Peter Dutton goes all-in, but will reactors deliver poll results?

Peter Dutton is releasing his nuclear policy on Wednesday.

Peter Dutton is going all-in on nuclear power as Anthony Albanese’s renewables rollout stumbles and the Coalition eyes swing voters in regional and outer-suburban electorates.

There is growing optimism in Coalition ranks that the Opposition Leader is making electoral inroads on the back of a nuclear-framed energy and climate change policy focused on lower power bills, a credible path to net zero by 2050 and securing a long-term baseload energy source.

Dutton is banking on Labor not achieving its emissions reduction and renewables targets and failing to win community support for offshore wind and transmission line upgrades designed to better connect clean energy projects.

Outside of Western Australia, Coalition strategists are increasingly confident of winning Labor seats including Paterson in the NSW Hunter, Gilmore in southern NSW, Bennelong and Reid in Sydney, McEwen in Victoria and Lyons in Tasmania. Labor strategists are expecting no gains in Queensland.

Support for nuclear inside Coalition ranks is unanimous. Moderates are strongly backing nuclear power, believing community sentiment is moving rapidly in favour of zero-emissions small modular reactors. This position is backed by Joe Biden and British Labour leader Keir Starmer, who believe net zero by 2050 is likely unachievable without nuclear power. Albanese and Chris Bowen remain firmly on Team Renewables, refusing to abandon Labor’s 2022 election policies, which included a broken promise to lower household energy bills by $275 from 2025.

At The Australian’s Energy Nation forum on Wednesday, Jim Chalmers will attempt to inject economic rationale and logic into what has become an emotive argument for many Labor MPs.

While Coalition MPs believe they are on to a winner, there is a long way to run until polling day and complicated investment and regulatory hurdles to jump. Support for nuclear energy is shifting but there are open questions as to whether it will turn votes on polling day.