Progressive climate of fear as nuclear support takes hold

Chris Bowen will weaponise government modelling warning of blackouts under the Coalition’s energy policy and demand-supply gaps of up to 49 per cent by 2035, amid growing support for Peter Dutton’s nuclear pitch in inner-city seats.

Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen. Picture: NewsWire / Martin Ollman

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The Coalition’s energy policy will lead to blackouts and “massive” gaps between electricity supply and demand, according to government modelling that Chris Bowen will weaponise, amid surging support in inner-city seats for Peter Dutton’s nuclear power pitch.

The Climate Change and ­Energy Minister released ­departmental analysis based on the limited data available relating to the Coalition’s policy, which forecasts two scenarios with ­demand-supply gaps of 49 per cent and 18 per cent by 2035. The energy regulator’s reliability standard is 0.002 per cent.

The intervention comes amid growing anxiety among progressives over a collective failure to wage an effective pro-renewables campaign to counter Mr Dutton’s nuclear push.

Recent polling for independents in some teal seats, where cost of living and housing still rank as top priorities, revealed about 40 per cent of voters were open to nuclear as an option, with about 20 per cent opposed. Internal Liberal Party polling is also showing support for nuclear in key electorates, with some teal seats reporting majority support for the zero-emissions power source.

Ahead of Mr Dutton delivering a speech in Sydney next Monday on the potential of a nuclear-­powered Australia, Mr Bowen launched a pre-emptive strike seizing on the fact the Coalition had not released modelling or costings supporting its nuclear, gas, renewables and transmission policies. The Australian understands Mr Dutton – who on Thursday ­announced his candidate Maggie Forrest in the inner-Brisbane seat of Ryan, which the Liberals lost to the Greens in 2022 – will not ­announce nuclear costings and modelling in his speech. Amid rising expectations of a March election, the Coalition will unveil its full energy policy package before December.

Using Department of Energy analysis testing two scenarios, Mr Bowen said that “by 2035, Peter Dutton’s so-called energy plan to increase reliability and lower bills will result in a staggering 49 per cent gap between demand and the supply available to meet it”.

“He’d take to our finely tuned electricity system planning with a sledgehammer,” said Mr Bowen, writing in The Australian.

“Detailed government analysis of AEMO forecasts show the ­Coalition’s plan to pause new ­renewable investment and defund critical transmission infrastructure needed to increase network capacity now, will result in ­massive supply shortages over the next decade.”

With AEMO forecasting the east coast will need an extra 67GW in capacity by 2035, the major parties would need to virtually double the current grid output to 153.5GW.

Opposition climate change and energy spokesman Ted O’Brien said under Labor’s “failing” plan, the lights would go out in Australia. He said the government was forcing 90 per cent of baseload power out of the grid by 2034 while suffocating gas and stalling the rollout of renewables.

“Chris Bowen has confirmed Labor does not believe our electricity grid needs 24/7 baseload power and can instead rely entirely on weather-dependent energy sources, like wind and solar,” Mr O’Brien said.

“The Coalition believes in a balanced energy mix which includes 24/7 baseload energy coming from zero-emissions nuclear power plants when coal retires from the system. It exposes the desperation which is gripping Chris Bowen as he wastes so much time attacking a Coalition energy policy which hasn’t even been released instead of doing his job.

“Prices are soaring, the lights are going out and emissions are rising, and the responsible minister is running attack lines on a policy he hasn’t even seen yet.”

While national polling ranking voter concerns shows climate change tumbling down the priorities list, the net-zero emissions transition remains a prominent issue in inner-city teal, Greens, Liberal and Labor seats. The Australian understands pressure is building on the ACTU, the renewables energy industry and climate change lobby groups to launch co-ordinated campaigns against nuclear. Sources said the ACTU, which in June began an anti-nuclear campaign, has had little to no impact.

AEMO has a reliability standard of 0.002 per cent, which represents the acceptable gap in demand and supply before the regulator intervenes. Fuelled by electrification of homes and industry and broader economic growth, AEMO is forecasting a spike in electricity ­demand, which is projected to double by 2050.

The first government scenario, which assumes coal plants shut as projected by 2035, the Coalition caps investment and does not build any utility scale renewables beyond what’s currently committed and halts new transmission projects, claims there is a 49 per cent gap between demand for energy and available supply.

The second scenario, forecasting an 18 per cent gap of unmet energy by 2035, assumes all coal plants are extended beyond 2040. One of those coal stations has been designated by the Coalition as a potential nuclear site.

The Minerals Council of Australia, whose members have advocated for nuclear energy to be considered as part of Australia’s energy mix, has launched an ­apolitical digital campaign ­designed to bust myths about ­nuclear power.

In July, the Australian revealed that MCA polling conducted in April showed 44 per cent of voters in teal, Greens and independent seats supported conventional nuclear power plants and reactors, with 23 per cent opposed.

Younger voters in inner-city seats, who rank climate action as a top priority, are indicating they are open to exploring new nuclear technologies to achieve net-zero emissions faster.

The Australian understands teals and Greens campaigners, who still believe cost-of-living and housing rank as the top issues for inner-city voters, are concerned Mr Dutton’s election promise to build up to seven large-scale and small-modular reactor nuclear plants is gaining traction. The left-leaning Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis will join the fight on Friday, releasing a new report examining the impact of nuclear power on households.

Mr Dutton has indicated the Coalition will ramp up gas to support the exit of coal and transition to nuclear over the next 10 years. Anthony Albanese has also positioned gas as Labor’s preferred baseload transition fuel as more renewables, battery ­storage and transmission come online.

Mr Bowen said it would take “some exquisite kind of circus ­manoeuvre” for the Coalition to explain “how a (demand-supply) gap this big is actually a plan to increase reliability”.

Mr Bowen said with 24 coal generators announcing closure dates under previous Coalition governments, the Liberals and Nationals had come up with no plan to address shortfalls. “Now their solution to meet demand is forcing coal plant operators to keep assets open longer – a recipe for unreliability,” he said. “There hasn’t been a day in the past 12 months without an unplanned outage. Power stations don’t get more reliable as they get older.

“Even if every generator slated to close between now and 2035 … were forced to run until 2040, it still leaves Peter Dutton with an 18 per cent gap between energy available, and energy needed in 2035. That’s like risking 4 hours and 20 minutes every day with no guarantee that when you hit the switch the lights will turn on.”