Allan and Albanese on notice after Werribee voters revolt

Premier Jacinta Allan. Picture: NewsWire / Nadir Kinani

Almost 28 years ago, Labor’s surprise Mitcham by-election victory proved to be a portent of Jeff Kennett’s shock defeat two years later in the 1999 Victorian election.

A quarter of a century on, Premier Jacinta Allan should be asking herself if Werribee voters have sent her the same “your time is up” message ahead of the 2026 election.

As at late Saturday, Werribee — traditionally the heart of Labor’s heartland in Victoria — was down to the wire with voters sending a massive protest vote Allan’s way.

Labor’s primary vote has crashed by a staggering 16 per cent and while the Liberal primary vote had only jumped by a few per cent, it was a historic blow for Labor in the outer west of Melbourne.

While the final result was not locked in, the take-out from the by-election was clearly an emphatic wake-up call for Allan and Labor — and Prime Minister Anthony Albanese.

Werribee was shaping as a tough night for Labor, even if it holds on. Questions will now be asked internally about whether Allan is the right figure to lead the party’s bid for a fourth term.

Addressing Labor faithful on Saturday night, Allan was at pains to tell not just Werribee voters, but all voters, that her government was listening to them. She then went on to concede more needed to be done. “We have to do more,” she said, referring to crime and cost of living.

The PM would be feeling anxious about the result because the voters of Werribee are the same outer-suburban voters federal opposition leader Peter Dutton is targeting at this year’s election.

And clearly, based on Saturday night’s count, many want to see the back of Labor at a state level. Cost of living, poor local roads, street crime has fanned a growing feeling of neglect among the voters of Werribee.

But there are some issues for Brad Battin and Peter Dutton in this still-moving vote; that being disaffected Labor voters seemed more willing to jump to independent candidates rather than the Liberals.

As at 10.30pm, the Liberals pulled ahead of the Greens and the Liberals had not given up hope and believe preference flows are more than likely to favour them.

The nine per cent two party preferred swing to the Liberals in Prahran was strong. Prahran’s vote was a strong showing for the Liberals.

But Saturday was all about Werribee and what it means for Allan and Albanese. The question the PM will be asking is will voters in Werribee now put their baseball bats away or swing them even harder at the next opportunity which is, of course, the federal election.

And if this mood in Melbourne’s outer west reflects a broader discontent in Labor heartland across the nation, then Albanese faces a major challenge to win a second term.