at 6pm Thursday.
Many of them alleged that they were banned by a WeChat ID called Labor’s WeChat session facilitator, even before they said anything; one was seen being removed after sharing links about Safe School program in the group.
These furious Chinese Australians allege that they were excluded because Labor “does not allow different voices”, and question the real identity of the so-called WeChat facilitator who exclude them from participating democracy on behalf of the Labor.
One alleged that no answer was given when he challenged the facilitator why he was removed from the chat, questioning “are you Labor or the Communist?”
After similar allegations were made after the first of Labor’s WeChat Live series, Mr Shorten’s Q&A session in late March, the so-called WeChat live facilitator denied they are staff from Mr Shorten’s office and told The Australian, he/she was a “highly intelligent robot”.
The Australian has sought answers from the facilitator.
Richard Ferguson 4.40pm: Labor to snatch Gilmore from Mundine: poll
Labor look set to snatch the south coast NSW seat of Gilmore, according to the latest YouGov/Galaxy poll.
The ALP’s Fiona Phillips is on 52 per cent to high-profile Liberal Warren Mundine on 48 per cent, in a seven per cent swing to the opposition.
The Liberals has seen a massive 19 per cent crash in their primary vote to 26 per cent as the Nationals’ Katrina Hodgkinson, on a 17 per cent primary, makes it a three-cornered contest.
Labor’s primary vote is only up 0.8 per cent to 40.
Richard Ferguson 4.10pm: Most marginal seat too close to call: poll
The most marginal seat in the country, Herbert, is still too close to call with a 50/50 result according the latest YouGov/Galaxy seat polls.
Herbert, won by Labor’s Cathy O’Toole by just 37 votes last election, is now 50/50 on two-party-preferred between Ms O’Toole and the LNP’s Philip Thompson.
On primary votes, the LNP and Labor are also very close on 32 per cent and 31 per cent respectively.
Many strategists on both sides believe Herbert will fall to the Coalition, but the continuing tightness in the seat may buoy Labor’s hopes.
Dennis Shanahan 3.40pm: Shorten’s appeal to Gough’s faithful
Bill Shorten has sought to re-energise Labor’s election campaign with all the razzmatazz and emotional appeal to the ALP faithful, spectacularly linking to Gough Whitlam and reinforcing his “big target and crash or crash through” agenda.
Riffing on Whitlam’s historically successful “It’s Time” theme the Opposition Leader reached back 47 years to 1972 and asked “the women and men of Australia to vote for change”, writes Dennis Shanahan.
Richard Ferguson 3.15pm: Jobs figures confirm “under-utilisation”: Bowen
Opposition treasury spokesman says the rise in unemployment figures today shows the “under-utilisation” of Australians looking for a job and the need for Labor’s wage rise policies.
“The main thing out of today’s job figures is it confirms significant under-utilisation in the job market. We have 1.8 million Australians either wanting more work or wanting work in total,” he says.
“This comes on top of the wages figures which continue to be disappointing.
“I heard Scott Morrison in the National Press Club before I went to our speech saying that wages growth is coming or, indeed, wages growth is already here, like mission accomplished.
“Well, Australians know that we need to do more on wages growth and they know that only Bill Shorten and Labor has a plan to do it.
“They know that only Bill Shorten and Labor has the Australian investment guarantee to get investment going and jobs going and growth going.”
Richard Ferguson 3.10pm: Bowen on Rwandan resettlement
Opposition treasury spokesman Chris Bowen says an incoming Labor government would seek urgent briefings on reports two Rwandans accused of murder were resettled via the US-Australia refugee swap deal.
“To be honest, I have seen social media reports. That is the full extent of my knowledge,” he said in Sydney.
“Obviously, this needs to be thoroughly explained by the government and if there is a change of government I would expect a new government to seek urgent briefings on the situation and to get a full update and to see whether the situation has been handled promptly.
“I think responsibly, just to finish, I think responsibly, that is the most we can say, given all we are aware of is basically what you are aware of.”
Richard Ferguson 3.05pm: Higgins to stay Lib: poll
The Liberals are set to hold on to the blue-ribbon Victorian seat of Higgins according to the YouGov/Galaxy poll.
Liberal candidate Katie Allen is just ahead on 52 per cent to the Greens’ Jason Ball on 48 per cent.
But the poll shows a significant swing of 5.4 per cent away from the Liberals in a seat that has been held by two Liberal prime ministers and a Liberal treasurer.
On primary votes, the Greens are ahead of Labor by 28 per cent to 18 per cent respectively in the three cornered contest. The Liberal primary vote has fallen by six per cent to 45.
Rosie Lewis 2.50pm: Shorten closes on “courage and principles”
Bill Shorten wraps it up.
“I say to the women and men of Australia vote Labor because we are the only party with the courage and the principles and the plan to take real action on climate action,” he says.
“My fellow Australians, the door to a better, bolder and more equal future stands ajar. Do we have the capacity to push through it? The chance for a smarter, more progressive Australia is before us. The choice for Australia to be a leader in the world is ours to make. And the power is in your hands.”
The crowd echoes Bill Shorten as he declares “vote for change, vote Labor.”
And with that, the 25 minute speech comes to an end.
One of the few times I’ve heard Bill Shorten mention an Australian republic in this campaign yet this could be one of the biggest issues in the next parliamentary term if Labor wins as it is committed to holding a plebiscite #auspol #ausvotes #blacktown
— Troy Bramston (@TroyBramston) May 16, 2019
Rosie Lewis 2.45pm: Republic gets a run
As Bill Shorten outlines why people should vote Labor, a Republic gets a mention. It hasn’t exactly been a hot issue in this election campaign.
