Liberals hold Tasmanian marginals amid salmon stink but Labor’s Rebecca White a boost: poll

With Labor copping it from all sides in Tasmania’s salmon debate, polling suggests the party can forget winning Liberal seats in the state. But there is good news for the ALP in the key seat of Lyons.

Labor candidate for Lyons Rebecca White. Picture: Nikki Davis-Jones

Amid rising anger over Tasmania’s salmon standoff, polling shows the Liberals easily retaining two marginal federal seats in the state but a bold candidate switch helping to save another for Labor.

Polling obtained by The Weekend Australian shows the Liberals retaining the northwest seat of Braddon – at the heart of the salmon controversy – and Launceston-based Bass.

Both results are a blow to the ALP, which has particularly fancied its prospects of regaining Braddon, following the retirement of popular sitting MP Gavin Pearce, and the switch of Labor senator Anne Urquhart to the lower house race.

However, there is better news for Anthony Albanese in sprawling Lyons, where the Prime Minister backed the replacement of sitting Labor MP Brian Mitchell with former state leader Rebecca White.

The poll, by local pollsters EMRS from November 5 to 14, suggests Labor would win the ultra-marginal seat with either candidate but far more comfortably with Ms White.

Opposition Leader Peter Dutton plans to visit Lyons at the weekend to maximise local voter unrest over the salmon issue.

The polling, conducted for industry groups, suggests the switch from Mr Mitchell, who won Lyons in 2016 and held it in 2019 and 2022, to Ms White, is paying off.

When voters in the electorate were asked for voting intention without naming the candidate, the results were: Labor 34 per cent; Liberal 31; Greens 11; independent 7; Jacqui Lambie Network 4.

But when the two main candidates were named, the results became: White for Labor 40 per cent; Susie Bower for the Liberals 31; a candidate for the Greens 9; and an independent 8.

In Braddon, polling based on party showed the Liberal candidate, defence contractor Mal Hingston, ahead: Liberal 44 per cent; Labor 27; Greens 9; JLN 7, and independents and Pauline Hanson’s One Nation both on 4.

Polling in the southern seat of Franklin suggests Labor is holding its primary vote, at 36 per cent – the same as election 2022 – but the Liberal vote has surged from 26 per cent at the same election to 35 per cent.

Sitting Labor MP and minister Julie Collins would most likely retain the seat on Greens preferences, with the Greens on 11 per cent. However, a high independent vote – also 11 per cent – adds some uncertainty.

A Maugean skate in Macquarie Harbour.

Liberal strategists believe Lyons is in play, that Ms Collins can be given a scare in Franklin, and that the salmon issue is toxic for Labor.

Both sides of the Macquarie Harbour salmon debate – industry and workers as well as conservationists – are frustrated Environment Minister Tanya Plibersek is yet to make a decision on her so far year-long rethink of approvals for fish farms.

Both sides have reacted with hostility to Mr Albanese’s suggestion that aquaculture in the harbour be granted a “national interest exemption” from environment laws.

Industry believes the move or similar “workaround”, while potentially required as a stopgap should Ms Plibersek revoke approvals, is unnecessary, urging the minister to instead allow fish farms to continue with updated conditions.