Dominic Perrottet far from done as Liberals play catch-up in NSW election: Newspoll

The Coalition has halved Labor’s lead one month out from the NSW election, with Dominic Perrottet extending his lead as preferred premier over Chris Minns.

NSW Premier Dominic Perrottet. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Tim Pascoe

The NSW government has halved Labor’s lead in the polls one month out from the state election, with Dominic Perrottet defying internal challenges to extend his lead as preferred premier over Opposition Leader Chris Minns.

Conducted exclusively for The Australian, the latest Newspoll survey of 1014 voters reveals popular support for Labor has fallen by four points since September to 36 per cent – behind the ­Coalition whose primary vote has lifted two points to 37 per cent.

If replicated uniformly statewide at the March 25 election, a two-party-preferred 52-48 lead for Labor would see them claim four seats – East Hills, Upper Hunter, Penrith and Goulburn – well short of the nine seats necessary to claim a majority.

The result would leave Labor with 42 seats and the Coalition on 41, with the government losing Willoughby to independent Larissa Penn. This outcome raises the likelihood of an expanded crossbench becoming kingmakers in the 58th parliament of NSW.

Labor goes into the election holding a notional 38 seats, while the Coalition is governing from minority but with the support of former Liberals turned independents, retiring Drummoyne MP John Sidoti and Kiama MP Gareth Ward.

The survey was conducted on February 20-23 just days after the resignation of finance minister Damien Tudehope over his Transurban shareholdings, and parliamentary secretary Peter Poulos’ disendorsement and Liberal Party suspension after revelations he circulated explicit images of a female rival five years ago.

An upper house committee looking into allegations of impropriety at Hills Shire Council recently heard allegations Mr Perrottet’s younger brother Jean-Claude Perrottet had sought $50,000 as part of a plot to unseat federal Liberal MP Alex Hawke.

Despite these issues, Mr Perrottet has stretched his lead as preferred premier over Mr Minns to 10 points, with 43 per cent of voters backing the Liberal leader while support for Mr Minns has softened two points to 33 per cent.

The rise in support for Mr Perrottet as preferred premier correlated with his net satisfaction rating lifting three points since September to plus 9 per cent, with 50 per cent of those surveyed saying they were satisfied while 41 per cent were dissatisfied.

Mr Minn’s net satisfaction rating has fallen from plus 15 per cent in September to 8 per cent in the latest Newspoll, driven primarily by a six-point lift in dissatisfaction rating.

Just over a quarter of respondents remained uncommitted.

NSW Labor leader Chris Minns and wife Anna at North Cronulla beach in southern Sydney. Picture: John Feder

Despite Labor’s falling popular support, the Newspoll result indicated a mood for change was still prevalent, with 48 per cent of ­voters saying it was “time to give someone else a go”, while 36 per cent said the government deserved to be re-elected.

Since September, Labor has faced challenges of its own, including upper house candidate Khal Asfour being forced to stand aside after a string of revelations related to his expenses, and former rugby league player Terry Campese resigning as the party’s Monaro candidate.

Mr Minns has launched some of the party’s flagship election policies during this period, including a publicly owned state energy corporation, plans to trial cashless gambling cards across 500 pubs and clubs, and abolishing stamp duty for first-home owners on properties worth up to $800,000.

Labor indicated plans for two multibillion-dollar Metro rail developments would be paused until the extent of cost blowouts and delays were better understood.

Federally, Anthony Albanese has grappled with a cost-of-living crisis, calls to provide greater detail about the voice to parliament and widespread social unrest in Alice Springs.

Popular support for the Greens remained at 12 per cent, consistent with September’s Newspoll and well above the party’s primary vote of 9.6 per cent at the 2019 election.

The combined vote of other independent and minor parties had ticked up from 13 per cent to 15 per cent since last year, but was marginally down since the last election.

Mr Perrottet on Sunday announced the government’s stamp duty reform would be expanded if he were re-elected in March to allow for homeowners to continue with annual land tax payments once they upsized to larger homes.