Federal election 2019: seat by seat poll results show latest trends

New polling in the most marginal seat in the country is still too close to call.

Federal Opposition Leader Bill Shorten and Prime Minister Scott Morrison. Picture: AAP

Federal election 2019: YouGov/Galaxy is releasing more key seat polls throughout the day. The seat data is revealed below.

Dutton poised to retain Dickson — just

Peter Dutton is on track to reclaim his Queensland seat, despite a drop in the Liberals’ primary vote in Dickson, according to the latest YouGov/Galaxy poll.

The poll points to the Home Affairs Minister retaining his seat 51-49 on a two-party preferred basis, helped by preferences from One Nation and Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party.

It could go right down to the wire however, with Labor’s Ali France set to push the incumbent all the way, with a 3.7 per cent swing against Mr Dutton, his primary vote dropping to 41 per cent compared to the final figure of 44.7 per cent at the last election.

UAP look set to take 9 per cent of the vote, One Nation 3 per cent.

Libs to hold on in Deakin

Michael Sukkar looks set to hold onto his seat in Melbourne’s east, despite a swing against the Coalition, according to the latest YouGov/Galaxy poll.

The incumbent still holds a narrow lead 51-49 on a two-party-preferred basis, with the Coalition’s primary vote falling by six per cent according to the poll, Labor’s Shireen Morris making ground.

The seat, which includes the suburbs of Mitcham, Vermont, Vermont South, Ringwood, Heathmont, Croydon and Bayswater North, is held by Mr Sukkar by a margin of 6.5 per cent.

Gilmore in play for Labor

Labor look set to snatch the South Coast NSW seat of Gilmore, according to the latest YouGov/Galaxy poll.

The ALP’s Fiona Phillips is on 52 per cent to high-profile Liberal Warren Mundine on 48 per cent, in a seven per cent swing to the opposition.

The Liberals has seen a massive 19 per cent crash in their primary vote to 26 per cent as the Nationals’ Katrina Hodgkinson, on a 17 per cent primary, makes it a three-cornered contest.

Labor’s primary vote is only up 0.8 per cent to 40.

Cliffhanger result looms

The most marginal seat in the country, Herbert, is still too close to call with a 50/50 result according the latest YouGov/Galaxy seat poll.

Herbert, won by Labor’s Cathy O’Toole by just 37 votes last election, is now 50/50 on two-party-preferred between Ms O’Toole and the LNP’s Philip Thompson.

On primary votes, the LNP and Labor are also very close on 32 per cent and 31 per cent respectively.

Many strategists on both sides believe Herbert will fall to the Coalition, but the continuing tightness in the seat may buoy Labor’s hopes.

Margin tightens in Libs heartland

The Liberals are set to hold on to the blue-ribbon Victorian seat of Higgins according to the YouGov/Galaxy poll.

Liberal candidate Katie Allen is just ahead on 52 per cent to the Greens’ Jason Ball on 48 per cent.

But the poll shows a significant swing of 5.4 per cent away from the Liberals in a seat that has been held by two Liberal prime ministers and a Liberal treasurer.

On primary votes, the Greens are ahead of Labor by 28 per cent to 18 per cent respectively in the three cornered contest. The Liberal primary vote has fallen by six per cent to 45.

Swing on but seat won’t move

Scott Morrison looks set to hold onto the must-win Sydney seat of Reid according to the latest YouGov/Galaxy poll, despite a more than 2 per cent swing.

Liberal candidate Fiona Martin is ahead by 52 per cent to Labor candidate Sam Crosby’s 48 per cent.

The Liberals’ primary vote has fallen to 44 per cent, a swing of 4.8 per cent since the last election, while Labor has also suffered a swing against it — now at 36 per cent, which is 0.3 per cent lower than in 2016.

Labor’s hope of a comfortable win will be hit if this poll reflects the result on election night as Reid has been their number one Liberal target in NSW.

LNP, Labor can’t be separated

The must-win Queensland seat of Forde is 50/50, according to the latest YouGov/Galaxy poll.

The southeast Queensland seat, held by the LNP’s Bert van Manen on just 0.6 per cent, has been considered a top target for Labor if it wants to take government.

Mr Van Manen is at 50 per cent, the same percentage as Labor Party candidate Des Hardman.

The LNP’s primary vote in Forde has grown by 1.4 per cent, to 42 per cent, since the last election.

Labor’s primary has also lifted by 3.4 per cent, to 41 per cent.

Victorian Lib seat a lineball call

The ultra-marginal Melbourne seat of La Trobe is line ball, according to the latest YouGov/Galaxy seat poll, as the Liberals try to hold against a statewide swing.

Incumbent government MP Jason Wood, who holds La Trobe by 3.2 per cent, and Labor challenger Simon Curtis are on 50 per cent each on two-party preferred.

La Trobe is among a group of six Victorian seats Labor is heavily targeting and hopes will lead them to majority government.

While Labor’s primary vote in the seat is up 6.9 per cent to 39, Mr Wood has only had a primary swing of 1.1 per cent against him in the southeastern outer suburbs on Melbourne.

Labor win likely in key NSW seat

Labor looks set to hold the Blue Mountains seat of Macquarie with a swing towards the opposition, a YouGov/Galaxy poll says.

Incumbent opposition MP Susan Templeman is ahead 53 per cent to 47 per cent for the Liberals’ Sarah Richards; a swing of 0.8 per cent to Ms Templeman.

Macquarie had been mentioned early in the campaign as a possible gain for the Liberals, along with neighbouring seat Lindsay.

LNP’s surprise result

The LNP are on track to win the ultra marginal Queensland seat of Flynn, according to a new YouGov/Galaxy seat poll.

Conservative MP Ken O’Dowd is ahead at 53 per cent to Labor candidate Zac Beers’ 47 per cent according to the Galaxy poll, in a two per cent swing to Mr O’Dowd from the 2016 election.

Labor has held out hopes for Flynn throughout the election campaign, despite receding from other key north Queensland seats such as Capricornia.