“Because after 250 years of borrowing a monarch from the other side of the world, it’s time for an Australian head of state,” he says.
Rosie Lewis 2.40pm: Chaos not the way forward: Shorten
Bill Shorten picks up Scott Morrison’s declaration that it’s not time to turn back.
He responds to the Prime Minister with: “I say cuts to schools and hospitals are not the way forward. “Wage stagnation and job insecurity are not the way forward. Unfairness and growing inequality are not the way forward. Extremism and racism are not the way forward.
Chaos and division are not the way forward. And denial and delay on climate change is not the way forward.”
.@billshortenmp: Vote Labor because we are the only party with the courage and the principles and the plan to take real action on climate change.
— Sky News Australia (@SkyNewsAust) May 16, 2019
MORE: https://t.co/DOkPkKjeYk #ausvotes pic.twitter.com/IrgbsjuXBL
Rosie Lewis 2.37pm: Shorten opens up on Palmer
There are cries of “shame” as Bill Shorten attacks Clive Palmer, the “billionaire who spends ten times what he owes his workers promoting himself” and who has done a preference deal with the Liberal Party.
Rosie Lewis 2.35pm: Wage increase “first priority”: Shorten
Bill Shorten outlines some of his priorities if he wins the May 18 election.
“If you vote Labor, we’ll deliver the change the nation deserves, from day one. The very first item of business at our very first cabinet meeting will be a new Commonwealth submission to the Fair Work Commission, for a real wage increase for the working people of Australia,” he says.
“The first laws we will seek to pass will be the restoration of Sunday penalty rates and tax cuts for 10 million working and middle class people in this country. And we will convene parliament to prioritise real action on climate change, expanding the Clean Energy Finance Corporation, to help drive 50 per cent renewable energy in our system.”
Rosie Lewis 2.30pm: No more delay on climate change: Shorten
The “delay and denial on climate change” — a central pillar of Labor’s election pitch — is mentioned.
“Climate change is threatening our environment, our economy and our children’s future. The problems facing our nation are real — and they are growing. But we are not despondent, we do not preach despair.
“We know Australia can solve these problems. And friends we can start on May the 18th.”
Rosie Lewis 2.25pm: “Door to future stands ajar”
Bill Shorten says Australia faces a “choice between the past and the future”.
“The nation’s door to the future stands ajar. And we ask the men and women of Australia to vote for change,” he says.
“On May the 18th, we ask you to vote for new ideas, for new equality of opportunity. We ask the women and men of Australia to vote for new purpose and new energy in a new decade.
“And we ask you to vote for the new vision, the new stability and the new determination of a new Labor government.”
"Men and women of Australia" - Gough Whitlam 1972
— Alice Workman (@workmanalice) May 16, 2019
"Women and men of Australia" - Bill Shorten 2019
Rosie Lewis 2.22pm: Shorten echoes Whitlam
Bill Shorten opens his final campaign speech: “Forty-seven years ago, when an earlier Labor generation filled this hall with their hope and their passion, the door was ajar for our nation. And Australians had to choose,” he says.
“Would we hide from change? Would we turn our backs on the world? Would we shrink into our familiar habits and submit to our old fears? Or would we cross the threshold, would we push open the door?
“Would we broaden the sweep of our ambition, would we reach for something bigger and bolder than more of the same? Would we step forward into a more confident, more modern, more self-reliant future?
“This was the choice then — and this is the choice this week and this year and now.”
Dennis Shanahan 2.21pm: PM calls time on Shorten
Scott Morrison has ended his formal 2019 election campaign much as he started appealing for trust, offering hope for “decent, working” Australians and offering detailed support for his argument that good economic management is the answer for reducing debt and deficit while offering more services, writes Dennis Shanahan.
Rosie Lewis 2.20pm: “We are nearly there”: Plibersek
Tanya Plibersek talks to the “true believers one and all”. “We are nearly there, we are so close … And now we are gathering here in this special place for Labor, the scene of so much hope and inspiration for one final sprint to the finish line,” the deputy Labor leader says.
In the hours we have left, all we can ask for you to do is dig deep, to knock on that extra door, to have that extra conversation, to make that final phone call. When your voice is hoarse and your feet are sore and it’s getting dark and cold on Friday night, summon up that energy for one last effort.”
Ms Plibersek asks who they want to celebrate on Saturday night. “Will it be the big banks and tax dodgers, or teachers and nurses? “Will it be the people who want a refund on tax they haven’t paid, or pensioners who need dental care?”
And on it goes. She asks who they want to govern the country: “the worn out, run down, backward looking pushers of division or the next generation with a vision for the future.
“This is the change we want to see, this is the change Australians should vote for,” she says as she introduces Bill Shorten.
Richard Ferguson 2.10pm: Libs set to hold Reid: poll
Scott Morrison looks set to hold onto the must-win Sydney seat of Reid according to the latest YouGov/Galaxy poll, despite a more than 2 per cent swing.
Liberal candidate Fiona Martin is ahead by 52 per cent to Labor candidate Sam Crosby’s 48 per cent.
The Liberals’ primary vote has fallen to 44 per cent, a swing of 4.8 per cent since the last election, while Labor has also suffered a swing against it — now at 36 per cent, which is 0.3 per cent lower than in 2016.
