Election 2025: Labor lights up over ‘private claim of 30pc power price fall’

Labor has been accused of privately assuring industry wholesale electricity prices will fall over the next decade while refusing to make the same promise publicly.

Anthony Albanese in Perth on Monday. Picture: Jason Edwards/NewsWire

Anthony Albanese is refusing to say why he is sticking with his key climate targets despite jettisoning the modelling that underpinned them, as Labor was accused of ­privately assuring industry electricity prices will fall over the next decade while failing to make the same promise publicly.

As the Prime Minister distances himself from the RepuTex modelling that was the foundation of his entire energy policy, ­independent Food Distributors ­Australia chief executive Richard Forbes said he was last week told by advisers in the office of ­Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen that wholesale electricity ­prices were forecast to fall by up to 30 per cent over a decade.

However, Labor sources dispute Mr Forbes’ recollection and claim he misinterpreted the ­discussion.

Electricity prices have become a focal point of the election campaign, with both sides arguing their plans would be better for families, but have so far failed to back this up with modelling.

With Mr Albanese coming under pressure over his failure to deliver on a pledge to lower electricity prices by $275 by this year, he distanced himself from modelling that underpinned his policies.

This is despite Labor retaining key parts of the 2021 modelling in its current policy framework, ­including an international commitment to lower carbon emissions by 43 per cent of 2005 levels by 2030.

Mr Albanese refused to say why the RepuTex modelling was no longer relevant despite Labor maintaining the 43 per cent emissions pledge and 82 per cent renewables target that was plucked out of the document ahead of the last election.

“Our energy policy offering is all out there,” Mr Albanese said while campaigning in Perth on Monday. “RepuTex modelling was RepuTex modelling that they put out.”

Peter Dutton and Climate Change Minister Chris Bowen in Sydney on Sunday. Picture: AAP

Mr Bowen – after standing by the RepuTex modelling for years – said on Monday night it was designed for 2022 instead of 2025, and Labor should not be expected to go into every election with the same policy documents. “That was modelling done in 2021 for a 2022 election,” Mr Bowen told the ABC. “It was the modelled impact of our policies for the 2022 election. We’re now going to the 2025 election. You don’t go to every election with exactly the same policy documents.”

When asked if he would provide new modelling on power prices, Mr Bowen did not answer and said he was following “every credible expert” in stating that ­renewables would bring power prices down.

“What we’re doing is following the pathway that’s been set out by every credible expert … most particularly the ISP – integrated systems plan – which is one of the most sophisticated energy plans in the world,” he said.

“The Australian Energy Market Operator. It’s pointed out the best way to the most affordable and reliable energy system, as well as one which is very much lowering emissions, is to stay the course with renewable energy backed by storage, backed by transmission, and backed by gas peaking.”

Peter Dutton on Monday again refused to offer a figure for how much power prices would come down under a ­government he leads and continued to promise “more detail” of the plan in the coming days of the campaign.

Modelling released last year by the Australian Energy Market Commission forecast that wholesale and retail electricity prices would fall over the next decade under the Albanese government’s renewables-dominated policy, with household bills to drop by about 13 per cent.

But the Prime Minister and Mr Bowen have not used those figures when asked about ­whether electricity prices would come down under a re-elected Labor government, saying only that bills would be lower than under the Coalition.

Independent Food Distributors Australia Richard Forbes. Picture: Glenn Hunt

Mr Forbes – whose members use large chillers and freezers to store and supply food for 60,000 retailers – said he was told by Mr Bowen’s advisers that wholesale prices would fall by 10-15 per cent in the next five years and 30 per cent over a decade.

“Last week we spoke to Minister Bowen’s office, who informed me, and one of my members, that their modelling showed a reduction in wholesale energy prices of between 10-15 per cent in the next five years and 30 per cent in 10 years,” Mr Forbes said.

“They also told us they are on track to meet their 82 per cent ­renewable target by 2030. They are sitting on 46 per cent in the last quarter.”

IDFA has been calling on the government to drop its 82 per cent renewables target amid growing calls from industry for the government to rethink its ­energy policy and have a stronger focus on gas.

Mr Forbes – who worked for then-deputy prime minister Mark Vaile between 2005 and 2007 – said “mixed messages” from the government on energy did not give the food sector confidence Mr Albanese had a plan to lower the costs of doing business.

He accused Mr Albanese of wrongly claiming price gouging was the reason for increasing food prices, when it was actually because of the cost of energy.

“Mixed messages such as these give us little confidence the Labor Party has a plan to reduce costs in the food industry which will in turn put downward pressure on food prices for consumers,” Mr Forbes said.

“Mr Bowen’s office also said they had not done any modelling on the impact of rising energy prices, business costs on food ­prices.

“There must be an understanding that they are all connected, as is the food supply chain.”

A spokeswoman for Mr Bowen on Monday said: “The ­Albanese government takes its energy advice from the experts, not former Coalition staffers.”

Mr Forbes has been out of politics for nearly 20 years, and responded that he took notes at the meeting and sent them to his board immediately after.

“I haven’t been involved in politics for two decades and I’m not a member of any political party. Our organisation has ­always taken an apolitical stance – with either the government of the day or the opposition – on our members’ issues,” the IDFA chief executive said.

“The majority of IFDA’s members are family-owned businesses who provide food to 60,000 commercial venues. They operate on very small margins which is why governments need to understand the ramifications of their policy decisions, and conversations relating to energy.”

IDFA chairman James ­Kostarakis hit back at the government’s slight at Mr Forbes.

“I’ve only known Richard to be an upstanding person and his approach to advocacy has always been apolitical. Stick to the issue, not the man,” he said.