Power bills in focus as PM backtracks on modelling

In one of the most significant moments for voters’ wallets in the campaign so far, Anthony Albanese has walked away from modelling his government has relied on to project power prices out to 2030. In doing so he has jettisoned the financial credibility of the government’s increasing reliance on renewables, leaving householders and business to worry about how much higher their bills will get.

The modelling was what Labor used in the 2022 campaign to make what turned out to be its empty $275 energy price cut promise. As opposition leader, Mr Albanese was effusive, gushing that it was “the most comprehensive modelling ever done for any policy by an opposition in Australia’s history since Federation”. But on Sunday, asked by The Australian’s Canberra bureau chief, Greg Brown, if he stood by that modelling given it was “what you based your policies on, you took ownership of that modelling”, the Prime Minister was dismissive: “It’s RepuTex modelling” was all he had to say.

Peter Dutton’s ability to take advantage of the matter will be a test of his campaigning skills and a potential turning point in the election. Shortly after Mr Albanese’s press conference the Opposition Leader reiterated his promise that energy prices would come down under a Coalition government. His claim that releasing more gas supplies would put downward pressure on prices was valid. That is the point of the Coalition’s east coast gas reservation policy and its pledge to approve Woodside’s proposed extension of its North West Shelf gas project.

Environment Minister Tanya Plibersek, to the nation’s detriment, has again delayed a North West Shelf decision until May 1. That irresponsible delay will please Greens-leaning voters in her Sydney seat who want the project scrapped but it will undermine Western Australia, the economy and prosperity. WA’s state Labor government supports the project, which the company plans will continue liquefied natural gas production until 2070.

But voters are entitled to see the opposition’s figures. Mr Dutton promised to release “some more analysis over the next couple of days, which will provide some percentage figures and some detail about what we expect the impact will be” of the Coalition’s energy policies. The details need to be as comprehensive as possible. “We’ve already said to the Australian people we can have long-term energy costs 44 per cent cheaper, that’s $263bn cheaper than Labor’s plan,” Mr Dutton said. He must also provide details on important economic policies, such as industrial relations reform.

A fortnight ago Brown reported that energy experts said Labor would fail to meet key targets from its 2022 energy policy after it removed a link to the RepuTex modelling from its website that presented its pledge to lower carbon emissions by 43 per cent of 2005 levels by 2030. Energy economist Bruce Mountain said Labor was on track to fail in its pledge to cut electricity prices by $275 by 2025, to generate 82 per cent of power by renewables by 2030, and to create hundreds of thousands of jobs because of access to “abundant, cheap electricity”. But Energy Minister Chris Bowen dismissed that assessment. The report that the government was not on track to meet its 82 per cent renewable energy target “is out of date, at best”, he wrote in The Australian. “Our national grid is now 46 per cent renewable and we have more batteries and storage coming online to ensure the cheapest power is available when and where you need it.” But Mr Albanese was distinctly cool on Sunday about the modelling the government’s promises were based on.

As households struggle to pay power bills climbing by hundreds of dollars a quarter, and many businesses paying thousands of dollars more, voters have had enough of the smoke and mirrors. In one of the world's most energy-rich countries, both major parties running for office need to present clear, reliable projections to the electorate.