Labor’s hope of a comfortable win will be hit if this poll reflects the result on election night as Reid has been their number one Liberal target in NSW.
Richard Ferguson 2.05pm: Coalition’s “frugal” costings
Finance Minister Mathias Cormann says the government’s election promises will only amount to $1.4 billion in extra spending if they are elected and there will be an improvement to the surplus, as the Coalition releases its policy costings.
“Our costings show we have been very frugal with our election commitments in this campaign. $1.4 billion in additional expenditure on election commitments under the Coalition,” he said in Melbourne today.
“Which, of course, stands in stark contrast with Labor’s $35 billion spending spree over the same period.
“All of our spending commitments during this election campaign have been more than paid for with a $1.5 billion reduction in expenditure.
“Our costings show that as a result of more than paying for our election commitments with real savings, that the budget bottom line will improve slightly to $45.1 billion in cumulative surpluses over the forward estimates’ period.”
Rosie Lewis 1.55pm: Rowdy reception
Tanya Plibersek, Penny Wong and Chloe Shorten have arrived at the Bowman Hall to a standing ovation. There are Labor members here who were in the hall for Gough Whitlam’s 1972 “It’s Time” speech. Going on the noise of the audience, it’s going to be a loud occasion. There are more than a dozen Labor supporters here who were in the hall in 1972. They are asked to stand for applause.
Ready for Blacktown. pic.twitter.com/MIT8qYn7E8
— Senator Penny Wong (@SenatorWong) May 16, 2019
Richard Ferguson 1.37pm: Morrison noncommittal on Abbott
Scott Morrison has refused to say whether he would bring Tony Abbott back to cabinet, using it as a final pitch to Australian voters.
“This election isn’t about individuals, it’s not about my future, it’s not about any other politicians’ future,” he told the National Press Club.
“It’s not about the personality game which is I know fascinates people in Canberra. It’s about the Australians I was talking about before. It’s about their future, about the choices I want them to have.
“I will burn for you everyday, every single day, so you can achieve your ambitions, your aspirations, your desires. That is what’s at the top of my agenda. I’m for you, I’m asking you to vote for me.”
Richard Ferguson 1.35pm: PM defends Rwandan refugees deal
Scott Morrison has sought to defend Australia’s immigration and intelligence services after US media reports that two Rwandans accused of murder were resettled in Australia as part of a controversial refugee swap deal struck between the US and Australia.
“Every single person that comes to Australia, under any such arrangements — are the subject of both character and security assessments by Australian security agencies and our immigration authorities.
“Now, I don’t intend to make a commentary on allegations that have been made in open source information. But simply to assure Australians that they are the processes that we undertake and these are the same security agencies that have thwarted 15 terrorist attacks.
“Allegations, I know, have been made out there in the public forum. But what I can assure Australians of is this — our government will always ensure that those character and national security considerations are undertaken for anyone who seeks to enter this country.
Budget tree, or maybe election tree #auspol pic.twitter.com/ks6oSQVPWx
— Ben Packham (@bennpackham) May 15, 2019
Richard Ferguson 1.30pm: Why PM didn’t vote for same-sex marriage
Scott Morrison has defended his decision not to vote for same-sex marriage in parliament after the postal survey returned a Yes result, saying he kept his promise not to stand in the bill’s way.
“Same-sex marriage is not an issue at this election. It is, thankfully and pleasingly — resolved two years ago. I was part of the government that ensured it was resolved. And to follow a process that ensured that it would resolved,” he told the National Press Club.
“I would certainly remind you that the previous Labor government didn’t do that. Those who said they were for the change actually voted against it in the chamber. Labor members in the Senate and the House — indeed the Prime Minister — Labor Prime Minister at the time — voted against that change.
“What we did is ensured that when this change was made that it was done in a way that all Australians understood that this was the will of the Australian people and I think that was the best way for that change to be made.
“And I wasn’t going to stand in the way of that change. If that, indeed, was the will of the Australian people. And I didn’t. I was true to my word on that. I will always be true to my word on these things. I will always be consistent. “
Richard Ferguson 1.15pm: Must win Forde 50/50
The must-win Queensland seat of Forde is 50/50, according to the latest YouGov/Galaxy poll.
The south-east Queensland seat, held by the LNP’s Bert Van Manen on just 0.6 per cent, has been considered a top target for Labor if it wants to take government.
Mr Van Manen is at 50 per cent compared to Labor’s Des Hardman’s same 50 per cent.
The LNP’s primary vote in Forde has grown 1.4 per cent, to 42 per cent, since the last election, as has Labor’s primary by 3.4 per cent to 41.
To read all the seat polls, click here.
Richard Ferguson 1.10pm: PM defends not voting for SSM
Scott Morrison has defended his decision not to vote for same-sex marriage in parliament after the postal survey returned a Yes result, saying he kept his promise not to stand in the bill’s way.
“Same-sex marriage is not an issue at this election. It is, thankfully and pleasingly — resolved two years ago. I was part of the government that ensured it was resolved. And to follow a process that ensured that it would resolved,” he told the National Press Club.
“I would certainly remind you that the previous Labor government didn’t do that. Those who said they were for the change actually voted against it in the chamber. Labor members in the Senate and the House — indeed the Prime Minister — Labor Prime Minister at the time — voted against that change.
“What we did is ensured that when this change was made that it was done in a way that all Australians understood that this was the will of the Australian people and I think that was the best way for that change to be made.
