Tensions between Dominic Perrottet and Matt Kean at centre of NSW Liberal Party election defeat

A wide-ranging review has found NSW Liberal members were ‘asleep at the wheel’ on polling day and failed to reveal vital flagship policy details until the last minute.

Then-NSW premier Dominic Perrottet and treasurer Matt Kean.

Tensions between the offices of Dominic Perrottet and Matt Kean were a key reason for the NSW Liberals’ devastating state election loss, as a wide-ranging review found members were “asleep at the wheel” on polling day and failed to reveal vital flagship policy details until the last minute.

A failure to integrate staff and share information were also noted as reasons for the defeat in an autopsy analysing the Coalition’s fall from power after 12 years, as well as failing to focus messaging on social media platforms such as YouTube and TikTok.

Led by former NSW premier Nick Greiner and ex-NSW MP Peta Seaton, the report also highlighted areas where the Coalition lagged behind Chris Minns’ election-winning campaign, including a lack of female candidates, a late start, “macro-level” messaging and a muddled media policy.

 

The report, given to the party’s state executive on Friday and obtained by The Weekend Australian, was briefed to MPs in October. The most revealing information was the “tension” between the offices of the two most powerful members of state: then premier Mr Perrottet and his treasurer, Mr Kean.

“(The) treasurer’s office staff were not integrated in the campaign structure … (and there was) a failure to share information in time,” the report said. “Detail on the Future Fund for Kids policy was not available until eight hours after it was launched, and eligibility criteria kept changing.”

The report found Mr Kean’s office was “not consulted on costs” of major policy announcements, such as raising the Warragamba Dam wall, and media releases from Mr Perrottet’s office were often “not fact-checked or costed”.

Treasury staff were also often not kept informed and “failed to calculate budget updates”, compounded by tensions between key offices and “silo behaviour from ministers”.

Although the report praised disparate parts of the campaign, the Liberals fell short in key areas.

“The parliamentary team measured message success on traditional and now irrelevant metrics such as getting ‘the Daily Tele front page’,” the report found, urging it to expand messaging to YouTube, TikTok and WeChat for the next election in 2027.

“The ALP outplayed us in every respect (in the media): strategy, tactics, timing, creativity, investment, application.”

However, the report also noted a “series of controversies” that damaged the party brand in the lead up to March’s election, “creating damaging distractions” from the government agenda. These included, the report noted, the “Barilaro matter” by appointingformer deputy premier John Barilaro to a trade post in New York over the selected candidate and the “sacking of Eleni Petinosas minister” after bullying allegations.

The report revealed a “strong start” by Mr Perrottet was derailed by “internally generated distractions, which sucked oxygenfrom the campaign”, including the “Nazi costume incident”, as well as “payback tactics from disaffected former office bearers”, and “big personalities in a fragmented cabinet”.

And “winnable seats” such as Leppington and Coogee “had no party infrastructure”, with resources instead having to be “sucked” from neighbouring seats. Both seats cited were eventually won by Labor.

The report found the party was “asleep at the wheel” on polling day, with ALP volunteers “outplaying even the most active branch campaigners”. Apparatuses didn’t switch into gear until the new year, only two months before election day, and candidates in key seats were still being confirmed across February. The report recommended the leader’s staff should move to campaign HQ “as early as January 2027”, while the party was also encouraged to “make better use of accomplished senior Liberal alumni” and even establish a US-like “campaign academy”.

Widely documented struggles with securing female candidates in safe or key seats also led to the Liberals’ downfall.

“Labor has outpaced (us) in ensuring diverse, young, and female representation,” the report found.

“There was (also) some degree of public disagreement over the best way to handle gender representation, putting even more attention on the gender issues facing the party.”

Labor’s “two-pronged messaging” also cut through and it dominated on “pocketbook matters”.

“The Liberals’ message often focused on macro-level outcomes,” the report found. “Labor’s was two-pronged: it emphasised a call for a fresh start for NSW, and featured direct appeals on concrete cost-of-living items.

“Liberals spoke to the long-view, but Labor spoke to the now.

“It isn’t hard to see how a voter who needs cost-of-living relief now might be unmoved by a promise to improve cost of living merely as a downstream effect of a long-term economic plan.”

Former NSW premier Dominic Perrottet. Picture: Richard Dobson

The Coalition lost nine seats at the March election, while Labor won minority government on the back of victories in key western Sydney seats such as Penrith, Parramatta, East Hills and Camden.

The report, however, did look forward – urging the party to jump on some of the issues already plaguing the Minns government.

“The Minns government has shown itself to have won office without having done the hard opposition ‘homework’ to develop a plan or vision for NSW,” it said.

“The early months of the Minns government already show the ALP uncommitted to essential transport and growth infrastructure, and unable to manage public sector expenditure, or produce solutions to cost of living and housing affordability.”

The sacking of ex-minister Tim Crakanthorp, reported to ICAC for failing to disclose property holdings, and selection of ex- Labor staffer Josh Murray as Transport secretary – “patently unqualified” – reflected a “startling lack of integrity and concern for good governance”, the report found.

The Liberal Party was encouraged to “act now to position the Minns government”.

“Define (Liberal leader) Speakman versus Minns with a plausible narrative and a positive contrast between Liberals and what we stand for,” the report said, urging the party to start tracking the government’s costings, broken promises, waste and controversy.