Allan and Albanese on notice after Werribee voters revolt

Premier Jacinta Allan. Picture: NewsWire / Nadir Kinani

Almost 28 years ago, Labor’s surprise Mitcham by-election victory proved to be a portent of Jeff Kennett’s shock defeat two years later in the 1999 Victorian election.

A quarter of a century on, Premier Jacinta Allan should be asking herself if Werribee voters have sent her the same “your time is up” message ahead of the 2026 election.

As at late Saturday, Werribee — traditionally the heart of Labor’s heartland in Victoria — was down to the wire with voters sending a massive protest vote Allan’s way.

Labor’s primary vote has crashed by a staggering double-digit figure, at one point it was down 16 per cent, and while the Liberal primary vote had only jumped by a few per cent, it was a historic blow for Labor in the outer west of Melbourne.

While the final result was not locked in, the take-out from the by-election was clearly an emphatic wake-up call for Allan and Labor — and Prime Minister Anthony Albanese.

Werribee was shaping as a tough night for Labor, even if it holds on. Questions will now be asked internally about whether Allan is the right figure to lead the party’s bid for a fourth term.

Addressing Labor faithful on Saturday night, Allan was at pains to tell not just Werribee voters, but all voters, that her government was listening to them. She then went on to concede more needed to be done. “We have to do more,” she said, referring to crime and cost of living.

The PM would be feeling anxious about the result because the voters of Werribee are the same outer-suburban voters federal opposition leader Peter Dutton is targeting at this year’s election.

And clearly, based on Saturday night’s count, many want to see the back of Labor at a state level. Cost of living, poor local roads, street crime has fanned a growing feeling of neglect among the voters of Werribee.

But there are some issues for Brad Battin and Peter Dutton in this still-moving vote; that being disaffected Labor voters seemed more willing to jump to independent candidates rather than the Liberals.

As at 1am Sunday, the Liberals pulled ahead of the Greens and favoured by preference flows are in a better position than the Greens to claim the electorate. The nine per cent two party preferred swing to the Liberals in Prahran was strong. For the Liberals to win a seat from the Greens is a remarkable turn around for the party in Melbourne’s inner suburbs.

But Saturday was all about Werribee and what it means for Allan and Albanese. The question the PM will be asking is will voters in Werribee now put their baseball bats away or swing them even harder at the next opportunity which is, of course, the federal election.

And if this mood in Melbourne’s outer west reflects a broader discontent in Labor heartland across the nation Albanese faces a major challenge to win a second term.