“And I wasn’t going to stand in the way of that change. If that, indeed, was the will of the Australian people. And I didn’t. I was true to my word on that. I will always be true to my word on these things. I will always will consistent. “
Richard Ferguson 1.05pm: PM defends Hunt after robocalls
Scott Morrison has leapt to the defence of Health Minister Greg Hunt after he was targeted by anti-Coalition robocalls from Malcolm Turnbull’s son, Alex.
Mr Morrison brushed aside questions about both the young Mr Turnbull and whether the former prime minister has helped or hindered his campaign.
“Neither of those issues are things I intended to be distracted by,” he told the National Press Club.
“What I’m focused on — and you raise the issue of those robocalls — they are going into the electorate of Flinders where Greg Hunt has served as that member for many years.
“He’s served his community well and tirelessly. This is the Health Minister which we read — I think it’s the economic intelligence unit today which has said that Australia is the best prepared to deal with cancer in the world today.
“Greg Hunt’s the Health Minister. That’s something to vote for in Flinders.
“So, my recommendation for those receiving those calls is to hang up, reflect, and vote for Greg Hunt in Flinders, because he’s someone who can rely on.”
.@ScottMorrisonMP: Australians don’t spend every waking second thinking about politics, but that doesn’t mean they take this decision less seriously than anyone else. They expect those who form governments to get on and do the job.
— Sky News Australia (@SkyNewsAust) May 16, 2019
MORE: https://t.co/pUCAfPweXk #npc pic.twitter.com/k6KhQhVn5s
Richard Ferguson 12.45pm: Libs’ line ball call
The ultra-marginal Melbourne seat of La Trobe is line ball, according to the latest YouGov/Galaxy seat poll, as the Liberals try to hold against a statewide swing.
For all the seat polls as they come out, click here.
Richard Ferguson 12.35pm: Shorten ‘seeks coronation’
Scott Morrison has hit out at Bill Shorten for not delivering an address to Canberra’s National Press Club and accuses the Opposition Leader of seeking a “coronation.”
“This is an important tradition and part of our electoral process here in Australia that, the leaders of both parties — major parties — going into an election present themselves before the National Press Club,” the Prime Minister says.
“It’s part of the process. It’s part of what Australians, I think, expect for our leaders to come and submit themselves to our dear friends in the media here in Canberra before the election. It’s about accountability. It’s about submitting yourself to scrutiny. It’s about showing respect for the electoral process and the decision that Australians will make, importantly, this weekend.
“Election campaigns are not coronation tours. As some seem to think.
“There is an event happening in Sydney where I understand that is much more the tone of that event. Very much focused on a self congratulatory process in a party hoopla-style event.
“That isn’t what’s happening here today. What’s happening here today is part of the discipline of our electoral process in this country.
“My advice is that it’s been a long time since Leader of the Opposition has not presented themselves here for such an address. You have to go back to John Hewson in 1993.”
Mr Morrison has also received criticism for avoiding high-rating political interview programs like the ABC’s Q&A and Insiders programs.
.@ScottMorrisonMP: There’s a hoopla-style event happening in Sydney today very much focused on a self-congratulatory process. It’s been a very long time since a leader of the Opposition has not presented themselves here for such an address.
— Sky News Australia (@SkyNewsAust) May 16, 2019
MORE: https://t.co/pUCAfPweXk #npc pic.twitter.com/yQ1LOXLEsi
Robert Gottliebsen 12.25pm: Poll down to two issues
As we go to the polls two issues will decide the election — the retirement and pensioners tax (RPT) and the dramatic rise in community apprehension about climate.
As a result of RPT — levied via a ban on cash franking credits — a staggering 1.1 million elderly Australians are set to lose on average $4000 each year. It’s money few of them can afford.
Add that to higher capital gains taxes and negative gearing and anger in the older age groups of our community is white hot. And when I comment on the subject the reader response is huge.
But the reader response is just as big when I discuss climate change.
To read the article in full, click here.
Richard Ferguson 12.05pm: Vic Lib seat in line ball call
The ultra-marginal Melbourne seat of La Trobe is line ball, according to the latest YouGov/Galaxy seat poll, as the Liberals try to hold against a statewide swing.
Incumbent government MP Jason Wood, who holds La Trobe by 3.2 per cent, and Labor challenger Simon Curtis are on 50 per cent each on two-party preferred.
La Trobe is among a group of six Victorian seats Labor is heavily targeting and hopes will lead them to majority government.
While Labor’s primary vote in the seat is up 6.9 per cent to 39, Mr Wood has only had a primary swing of 1.1 per cent against him in the south-eastern outer suburbs on Melbourne.
11.55am: Jobless rate in surprise rise
Australia’s unemployment rate rose in April, despite a strong gain in employment, bringing closer the first interest rate cut in three years.
The unemployment rate rose to an unexpected 5.2 per cent in April as more people were looking for work, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said. The bureau also revised March’s unemployment rate up to 5.1 per cent from 5.0 per cent. To read the article in full, click here.
Dow Jones
Sid Maher 11.30am: Qld quagmire spooks ALP
The one certainty about Queensland in this election is its uncertainty. Political pundits will likely still be talking about it well into next week and possibly the week after trying to work out key results.
Queensland is the home of a swag of marginal seats, which if the 2016 election is any guide, will come down to a handful of postal votes which will decide the outcome.
