Polling numbers suggest Labor majority a stretch for Minns

The latest Newspoll will concern Labor leader Chris Minn, with a four-point decline demonstrating voters are becoming sceptical about the alternative offering.

NSW Labor Leader Chris Minns. Picture: NewsWire/Monique Harmer

Whatever way you look at it, the latest Newspoll will concern Labor leader Chris Minns.

After the halcyon days of the John Barilaro trade commissioner scandal, a dip in Labor’s artificially high polling numbers was inevitable. But the four-point decline in the party’s popular support demonstrates voters are becoming sceptical about the alternative ­offering.

Even with the government doing its utmost to portray itself as beset by crisis, voters seem to be warming to the idea of 16 years of Coalition governance a month out from the March 25 election. Labor MPs will say this tightening was expected, but the slide will raise questions about whether the party’s electoral strategy is ­effective.

Despite Newspoll surveying voters just days after the resignation of finance minister Damien Tudehope, and Peter Poulos in the upper house being sacked over an explicit images scandal, the ­Coalition’s numbers have improved across the board: 2PP, primary, and Dominic Perrottet’s satisfaction and preferred premier rating.

Perrottet’s improving satisfaction rating and lead as preferred premier over Minns suggests many voters have been impressed and perhaps surprised by his pragmatic, technocratic approach as they have become more attuned to state politics. His numbers are even better than those of former premier Gladys Berejiklian ahead of the 2019 state election.

As for Minns, despite heading in the wrong direction, his numbers remain good for a state opposition leader. His problem is that despite the troubles facing this government, Perrottet isn’t Scott Morrison, nor do voters seem to despise his government. The one bright spot for Minns? Nearly one-in-two voters believe its time to give someone else a chance to govern. A month is still a lot of time, but without a Michael Daley-like collapse from either side, these polling numbers dispel the prospect of either side forming a majority in their own right.

NSW Premier Dominic Perrottet. Picture: NewsWire/Monique Harmer

NSW appears headed towards its first hung parliament since 1991. If the Newspoll result was ­repeated on March 25, Labor would take four seats off the government, leaving them with 42 MPs in the lower house, compared with the Coalition’s 41.

It would also leave independents such as Alex Greenwich, Greg Piper and Joe McGirr in a powerful position. The last time independents held the balance of power, the Greiner Liberal government was pushed into introducing fixed four-year terms. Besides the Greens and Kiama ­independent Gareth Ward, determining who the crossbench would support in a hung parliament is the subject of considerable ­conjecture.

Greenwich and Piper have already indicated the strength of the respective party’s pokies reform will be a priority in determining who they support in a hung parliament. Liberal strategists believe former Shooters, Fishers and Farmers MPs-turned-independents Roy Butler and Philip Donato would side with the Coalition.

Sources on the crossbench say in a hung parliament, Labor will likely need 43 seats to feel comfortable about reaching the 47 MPs necessary to form government. With 26 days until the state election, the trend is not Labor’s friend.