Covid casualty: South Australian Liberals on brink of election defeat

Steven Marshall looks set to become Australia’s first post-Covid political casualty, facing defeat in an SA election which would rob Scott Morrison of a key ally.

Premier Steven Marshall ends the final day of campaigning with a drink at the Golden Grove Tavern, in the northeast Adelaide suburb of Surrey Downs. Picture: Tom Huntley

Steven Marshall looks set to become Australia’s first post-Covid political casualty, facing defeat in a South Australian election which would rob Prime Minister Scott Morrison of his key ally in national cabinet and provide an ugly curtain-raiser for the Liberals to the federal poll.

The final Newspoll of the SA election campaign commissioned exclusively for The Weekend Australian shows Labor improved its already-strong position over the four-week campaign to a 54-46 two-party preferred lead, up from 53-47 three weeks ago.

Worse for Mr Marshall, Labor leader Peter Malinauskas continues to be preferred premier and has a higher satisfaction rating, leading 54 to 47.

In the entire history of Newspoll only one premier has held on while lagging behind their opponent as the state’s preferred leader – making the prospect of Mr Marshall becoming a one-term premier very real.

The collapse in support for Mr Marshall – who opened SA borders in November with a subsequent Omicron surge – confirms the challenge facing incumbent governments which were hugely popular at the height of Covid but are now struggling to manage the exit from the pandemic.

 

While the campaign has been fought on state issues – the Liberals running on their strong economic record versus Labor on ambulance ramping and increased health funding – strategists on both sides also believe the SA Liberal vote has been undermined in part by the unpopularity of the federal government. And in an echo of the 2018 “Mediscare” campaign, Labor has inflicted vast damage on the Liberals with an ­aggressive ambulance ramping campaign devised by Labor ad guru Dee Madigan, elements of which have been declared mis­leading by Electoral Commission SA.

The fact that Labor kept running its ramping advertisements on Friday despite the ECSA ruling prompted one of the strongest outbursts from Treasurer Rob Lucas in a 40-year career which ends with his retirement on Saturday, labelling them “despicable lies”.

“Labor’s campaign slogan should really be ‘Lie like your life depends on it’,” Mr Lucas said in the final statement of his career.

While Prime Minister Scott Morrison was absent from SA in the second half of the campaign, federal Labor leader Anthony ­Albanese moved to bask in the backdraft of Mr Malinauskas’ popularity by joining him in Adelaide on the final two days, spending Thursday night at a northern suburbs pub visit.

“I’ve got to say that I’ve got confidence from last night,” Mr Albanese said. “We were talking with people, including a bunch of young nursing students. The response to Peter was extremely supportive. It was very, very positive.”

In a pointer to the federal poll, Mr Albanese also said he had been watching SA Labor’s ramping campaign, declaring it an issue of “huge concern” to SA voters and saying that Labor would run hard on health at the coming election.

Labor leader Peter Malinauskas rallies the troops at the Royal Adelaide Hospital on Friday. Picture: Tricia Watkinson

The one upside in Newspoll for the SA Liberals is that their attacks on Labor’s hefty $3.1bn in election promises has stemmed the flow of voters to conservative minor parties, with the Liberal primary vote up one point to 38.

However, the Labor primary vote has jumped two points to 41, and with the Green vote at 10 per cent, this translates to a seemingly unassailable eight-point two-party preferred lead for Labor.

As such, Mr Marshall needs a miracle in the form of big swings to Labor in seats it already holds, but strong performances on the ground by Liberal members in the four most vulnerable electorates held by less than 2 per cent.

Mr Marshall issued an eleventh-hour plea for SA voters to look beyond Labor’s scare campaign and focus on the state’s economic turnaround.

Made aware of today’s Newspoll, he said: “There is no doubt this election will be close. I trust voters to make the right call. I am confident that voters will not risk it all with Labor. They know that changing the government now will risk our recovery plan and will cost us precious time and money, a cost our state cannot afford.”

Mr Marshall implored voters to reflect on the government’s record cutting power and water bills, land and payroll tax and reducing the emergency services levy, all in keeping with promises made when the Liberals were finally elected in 2018 ending Labor’s 16-year rule.

“Our policies have reduced the average family household bill by $1092 a year and we’re committed to further savings for families,” he said.

“Voters understand that Labor’s big spending means they will risk paying more through higher bills that will make families worse off and will cost jobs.”

Mr Malinauskas dismissed Mr Marshall’s attack and said the government did not deserve to be re-elected due to its neglect of patient care. He seized on the fact that on three occasions this week people died while waiting for ambulances which arrived late.

“South Australians are calling triple-0 and the ambulance isn’t turning up on time,” he said. “People are dying. Steven Marshall’s priority is spending $662m on a basketball stadium. If elected, I will scrap the stadium and instead invest that money in our health system. That’s my priority.”

Mr Malinauskas said that while ending ramping was his first priority, his plan for government went beyond health and that more needed to be done for jobs and training in a state that this week recorded the highest jobless rate in the nation for the second consecutive month.

“I have a plan to invest for the long-term in education, training and skills,” he said. “My policies are not just for the next four years, but for the next generation.”

“South Australians face a clear choice: my fresh and united Labor team with a plan for the future, or a tired and deeply divided Liberal Party under Steven Marshall.”

Labor needs four seats to govern with the support of an independent, and five for a majority.

However, there is volatility among two conservative ex-Liberal independents in Mount Gambier and the Adelaide Hills who could potentially be wooed by Labor due to the party’s long list of promises for those regions, meaning Labor could potentially form a minority government if it only picks up three seats.

A uniform reflection of today’s Newspoll would render such a scenario irrelevant.