Labor speared on salmon in Macquarie Harbour if Tanya Plibersek opts for shutdown, poll finds

New polling suggests Labor will suffer a marginal seats backlash if Tanya Plibersek carries through with her threat to curtail salmon farming in a Tasmanian harbour.

A maugean skate in Tamania’s Macquarie Harbour.

Half of Tasmanians do not want Tanya Plibersek to halt salmon farming in Macquarie Harbour, with key marginal seats strongly opposed to such a move, new polling suggests.

The EMRS poll of 1000 Tasmanians across all electorates, obtained by The Australian, shows 50 per cent of Tasmanians oppose an industry shut down in the western harbour, with 36 per cent favouring the move.

While there is no seat-by-seat breakdown, the green-left nature of the Hobart-based seat of Clark points to very significant opposition to any industry shutdown in Braddon and Bass.

These are the two northern marginal seats Labor was hoping to win back from the Liberals in Tasmania at the coming federal election.

The poll, conducted from Nov­ember 5 to 14, also suggests any curtailing of salmon farms could make it harder for Labor to retain ultra-marginal Lyons and trim its margin in southern Franklin.

It will strengthen the position of Anthony Albanese, who appears to be siding with the industry, as it awaits a decision from the Environment Minister, who is reviewing 2012 federal approval for salmon pens in the harbour.

Salmon Tasmania said the polling showed the $1.46bn industry had strong support and urged Ms Plibersek to end uncertainty for workers hanging on her decision, a year after the review began.

“These numbers show that Tasmanians right across the state back salmon workers, back sal­mon families, and back salmon communities such as the west coast,” chief executive Luke Martin said. “We really do not want this to become a political football around an election. It would not only be divisive in the community but also fuels uncertainty for everyone involved.”

Ms Plibersek, whose department is considering a range of divergent submissions and science, has said her decision will be made in accordance with environment law and the best scientific advice.

The review was triggered by a request from environment groups and advice from the Threatened Species Scientific Committee that waste and oxygen depletion linked to salmon farms was having a “catastrophic” impact on the endangered Maugean skate.

The EMRS poll shows 30 per cent “strongly oppose” ceasing salmon farming in the harbour, a further 20 per cent “somewhat ­oppose” the move.

Support for banning fish pens included 24 per cent “strongly supporting” and 12 per cent “somewhat supporting” it. Twelve per cent were “neutral” and the remainder “unsure”.

Environment groups and some scientists are urging Ms Plibersek to ban salmon farming in the harbour to prevent extinction of the rare stingray-like fish, a living link to the dinosaur age found nowhere else.

However, industry argues a ban would be overreach, unjustified and threaten hundreds of jobs.

“The science is clearer by the day – salmon farming and the Maugean skate can coexist,” Mr Martin said.

“Water conditions in Macquarie Harbour are at decade-highs and continue to improve, the population of the skate is stabilising.

“And the captive breeding program, together with the Macquarie Harbour Oxygenation Project, are proving a success.”

The issue appears to be fuelling tension between the Prime Minister and Ms Plibersek, sparked most recently by his scuttling of a possible deal with the Greens to secure passage of the minister’s environment protection reforms.

On Monday, Mr Albanese “absolutely” ruled out any split with Ms Plibersek and has previously acknowledged the salmon decision is one for her alone to make.

Recent national polling suggests most Australians would support tough action by Ms Plibersek to remove salmon pens from the harbour if necessary to save the skate. The EMRS poll suggests Tasmanians take a different view.