Federal election 2019: handful of votes could sway results in Qld

Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party will play a crucial role in Queensland. Picture: AAP

The one certainty about Queensland in this election is its uncertainty. Political pundits will likely still be talking about it well into next week and possibly the week after trying to work out key results.

Queensland is the home of a swag of marginal seats, which if the 2016 election is any guide, will come down to a handful of postal votes which will decide the outcome.

It is the home of Pauline Hanson, Clive Palmer and don’t forget Bob Katter. As if the maze wasn’t already difficult enough, the Greens matter is key seats too.

Putting aside their political peculiarities, each of these four minor party forces will command sizeable chunks of the primary vote in key marginal seats, making the campaign a street by street, booth-by-booth dogfight to pick up every last preference.

This underlines the significance of the Coalition’s deal with Palmer for United Australia Party preferences and why Labor is so ropeable.

At a very minimum, eight Queensland seats are in play in this election.

Herbert, won by just 37 votes by Labor’s Cathy O’Toole in 2016, appears to be the Coalition’s best chance of a win in Queensland.

This time O’Toole is up against the LNP’s Philip Thompson. UAP has picked legendary Queensland State of Origin prop Greg Dowling. With Katter a force too, this seat will come down to a complicated preference play.

Labor’s best chances appear to be Flynn and Forde.

Flynn, in central Queensland, was won by Ken O’Dowd, by 1 per cent at the last election. But he is up against Labor’s energetic candidate Zac Beers. and insiders say O’Dowd has a fight on his hands despite published polling showing him with a comfortable lead.

Forde, based around Logan City, south of Brisbane, was won at the last election by Bert van Manen by 0.6 per cent. Van Manen saw off Peter Beattie, the former Queensland Labor premier in 2013, but the ALP’s Des Hardman has a big chance this time.

Longman, based around Caboolture to the north of Brisbane, appears to have come into play in the past week and the Liberals and Labor are throwing resources at it.

Longman was won at the last election by 0.8 per cent by Susan Lamb. She improved her lead at last year’s citizenship by-election to 4.45 per cent — in the process fatally wounding Malcolm Turnbull’s prime ministership. But the tide is reportedly in the Coalition’s favour as election day approaches.

Capricornia, the other central Queensland seat won by the LNP by just 0.6 per cent in 2016, will again come down to the wire. The LNP’s Michelle Landry is seen as a strong local candidate but the ALP’s Russell Robinson has moved into full pro-coal mode to try to oust her.

Elsewhere in Queensland, Peter Dutton faces a tough battle in Dickson, in Brisbane’s outer north-west, against Labor’s Ali France. He is tipped to hang on despite a massive effort by GetUp to oust him.

Petrie, held by the LNP’s Luke Howarth, is also marginal on 1.6 per cent and has gone with the government in 15 out of the past 16 elections. Howarth’s ALP opponent is Corrine Mulholland.

The other two seats in play are Leichhardt, which takes in Cairns and Cape York, and Griffith, Kevin Rudd’s old seat in Brisbane’s inner southeast.

Leichhardt is held by former crocodile farmer Warren Entsch for the LNP by 3.93 per cent. Katter and Greens preferences will prove decisive in this seat. Labor has hopes but the LNP remains confident.

Labor’s Terri Butler holds Griffith by 1.4 per cent. Green preferences will get her home and the seat doesn’t figure in discussions of potential gains and losses from either side.

■ Sid Maher will call each and every seat as part of The Australian’s live coverage of Federal Election 2019 on Saturday, May 18. You can follow Sid on Twitter and read his latest stories here.