Anthony Albanese abandons modelling underpinning Labor’s energy and climate agenda

Anthony Albanese’s energy transition has been rocked after he junked ALP-commissioned modelling underpinning Labor’s power bill reduction and emissions reduction targets | WATCH

Anthony Albanese has morning tea with Italian-born Filomena Knerr in Canberra on Sunday. Picture: Jason Edwards/NewsWire

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Anthony Albanese’s energy and climate change transition has been rocked after the Prime Minister junked ALP-commissioned modelling underpinning Labor’s ­promise to cut power bills by $378 from 2030 and the government’s 43 per cent emissions ­reduction target.

In a move attacked by the ­Coalition and Greens as “waving the white flag on power prices” and not “cutting emissions fast enough”, Mr Albanese torpedoed the 2022 election RepuTex modelling he previously dubbed “the most comprehensive modelling ever done for any policy by any ­opposition in Australia’s history since Federation”.

Asked by The Australian whether Labor stood-by its Powering Australia modelling that electricity bills would reduce by more than $100 between 2025 and 2030, Mr Albanese on Sunday declared three-times that it was ­“RepuTex’s modelling”.

Mr Albanese has blamed international factors including the Ukraine war, for failing to deliver $275 reductions in power bills by 2025. But this is not relevant to the modelling assumption there would be a further $100 fall in ­energy costs over the five years to 2030. Mr Albanese had earlier ­refused to guarantee that power prices would fall once Labor’s ­energy relief rebates expired at the end of 2025.

As the energy wars intensified heading into day four of the election campaign, with Mr Albanese and Peter Dutton set to campaign in Perth and Sydney on Monday, the Opposition Leader came under pressure for failing to provide details on how voters would be better off under the ­Coalition’s nuclear and gas-­powered energy plan.

Mr Albanese said Mr Dutton “can’t explain anything about his policies, how it will work, how it will make a difference … all it is ­essentially, is a search for a dis­traction from his $600bn ­nuclear plan”.

Mr Dutton later said he would release “some more analysis … over the next couple of days which will provide some percentage figures and some detail about what we expect the impact will be”.

The Liberal leader’s intervention came after opposition ­climate change and energy spokesman Ted O’Brien and ­Coalition campaign spokesman James Paterson refused to provide clarity on how their gas-fired ­energy plan would lower prices. Senator Paterson said “we’re not planning on putting a dollar figure on how much your personal bills will go down”.

Labor and the Coalition are also under pressure from the Greens and Climate 200-backed Teals for entering the campaign with no 2035 emissions reduction targets, after the Climate Change Authority in December delayed providing advice to Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen for “several months”.

Mr Albanese’s move to distance himself from the modelling comes after Mr Bowen told The Australian earlier this month that he was standing firm on key ­Powering Australia assumptions, including achieving 82 per cent of renewables in the grid by 2030. In addition to lowering average retail power bills by $275 from mid-2025 and $378 by the end of the decade, the Powering Australia modelling made bold assumptions around new jobs, investment and ­emissions reduction without providing analysis underpinning its forecasts.

The modelling, which was ­quietly scrubbed from the ALP website weeks ahead of the May 3 election, anchored Labor’s 43 per cent emissions reduction target by 2030, the 82 per cent renewable energy penetration goal, and included claims that 604,000 direct and indirect jobs would be created by 2030. It said emissions would be cut by 440 mega tonnes by 2030 and forecasted the policy would deliver $24bn in public investment, driving $76bn in total investment.

When Mr Albanese launched the Powering Australia policy and RepuTex forecasts, he said “our plan will create 604,000 extra jobs by 2030 … it will see electricity prices fall from the current level by $275 for household by 2025 at the end of our first term if we are successful”.

Mr Bowen said “the modelling shows that Labor’s policy will reduce emissions by 43 per cent by 2030, and Australia’s electricity market will be 82 per cent ­renewable”.

Grattan Institute energy program director Tony Wood described the Prime Minister’s sudden abandonment of Labor’s RepuTex modelling as a “pretty lame excuse”.

“At the time they talked about RepuTex being Australia’s premier, leading model of the energy market. I didn’t think they were at the time. They do a great job in certain areas but not this. And they never published the analysis that supported (the assumptions),” Mr Wood said.

“If you want an answer, you just make the assumptions that produce your answer. That’s not very clever. You’ve got to understand what did they assume was going to happen and how? What they should’ve done is done what the Prime Minister did (on Sunday) but on the day after they were elected.

“And say the Ukraine war has blown a hole in all of this, we’re going to do everything we can and look to achieve the highest levels of renewables and that will deliver the best price to meet our emissions reduction targets. They could’ve done that, they chose not to and as a result they’ve shot themselves in the foot.”

Mr Wood, who also questioned the reality of Mr Dutton’s promise to drive down wholesale domestic gas prices from over $14 per gigajoule to $10, said political parties should realise that impacts on ­energy prices are often “not in the control of government”.

“We don’t have 2035 targets from either side of politics, we’ve got a net zero by 2050 but that’s a long way off. Any business that makes a big investment does modelling but they don’t make the investment on one single forecast. They look at a range of things that could go wrong here … and think about how does my investment decision be flexible or respond to things I don’t know about,” he said.

After the CCA stalled advice to the government on a 2035 emissions reduction target, the delay was blamed on evolving international headwinds including the return of Donald Trump.

The CCA advice must provide trajectories that are no less aspirational than the 2030 target of 43 per cent. It has been speculated the CCA is considering a new target in the range of a 65 to 75 per cent cut on 2005 levels. Under the Paris Agreement, all countries must submit updated Nationally Determined Contributions including 2035 targets by September. The CCA warned in November that “further action” was required to reach the 82 per cent renewables target.

After refusing to clarify on Sky News about why the Coalition had not provided dollar figures or percentages on savings for consumers, Mr O’Brien seized on the RepuTex modelling and said “Anthony Albanese is waving the white flag on energy prices”.

“Australians are paying up to $1,300 more than Labor promised. Australians can see through the smokescreen,” Mr O’Brien said.

“The last time Labor promised lower power prices, they also claimed they’d hit a 43 per cent emissions reduction target and an 82 per cent renewables target by 2030 – both are falling behind by the day, and Australians are paying the price.”

Greens Leader Adam Bandt, who is fending off Labor and ­Coalition challenges in Greens seats, attacked both of the major parties for failing to lower power prices and driving-up emissions.

“Labor’s continued approvals of new coal and gas means the country can’t cut emissions fast enough, and Peter Dutton would make pollution even worse. We can’t keep voting for the same two parties and expecting a different result,” Mr Bandt told The ­Australian.

“The only chance of a safer climate and lower power bills is voting Greens to keep Peter Dutton out and get Labor to act by stopping new coal and gas mines.”