Crime and cost of living is creating a perfect storm for Anthony Albanese in Victoria and nationally

The implications for Labor at a federal level from the Werribee by-election would be inconsequential without a federal election just around the corner.

The swing against Labor in the weekend’s Victorian state by-election in the party’s heartland of Werribee will be sounding alarm bells in the national campaign office.

The implications for Labor at a federal level from the Werribee by-election would be inconsequential without a federal election just around the corner. But it matters for one simple reason.

As one senior Liberal said: “it shows our suspicions about Victoria were correct, they have a lot of s. t on their liver, and Albo is up next”.

The key issues were cost of living and crime – the latter being an issue Peter Dutton has successfully engineered into a national issue. And it is those issues that will feature as the top order ones in every other seat at the next federal contest.

This is an oddity but a dangerous environment for the Albanese government.

Victorian Premier Jacinta Allan on Sunday morning. Picture: NewsWire/Valeriu Campan

Crime has rarely had such a profile or a level of concern among voters in the context of a federal poll.

Combine this with the collapse in living standards for most Australians and Albanese is facing the perfect storm.

While Labor would perhaps rightly argue Werribee was not influenced by federal factors, considering there was enough to be angry about with the state Labor government, it could nevertheless be an accurate reflection of what is happening at the national level.

And it gives a sense of ‘why’ around Albanese’s backflip last week to tear up Labor’s national platform to support mandatory minimum sentencing for hate crimes.

The swing against the Allan Labor government was horrific in Werribee, in Melbourne’s south west, at almost 16 per cent on primary vote.

It is horrific because it is in Labor’s heartland.

While it crosses over with Labor-held seats federally including Richard Marles’ seat of Corio, Hawke and Lalor, none of these seats are considered in play for the federal election.

But if this is the level of hostility Victorians have against Labor in this region, one can only imagine what it’s like in more contestable electorates.

The take-out from the swings against Labor that have national similarities is that they have not had a significant transference to the Coalition at a primary vote level.

This is true of the national polls.

Peter Dutton during Question Time at Parliament House in Canberra. Picture: NewsWire/Martin Ollman

Newspoll has shown the erosion of the federal Labor vote – to 31 per cent in the last poll – but the failure of the Coalition to lift its primary vote above 40 per cent, which is where it would need to be to be competitive.

On the other hand, at a 2pp level, where it ultimately matters, the swing to the Liberals is near 10 per cent in Werribee. And when you have a contest where they are up to 15 candidates, it just shows that preferences can spray everywhere.

This result shows more than ever how critical preferences are going to be at this coming federal election. While they are always critical to outcomes in close contests, in this case it may be even more so.

Just look at Prahran, the other Victorian state by-election at the weekend. The Liberals have claimed this seat from the Greens.

This is extraordinary on the face of it.

But caution needs to be applied in the reading of this result, considering it was a former Labor candidate running as an independent and preferencing the Liberals ahead of the Greens that has produced this result.

There aren’t going to be many if any circumstances where this sort of arrangement is going to be repeated at a federal level.

Yet the broader take-out from the by-elections cannot be denied. This is a sharp rejection of Labor in a state where the left has dominated for the past decade.

But it wasn’t a rejection of the left entirely. Legalise Cannabis and Victorian Socialists did well also.

But if the rejection of Labor is happening in Victoria, it will be happening on steroids elsewhere.

The danger for Albanese is that voters, in Victoria at least, are seeing the same lack of resolve at a federal level as they see at a state level. Picture: NewsWire/Monique Harmer

If nothing else it proves that Dutton has rightly identified crime as a key issue by tapping into the national sentiment – assisted by the immigration detainee debacle – to make it an issue at a federal level.

The danger for Albanese is that voters, in Victoria at least, are seeing the same lack of resolve at a federal level as they see at a state level.

The next time Victorians have an opportunity to express their anger at the Labor brand will be in the coming months at a federal election.

And it will be expressed in seats that don’t have the double-digit margins to buttress a revolt if it comes.

More broadly, the Werribee result will be a signal to the federal Coalition that if the government is on the nose, and the Coalition can meet the threshold in the public’s mind that they are competent, they will benefit.

This means Dutton will need to perform well for the Coalition to get the benefit.

Beyond that it just reinforces the fact that it is not a good time to be the incumbent.