Election 2025: Tassie battlegrounds could be key in tight election race

In a tight race, a few marginal seats in Tasmania could make all the difference at this election, but it will require big commitments.

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In a tight finish, Tasmania could hold the key to who wins government at this election, and both major party leaders will devote a disproportionate time to the island in this campaign.

Three key marginal seats are in play and independents are threatening to complicate the outcome in a fourth.

Underscoring the stakes, both major parties have replaced sitting MPs with new candidates in two marginal seats, while the Prime Minister drove special legislation on salmon farming through parliament this week to shore up Labor’s position.

Both major parties will be pushed by the state’s business community to significantly boost the Bass Strait Freight Equalisation Scheme that offsets Tasmania’s extra shipping costs.

Liberal candidates for Tasmanian marginal seats: Mal Hingston, Braddon; sitting Bass MP Bridget Archer: and Lyons candidate Susie Bower.

In the sprawling, largely rural fringe seat of Lyons, which straddles much of the state, Labor has parachuted in former state leader Rebecca White.

The decision – forcing the retirement of sitting MP Brian Mitchell, despite winning the seat in 2016 and holding it since – was instigated by senior party figures.

Ms White, despite losing three consecutive state elections as leader, is popular in the electorate, the boundaries of which exactly mirror her former state seat. It’s held by a wafer-thin 0.9 per cent.

She told The Australian she would focus her campaign on “affordable and accessible health care, secure and well-paid jobs and cost of living relief”.

“Health is the biggest issue this election campaign and only Labor has a track record of delivering Medicare Urgent Care Clinics and cheaper medicines, along with a fully costed plan for more free doctor visits,” she said.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese with Lyons candidate Rebecca White, left, and Franklin MP Julie Collins. Picture: Nikki Davis-Jones

Her Liberal opponent, Susie Bower, has effectively been campaigning in the seat for years. On Friday painted her opponent as being part of the political class. “I believe people are looking for … someone with real life experience,” she said.

Labor believes it has a good chance of regaining Braddon, which includes the state’s northwest and west coast, and could retake northern Bass.

That would help the party offset losses on the mainland and wipe the Coalition from the political map of Tasmania. “Braddon is very much on our target list, as of course will Bass be,” Mr Albanese told reporters during a recent visit.

Senior party figures persuaded veteran Senator Anne Urquhart to quit the upper house to run for Braddon.

There is some nervousness among the Liberals about Ms Urquhart’s high profile within the electorate, built up over 15 years in the Senate, matched against Liberal newcomer candidate Mal Hingston.

However, the party has a considerable buffer – an 8 per cent margin – and Braddon remains a quite conservative electorate, dominated by farming, mining and manufacturing.

Both Mr Hingston and Ms Urquhart have been vocal in support of the salmon industry.

In politically fickle Bass, the Liberals are confident because of the popularity of sitting MP Bridget Archer, despite a far lower margin – just 1.4 per cent.

Ms Archer is a Liberal moderate whose willingness to defy the party line angers conservatives but reflects the centrist nature of her constituency.

She accused Labor of betraying its values. “People have been left behind, there are record numbers sleeping rough on the streets of Launceston, emergency services are overwhelmed,” she said.

Labor, however, believes Bass – which it held from 2007 to 2013 and from 2016 until Ms Archer’s win in 2019 – could fall to its candidate Jess Teesdale, who has spruiked Labor’s bulk-billing and cheaper medicine policies.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese in northern Tasmania, near Launceston, with Jess Teesdale, Labor candidate for the federal seat of Bass. Picture: PMO

Mr Albanese chose Launceston, around which Bass sits, to launch Labor’s “Strengthening Medicare” election pitch last month.

In the state’s south, Franklin is a safe Labor seat, held by Agriculture Minister Julie Collins since 2007, currently with a comfortable 13.7 per cent margin.

However, the presence of two prominent independents from opposite ends of the political spectrum, and a strong Greens vote in 2022, complicates the contest.