To read the article in full, click here.
Troy Bramston 11.25am: ‘I know I can do this’
In the early morning hours, Bill Shorten runs. He runs through parks and alongside rivers, through city streets and suburbs, and often with staff, fellow MPs and community leaders.
Shorten has been running his entire life. He has been running for prime minister since he was a teenager. As he runs, he sometimes allows a moment of reflection on the journey that has brought him to this threshold moment, with the prime ministership in reach.
“I’ve been interested in politics since my teenage years,” Shorten, 52, tells The Australian in an exclusive interview. “Politics was always discussed around the family dinner table. So at some point in my late teens, I thought I’d like to be prime minister.
“But when did I think I could be prime minister? That was probably the defeat of the Labor government in 2013. I thought I could actually do the job. I could do the job of uniting Labor. I could do the job of putting the policy together and getting the best out of our team.”
To read Troy’s interview in full, click here.
Sascha O’Sullivan 11.20am: Labor fights for coal
Labor has embarked on a full-throated embrace of coal in key seats in central Queensland as it fights for Coalition-held seats of Capricornia and Flynn and attempts to hold off a Liberal party onslaught in Herbert.
Labor candidate for Capricornia Russell Robertson proclaims himself a “third generation miner” and his campaign posters around the electorate boast of his mining credentials.
To read the article in full, click here.
Richard Ferguson 11.12am: Labor win likely in key NSW seat
Labor looks set to hold the Blue Mountains seat of Macquarie with a swing towards the opposition, a YouGov/Galaxy poll says.
Incumbent opposition MP Susan Templeman is ahead 53 per cent to 47 per cent for the Liberals’ Sarah Richards; a swing of 0.8 per cent to Ms Templeman.
Macquarie had been mentioned early in the campaign as a possible gain for the Liberals, along with neighbouring seat Lindsay.
Rosie Lewis 11.11am Shorten back in Reid
The inner-west Sydney electorate of Reid will be a must-watch seat on Saturday night, with both major parties agreeing whoever wins will form government.
Bill Shorten made his fifth visit to the seat today — his most visited electorate of the election campaign — and was embraced by a small section of the Chinese community as he made pork and chive dumplings at Xibay Little Lamb restaurant in Burwood.
Labor’s candidate Sam Crosby predicted the result on election night would be 51-49 “whoever wins” and will spend the next 48 hours on pre-poll to try and convince voters to back a change.
The seat is held by the Liberals on 4.7 per cent but the senior Coalition partner lost its incumbency factor when former MP Craig Laundy, a Turnbull loyalist and popular local member, announced he would not contest the election.
“If you win in Reid you’ll win in government,” Mr Crosby told The Australian.
“You can’t take anything for granted in this electorate.”
Jack He and wife Qing Chen spoke to the Opposition Leader after having dumplings at Xibay Little Lamb restaurant and encouraged Mr Shorten to make China his first international visit if he becomes prime minister.
Mr He has voted Labor ever since he moved to Australia 22 years ago and criticised Scott Morrison for calling his home country a “customer”.
“It’s not customer, no good. We are co-operation, we are friend,” he said.
“Shorten is for people, services for people. Chinese people support Labor Party. He (Mr Shorten) supports multicultural, he look after old man, seniors people.”
Mr Crosby said constituents had raised Labor’s policy to abolish cash refunds for excess franking credits and acknowledged a number of people in the electorate would be affected.
“We just need to be honest with them and explain to them what the policy is, because there’s a fair bit of fake news and misinformation about what the policy is. When you explain it to people, some people are never going to be happy with us, that’s okay, that’s life,” he said.
“At least we’re being open and honest with the Australian public and we’re not trying to do what Tony Abbott did six years ago which is sneak into government on a policy of saying there’s no changes, no cuts, no nothing and then get into power and your first budget cut everything and go back on all your promises.”
Mr Crosby nominated services not keeping pace with development as the No 1 issue.
Leaving the seat after a visit that lasted less than half an hour, Mr Shorten turned to Mr Crosby and said: “Bring it home brother.”
Alice Workman 10.35am: ALP’s celeb volunteer
Labor has recruited a celebrity volunteer to campaign in the blue ribbon Liberal seat of Higgins, which Liberal sources fear could fall on Saturday.
Mary Gaudron, the first female justice of the High Court, was making phone calls to voters in Higgins on Wednesday night for Labor’s candidate Fiona McLeod.
“It’s not every day a High Court judge stops by your phone bank,” Ms McLeod wrote on social media.
“Thanks Mary, and thanks for inspiring my journey in the law and for justice.”
The recruitment of Ms Gaudron is a big coup for Labor. The 76-year-old trailblazer was tasked with convincing voters to back Ms McLeod, a high profile barrister dubbed a “rock star” candidate by Bill Shorten.
Ms Gaudron was one of 34 former judges who signed an open letter, urging Prime Minister Scott Morrison to support the creation of a National Integrity Commission.
The Coalition hold Higgins on a margin of 7.4 per cent but the recent department of frontbencher Kelly O’Dwyer has put the seat back in play.
Ms O’Dwyer has voiced robocalls encouraging locals to support the Liberal’s candidate Dr Katie Allen.
The battleground campaign has turned nasty in recent days, with Ms McLeod’s campaign material was vandalised with Nazi symbols earlier this week.
Richard Ferguson 10.20am: LNP’s surprise result
The LNP are on track to win the ultra marginal Queensland seat of Flynn, according to a new YouGov/Galaxy seat poll.
