Electoral pessimism now appears to be baked in for both leaders

Both Anthony Albanese and Peter Dutton remain bogged in negative approval ratings.

The electorate is stuck in a perpetual state of pessimism.

There was little enthusiasm for electing Labor under Anthony Albanese in May 2022 and there remains a lack of enthusiasm for his government now.

Considering the state of the macro-conditions, a slowing economy, high interest rates and the cost of living squeeze, it is remarkable how little blame the ­Albanese government appears to be attracting for the problems it now presides over, which are ­numerous.

A post-referendum trend is emerging. Both leaders remain bogged in negative approval ratings. Both major parties are suffering from suppressed primary vote support.

The stability of Newspoll so far this year suggests the environment is equally challenging for Labor and the Coalition. Neither is cutting through to voters.

This is likely to remain the case while neither is addressing the primary issue of concern for most voters, which will continue to be the fall in national living standards.

While both sides lifted a point in the latest Newspoll at the expense of the Greens and independents, the two-party-preferred split is unchanged.

Labor continues to exchange votes with the Greens on the left, failing to draw appeal within ­Middle Australia.

The prospect of the ­Coalition being competitive enough to win an election in 12 months is rapidly vanishing, despite the ammunition the government continues to hand them.

This points to two things: ­Albanese is likely to be prime minister after the next election, but potentially as the leader of a minority government.

Evidence of the electoral malaise can be found in the support for Albanese’s Future Made in Australia agenda.

A majority of voters support the proposition of a bigger role for government in driving investment in renewables and local manufacturing.

This is not surprising. On the surface it has expected electoral appeal.

But Albanese and his Treasurer, Jim Chalmers, haven’t yet converted this into any meaningful rise in support for Labor.

The same was true of Albanese’s broken promise tax cuts in January. A majority of voters supported the redistribution of benefit from the high-income earners to lower wage earners but it wasn’t enough to shift their vote in any demonstrable way.

The net effect is that Labor is keeping its nose in front but not by enough to guarantee that it could form government again in its own right.

At this point in the electoral cycle, with the start of the election campaign now just 12 months away, the lead indicators continue to point in this direction.

If a government was on track to lose an election, it would already have begun to drift consistently into negative territory.

Peter Dutton will have to lift the Coalition’s primary vote into the 40s and keep it there, if he is to have any hope of unseating the government.

Considering the fragility of the economy, anything could happen between now and the next election, but the prospect of the ­Coalition establishing a winning position is becoming increasingly difficult.