Conservative MP Ken O’Dowd is ahead at 53 per cent to Labor candidate Zac Beers’ 47 per cent according to the Galaxy poll, in a two per cent swing to Mr O’Dowd from the 2016 election.
Labor has held out hopes for Flynn throughout the campaign, despite receding from other key north Queensland seats like Capricornia.
YouGov/Galaxy will be releasing more key seat polls throughout the day.
Niki Savva 9.55am: Win would elevate Morrison to legend
If Scott Morrison wins on Saturday, he will become a modern-day hero of the Liberal Party, even though at critical times during this campaign its existence has been denied and chunks of its history erased.
Several Liberal backbenchers have rebranded themselves; others have dropped the brand altogether. Often candidates find electoral success is best assured by putting space between them and the leader, or them and whichever party they belong to.
What is highly unusual, in this highly unusual campaign, is for the leader to distance himself from his own party. You needed binoculars to see the Liberal logo on the giant screen behind the Prime Minister at Sunday’s launch, and a GPS to find former leaders, deputies or stars of previous administrations. John Howard has crisscrossed the country tirelessly campaigning with candidates, yet still couldn’t score a seat at the main event.
To read the article in full, click here.
Daniel Sankey 9.40am: Hanson hits back at Today
One Nation leader Pauline Hanson was at her fiery best on Nine’s Today this morning, responding to a question about One Nation’s voter appeal by slamming the breakfast show’s dismal ratings.
“Of all the things you have faced, all the scandals that’s been going on, can you blame people for having their doubts about One Nation and considering Clive [Palmer] over you?” Today host Deb Knight asked.
Senator Hanson didn’t miss a beat.
“I’ve actually gone up since the last election, unlike your show, Deb, since you’ve actually taken over, you’ve actually gone down in viewership,” she said.
“Should you hand over your job or should we bring Karl [Stefanovic] back? You know, you have a go about me about this all the time about going down in the polls. The people will have their say. You don’t say in the NSW election we actually won two seats in the upper house [when] the polls had us at one or two per cent prior to the election — we pulled seven per cent.”
Rosie Lewis 9.25am: Shorten returns to Reid
Bill Shorten will do a street-walk through Burwood shops in the Sydney seat of Reid, making it his second visit to the marginal Liberal-held seat in the final week of the campaign.
Labor is running high-profile candidate Sam Crosby, the executive director of the McKell Institute.
Rachel Baxendale 9.15am: Alex Turnbull in GetUp robocall
Malcolm Turnbull’s son Alex Turnbull has teamed up with left wing activist group GetUp to record messages urging voters in key Victorian seats not to vote Liberal in Saturday’s federal election.
In Liberal backbencher Kevin Andrews’s eastern Melbourne seat of Menzies, voters will be played a radio clip of Alex Turnbull saying the Coalition is in chaos and doesn’t deserve anyone’s vote.
In Health Minister Greg Hunt’s Mornington Peninsula seat of Flinders, a recorded message will be sent to 17,000 voters, featuring Alex Turnbull saying, “we need more people who want action on climate change. This election don’t give the Libs your vote.”
To read the article in full, click here
Richard Ferguson 9.10am: AFR comes out for LNP
The Australian Financial Review has urged for its readers to vote, albeit reluctantly, for the Coalition on Saturday due to its pro-growth economic policies.
The Nine-owned paper praised Labor’s unity but said continuing trade union influence and its tax policies such as negative gearing reforms make it “unfit to govern.”
“For all its faults, and without great enthusiasm, the Financial Review believes that a returned Coalition government with a clear parliamentary majority would be in Australia’s best interests,” the AFR’s editorial reads today.
“The Coalition does at least grasp that Australia needs a growth policy in order to lift incomes and sustainably pay for the services government provides. The notable exception is any credible stance on energy and climate change.
“Mr Shorten has led a tighter team, united by the prospect of power. He has grown in the job as Opposition Leader over the past six years.
“But the party remains structurally unfit to govern. A web of factional power and patronage gives the union movement an institutional power, no longer reflected in the real world, over one of the big parties of government.
“And Mr Shorten and shadow treasurer Chris Bowen have made a big bet on funding their promises by closing tax concessions. Some of these are arguable, but they will also be hitting savers and small investors first; and Labor priority is getting their hands on the loot — nobody should fool themselves otherwise.”
First of the newspaper editorials is in: the @FinancialReview has gone for the Coalition. pic.twitter.com/kRxQ8N90JD
— Caroline Overington (@overingtonc) May 15, 2019
Joe Kelly 9.05am: PM: I want Aussies to achieve
Scott Morrison told Triple M radio in Melbourne that he had enjoyed the final week of the campaign and meeting young people looking to enter the housing market.
“This is why we do what we do in politics. Because we want to help people realise their aspirations,” he said. “That’s really what I’m saying to the Australian people at this election.
“I want you to achieve what you want to achieve and I want to back you in.
“I’m choosing you.”
Mr Morrison said Mr Shorten was saying: “Give us all your money and I’ll solve all your problems.”
He argued Labor’s high taxing agenda would harm the economy and that it was the wrong time to change government.
Taking aim at Clive Palmer’s massive advertising spend, Mr Morrison said it was a “free country” but urged voters to think about the Coalition’s agenda when they were in the polling booth.
He said the government had boosted funding for health and education because of its sound economic management.
Mr Morrison also deflected questions about whether he would stay on as Opposition Leader if the Coalition lost the election, arguing the issue was about who would win the election.
Adrian McMurray 9.00am: Sportsbet pay out on Labor win
Punters who backed Labor with Sportsbet received a nice surprise this morning, with the betting agency paying out on an ALP victory at Saturday’s election. Seven of every 10 bets they’ve taken were placed on a Bill Shorten win, with one punter collecting over $128,000.
Rival agency Ladbrokes, meanwhile, won’t be as keen to pay out early given one individual has $1 million on Labor.
EARLY PAYOUT! LABOR WIN...
— Sportsbet.com.au (@sportsbetcomau) May 15, 2019
We’ve paid out early on Labor to win the Federal Election. #ausvotes19 pic.twitter.com/2hdpV8SPDl
Rosie Lewis 8.45am: Shorten spills on hangovers, marijuana
In a game of “yea or nay” on KIIS FM radio in Melbourne the man who wants to become prime minister has been asked “when was the last time you were hungover”.
Bill Shorten also said he was only for marijuana in medicinal circumstances and didn’t have time to watch Married At First Sight.
Asked what he watched at the end of the day, the Opposition Leader said: “Bit of the news, bit of Insiders on iView. No, Netflix mate, Netflix.”
Here are his answers:
Aldi special buys — Nay.
I’ve been to Aldi but I shop at my local independent greengrocers where I can, that’s the correct answer.
Vegans — Yea.
No (I’m not a vegan) but one of my kids is so that’s good.
Be a vegan but just leave the rest of us to eat our meat and certainly don’t pick up on the farmers.
I like a good eye fillet. Just because a Liberal eats it doesn’t mean the rest of us are not allowed to eat it.
Reality TV — Nay.
Marijuana — Medicinally. It’s all about the medicinal.
Hangovers — What does that mean?
‘When was the last time you were hungover Bill?’
It does depend how much you’ve consumed in order to have a three-day hangover. I don’t recall having a three-day hangover.
‘When was the last time you had a few?’
I can’t remember, I certainly would’ve. Maybe after the last (leaders’) debate, I don’t know.
Nicknames — Nay.
‘What’s your nickname Bill?’
Bill, as for the rest of them they’re not worth printing.
‘What do you get called at home?’
Do you know what time it is? … Because I’ve been working so much.
School pick-up — Yea.
‘If you become PM, do you rock up with the motorcade?’
I don’t know because I haven’t been PM but in the case of one of them that would be excessive because I live a few doors from the school.
Joe Kelly 8.25am: PM pitches to small business
Scott Morrison has toured the Sydney Markets in the key electorate of Reid to refine his pitch to small business owners and used FM radio interviews to argue the days of Liberal leadership instability are gone.
The government must win the seat of Reid, which has been vacated by popular Liberal MP Craig Laundy, if it is to maximise its chances of pulling off an unlikely victory on Saturday.
The government holds the seat on a margin of 4.7 per cent, but it is under threat from Labor’s candidate Sam Crosby who is running a strong campaign.
The Prime Minister received a warm reception from business owners when he arrived at 5:50 this morning, with zucchini flower grower Marie Vella — a strong Liberal Party supporter — saying she was impressed by Mr Morrison’s campaign.
“I think he can understand the hard working Australian who has put the hard work in for their family, made sacrifices for their families. It’s an early morning (start) and early hours,” she said. “For me, what I want in life is to be a self funded retiree. I don’t want to worry about going on the pension.
“You’ve got Shorten who feels like he wants to dip into my retirement fund.”
But Ms Veller conceded that she was concerned by the instability in the party, arguing the Liberals had damaged themselves by changing prime ministers. “I think a kindergarten probably behaves a bit better than what they do sometimes,” Ms Veller said.
Not everyone was convinced by Mr Morrison’s message.
Eighty-one year old Ralph Sawyer — who runs a business to supplement his income in retirement — acknowledged that Mr Morrison was a “good vigorous campaigner” who “left Turnbull for dead”.
But he told The Australian he would probably be voting for Labor.
“He (Morrison) is orientated to successful people. And he doesn’t seem to think much about people who are on wages. Not all of us can be successful businessman,” Mr Sawyer said. “Like many people, I’ve lived too long. I don’t have enough money to live on. And so I sell fruit and veg.”
Christopher Lum, a 53-year-old wholesaler, said he thought Mr Morrison should win but argued voters had been “hoodwinked” by Mr Shorten’s campaign.
“I think he’s a good Prime Minister,” he said. “On the economy he’s dong a good job. On infrastructure he’s doing a good job.”
Mr Morrison used FM radio interviews later in the morning to say the days of leadership instability were over.
“I’ve been able to bring the party together and get the discipline in place,” Mr Morrison told Triple M’s “Hot Breakfast” which broadcasts in Melbourne. “All that nonsense in the past, changing leaders and all that, it hasn’t been a good thing.”
Speaking on WSFM radio in Sydney, he conceded the campaign had been a “bit nasty at times” but said the election was a choice between himself and Bill Shorten.
“The choice they are making is whether they are going to change the government or not,” he said. “There a big consequences to change.”
Richard Ferguson 8.21: Joyce slams Molan
Former Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce says Liberal NSW senator Jim Molan’s vote-below-the-line campaign to stay in parliament will stop National Perin Davey from being elected and is calling the Coalition agreement into question.
“I’ve got no problems with their number four candidate but if they wanted their number four candidate to be their number one candidate, they should have gone to the senate preselection and voted for him to be number one,” Mr Joyce told ABC radio this morning.
“If there is a campaign where we want number one, number two, and then we we’re going to have number four beat number three, Perin Davey; you’re going to have ashes in your mouth.
“We have an order, we have a process as part of an agreement. If you don’t abide by a key tenant of the agreement, then it calls into question the strength of the agreement.”
Senator Molan has campaigned hard to remain in the senate since he was relegated to the unwinnable fourth spot in the Coalition’s NSW senate ticket.
Mr Joyce said today his campaign meant he had no choice but to campaign for Ms Davey, also in a difficult spot on the ticket, to protect the Nationals’ level of representation.
“We have to make the National Party … which has a senator from NSW since Federation, we have to make that legacy is maintained. We have an excellent candidate in Perin Davey.
“We have to do this. We have to make the community aware of it because now that’s there’s the sense of a fracture of the vote, we have to go in and fight for our candidate.”
Rosie Lewis 8.20am: ‘It’s down to the line’
Bill Shorten has opened an FM radio interview by declaring: “I’m feeling a mounting sense of excitement, it’s all come down to the line now and we’ve got a good message for change.”
KIIS FM Melbourne host Jase even told the Opposition Leader he could imagine Mr Shorten as prime minister now, saying he’d hit a switch.
“That’s very generous of you. Our team’s united, we’ve been thinking about what we should do. Being the government of Australia isn’t an end in itself, it’s what we can do for the people,” Mr Shorten said.
The Melbourne dad shared a shopping tip — that if you show an employee at First Choice a cheaper price at Dan Murphy’s, they’ll match it — and spoke of his youngest daughter Clementine cutting off the bottom of a full toothpaste tube after being told you got more out of it.
“Not until it’s empty, honey.”
Richard Ferguson 8.05am: PM ‘plans to hang on Palmer’
Labor senator Kristina Keneally says a hung parliament would result in a “Morrison-Palmer government” and that is the Liberal Party’s only path to victory.
“If we are going to a hung parliament, it will be a Morrison-Palmer government, and is going to continue the chaos,” she told ABC radio this morning.
“That is Scott Morrison’s path to victory, that’s his plan, it’s all he’s got left.
“His plan is to hang on Clive Palmer and hope for a hung parliament.”
Senator Keneally would not answer whether Labor would seek the support of independents at all if forced into a hung parliament.
While Labor remains ahead in the polls and the betting markets, there are a large swath of marginal seats which are considered too close to call by both sides.
At least five potential independents have told The Australian they would back Mr Morrison’s government in the event of a hung parliament, compared to one independent and one Greens MP for Labor.
Others like Rob Oakeshott, Rebekha Sharkie and Kerryn Phelps have not made their position on who they would back to form minority government clear.
Richard Ferguson 7.01am: Shorten leads in final stretch
Polls released this morning will give Bill Shorten some hope in this final stretch of the campaign, with one showing him with a national lead and another showing a big swing in a key Victorian seat.
The Guardian’s Essential poll has Labor ahead nationally on a two-party preferred basis of 51.5 per cent to the Coalition’s 48.5 per cent. Primaries are up for both major parties with the Coalition at 38.5 per cent and Labor at 36.2 per cent.
If there was a uniform national swing — which is very rare — based on these numbers, Labor could win up to eight seats for a parliamentary majority of 80.
Meanwhile, a YouGov-Galaxy poll in the seat of Deakin shows the Liberals just ahead at 51 per cent to Labor’s 49 per cent.
The southeast Melbourne electorate — held by Liberal MP Michael Sukkar on 6.1 per cent — is a Labor target but has been considered a “best-case scenario” win by most analysts.
While Labor is still behind on this poll, the margin of error and the 5.4 per cent swing in the Galaxy poll shows Deakin is still in play and. if the swing is statewide. that five Victorian Liberal seats are vulnerable to Labor.
Joe Kelly 7.00am: PM on hustings in Reid
Scott Morrison has had an early start by heading out to the Sydney Markets to meet with small business owners in the vital seat of Reid with only two days left before polling day.
The Liberal candidate Fiona Martin is in a tough fight to hold the electorate from Labor’s Sam Crosby following the decision of popular local member Craig Laundy — a Malcolm Turnbull loyalist — not to recontest the seat.
What’s making news
Scott Morrison will deliver his final pitch to Australians today offering a commitment to aspiration, home ownership, low taxes and personal liberty while warning voters against surrendering control of their lives and their wallets to Canberra under a radical Labor experiment.
Chris Bowen has told new homeowners they should not worry if the equity in their homes falls into negative territory.
A second report surfaces, accusing ex-Lib Julia Banks of mistreating her 2016 campaign volunteers.
Housing has emerged as a hot-button issue in the last days of the election campaign.
Damning footage has emerged of a Greens candidate hurling expletive-laden insults at Catholic students at the height of the same-sex marriage debate.
Police are interested in talking to far-left activists in a probe into offensive posters placed around Abbott’s electorate.
Bill Shorten has indicated Labor would consider offering a diplomatic post to Julie Bishop if he wins on Saturday, including potentially the plum job of ambassador to the US.
Niki Savva writes: If Scott Morrison wins he will become a modern-day hero of the Liberal Party, even if he has distanced himself from it.
Paul Kelly writes: Religious freedom is the missing element in this election yet it is a pivotal issue.
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